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NCAAF MatchupsSat 2:30 PM ET
Colgate Red Raiders logo
Colgate
Red Raiders
3-1
versus
Villanova Wildcats logo
Villanova
Wildcats
2-2
NCAAF · COLGATE at VILLAN

Your Picks on Colgate vs Villanova

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Averagejoe

25-18 record · 58.14% wins
Last 30 days · NCAAF

$500 pick on the total

Colgate Red Raiders vs Villanova Wildcats Predictions September 26, 2026

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET

Article updated Sep 25, 12:12 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Villanova will beat Colgate 23-20, with Ja’briel Mace’s versatility and the Wildcats’ late touchdown drive at LIU providing the narrow offensive edge. Colgate’s defense supplies the stronger betting argument: it has allowed no more than 14 points in any of four games. Under 46.5 (-113) is the best bet at the supplied price; the spread is a Pass.

Colgate Red Raiders vs Villanova Wildcats prediction and best bet

The Wildcats get the forecast, but Colgate’s defense makes this a difficult favorite to back. Villanova showed it could rescue a close game when Pat McQuaide directed an eight-play, 85-yard touchdown drive to beat LIU. Mace’s production as both a runner and receiver gives that offense multiple ways to attack.

Under 46.5 (-113) is the strongest wager. Colgate’s four-game scoring defense offers a broader foundation than Villanova’s one dramatic finish: the Raiders rank fifth in the FCS at 11.0 points allowed per game. Pair that with Villanova’s one conversion in eight third-down attempts against LIU, and the case favors fewer successful scoring possessions. Forecast confidence is low.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and broadcast: Saturday, September 26, 2026, on ESPN+.

Rankings and record: Villanova is No. 22 and Colgate No. 23 in the AFCA Coaches Poll. Villanova enters at 2-2.

Weather: The September 23 National Weather Service forecast for Villanova, Pennsylvania, called for partly sunny conditions, a high near 68°F and a 30% shower chance Saturday.

SportsJaw odds: Colgate +2.5 (-110), Villanova -2.5 (-110). Moneylines: Colgate +106, Villanova -136. Total: Over 46.5 (-113) or Under 46.5 (-113).

Colgate Red Raiders outlook

Colgate’s defensive results deserve substantial weight. The Raiders have held all four 2026 opponents to 14 points or fewer. Their eight interceptions lead the FCS, while their 0.364 red-zone defense ranks second. Those numbers describe two distinct routes to limiting scoring: ending possessions with takeaways and resisting opponents who get close to the end zone.

The late-game results also challenge the Villanova pick. Colgate has shut out both Patriot League opponents in the fourth quarter and outscored them 10-0 during those periods. McQuaide’s finish at LIU is encouraging for the Wildcats, but Colgate has its own evidence of closing games defensively. A tight fourth quarter would hardly make Villanova an automatic choice.

The Raiders have offensive threats, too. Matt Fogler leads the Patriot League with 92.0 receiving yards per game and four touchdown catches. He caught eight passes for 137 yards and a touchdown against Cornell. Danny Shaban ranks second in the league at 132.3 rushing yards per game, including 134 yards on 29 carries against Cornell. That workload offers a plausible route to sustained possessions, although it is no guarantee of controlling this game. Fogler’s production gives Villanova a reason to respect more than the rushing attack.

Villanova Wildcats outlook

Villanova’s September 19 win at LIU contained both the reason to pick the Wildcats and the reason to hesitate. They won 20-16, outgained LIU 392-327 and forced three turnovers. Yet they needed McQuaide’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Mace with 1:08 remaining to take the lead. Moving the ball did not translate into comfortable separation.

Mace was central to the victory. He rushed for 97 yards on 14 carries, caught three passes for 35 yards and added 38 kickoff-return yards. His 170 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns show how many different contributions he made. For this matchup, his rushing and receiving production are the most useful evidence of offensive flexibility.

Brandon Binkowski added six receptions for 113 yards against LIU, bringing his four-game totals to 18 catches and 259 yards. His receiving production gives Villanova another option against a defense with eight interceptions.

The concern remains third down. Converting one of eight chances at LIU is a poor recent result to carry into this matchup, even though one game should not be treated as a season-long rate. Villanova’s three takeaways helped it win that afternoon; expecting another three would place too much weight on a single performance.

Key matchup factors

Possession outcomes matter more here than the rankings. Villanova generated yardage at LIU but struggled on third down. Colgate has been effective at preventing points even when opponents reach the red zone. The forecast asks Villanova to improve its finishing enough to win, while the Under allows room for that improvement without requiring an offensive breakout.

As of September 23, SportsJaw’s community leaders were Villanova -2.5 (-110) and Over 46.5 (-113). Those are member preferences, separate from the statistical case. The Under goes against that total preference because of Colgate’s defensive results. The modest shower forecast carries little weight in the selection; a chance of rain alone is insufficient reason to expect disrupted offense.

Colgate Red Raiders vs Villanova Wildcats spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Villanova -2.5 (-110) and Colgate +2.5 (-110). The projected three-point Villanova win would cover the favorite’s line, but only narrowly. That leaves little cushion for an uncertain forecast.

Villanova has won eight consecutive meetings, including 24-17 in 2025. That history favors the Wildcats as context, while Colgate’s current defense argues against expecting separation. Staying within one possession would not necessarily cash Colgate +2.5. Neither side offers a convincing enough margin at the supplied spread to warrant a wager.

Colgate Red Raiders vs Villanova Wildcats total prediction

Total recommendation: Under 46.5 (-113). Colgate’s four consecutive games allowing 14 points or fewer anchor the bet. Villanova’s recent third-down struggles add support, though the Wildcats’ 392 yards at LIU warn against assuming their offense will remain quiet.

The projected 43 points leave a modest cushion below 46.5. Turnovers are the principal complication: they can stop drives, but they can also create short fields and quick scoring opportunities. Mace, Binkowski and Fogler supply further scoring risk. The Under is a measured selection, supported chiefly by Colgate’s repeated defensive results.

Colgate Red Raiders vs Villanova Wildcats projected score

Game forecast: Villanova 23, Colgate 20. The Wildcats get a slight edge from the offensive options demonstrated at LIU and McQuaide’s successful closing drive. That is enough for a winner selection, with low confidence.

The strongest counterargument is Colgate’s scoring defense. This projection requires Villanova to exceed the 14-point ceiling every previous Colgate opponent has faced this season. Shaban and Fogler also give the Raiders credible ways to win outright. Those competing strengths keep the spread a Pass. Under 46.5 (-113) remains the single official SportsJaw wager, with Colgate’s defensive consistency carrying more weight than the expectation of another Villanova late-game escape.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

COLGATE20

VILLAN23

Projected winner Villanova WildcatsConfidenceSlight Lean — Villanova Wildcats
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Villanova Wildcats -2.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Villanova Wildcats -2.5 (-110) and Colgate Red Raiders +2.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 46.5

Editorial pick at publication: Under 46.5 (-113)

Sources

  • Villanova University AthleticsPrevious-game context: McQuaide Leads Wildcats on Game-Winning Touchdown Drive in Closing Minutes of 20-16 Win at LIU
  • Colgate University AthleticsThirteen Colgate Football Notes at Villanova
  • Patriot LeagueThis Week in Patriot League Football – Week Four (9.23.26)

SportsJaw Red Raiders vs Wildcats game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Red Raiders vs Wildcats matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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