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  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Wisconsin Badgers vs Penn St. Nittany Lions
Sat 5:00 PM ET
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Wisconsin
Badgers24
1-1
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Penn St. Nittany Lions logo
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Nittany Lions20
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Team1234T
Wisconsin Badgers0731424
Penn St. Nittany Lions3143020
NCAAF · Wisconsin Badgers at Penn St. Nittany Lions

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Wisconsin Badgers vs Penn St. Nittany Lions prediction, odds and best bet

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET

Venue: Beaver Stadium — University Park, PA

Article updated Sep 26, 11:40 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Penn State will beat Wisconsin 27-20 in our forecast, with its rushing production and recent defensive performance supplying the strongest matchup case. Wisconsin’s productive passing combination and Penn State receiver Koby Howard’s absence make laying 10 points less attractive. Neither the supplied spread nor the 44-point total offers a convincing betting edge, so the official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Penn St. Nittany Lions prediction and best bet

Penn State gets the pick because its recent success includes substantial contributions from both offense and defense. The Nittany Lions gained 573 yards against Buffalo while allowing 173, and their 304 rushing yards suggest a way to attack Wisconsin without relying entirely on a receiving group missing Howard.

Wisconsin brings a credible response through Colton Joseph and Tyrell Henry. Their production against Eastern Michigan makes a competitive game a reasonable forecast, although that performance came against a different defense. Penn State’s home advantage and broader recent production favor the Nittany Lions to win. The seven-point projected margin leaves enough uncertainty around both betting markets to keep the best bet at Pass.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 2026, at 5 p.m. ET, or 4 p.m. CT.

Venue: West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania. This is Penn State’s Homecoming game.

Broadcast: Peacock.

Records: Wisconsin Badgers 1-1; Penn St. Nittany Lions 2-0.

SportsJaw odds: Wisconsin Badgers +10 (-110); Penn St. Nittany Lions -10 (-110). Moneyline: Wisconsin Badgers +310; Penn St. Nittany Lions -400. Total: Over 44 (-105); Under 44 (-115).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 44 (-110); Under 44 (-110). Moneyline: Wisconsin +306; Penn State -385.

Wisconsin Badgers outlook

Wisconsin’s 54-10 victory over Eastern Michigan on September 19 gives the Badgers an encouraging offensive performance to build upon. They gained 479 yards, with Joseph passing for 362 yards and three touchdowns. He added 46 rushing yards and another touchdown, accounting for 408 total yards. His 302 first-half passing yards show how much production arrived before halftime.

Henry was central to that performance, catching 14 passes for 160 yards and a 13-yard touchdown. That workload makes his connection with Joseph a natural focus for this matchup. If Wisconsin can sustain drives through that pairing, Penn State will have less room to separate on the scoreboard. The challenge is reproducing that output against a defense coming off a strong game of its own.

Wisconsin’s scoring also needs context. Alongside two rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns against Eastern Michigan, the Badgers scored on a fumble return and a blocked-field-goal return. Those contributions helped swell the final score; forecasting another 54-point performance would require too much. Wisconsin has outscored its two home opponents 90-19, but Saturday asks the Badgers to carry that production onto the road.

Penn St. Nittany Lions outlook

Penn State enters with a 127-22 scoring advantage across its three nonconference games. The September 19 win over Buffalo finished 55-13 and included seven gains of at least 20 yards. Its 304 rushing yards within a 573-yard offensive day give the forecast a concrete foundation: Penn State recently generated substantial offense on the ground as well as big gains overall.

The defensive performance was equally useful to the win case. Buffalo gained 173 total yards, including 60 through the air, and converted one of 15 third downs. Penn State also forced two takeaways. Those results favor the Nittany Lions, although Wisconsin’s Joseph-Henry combination presents a separate test. One opponent’s struggles should not become an automatic prediction for the next.

Howard’s absence is the clearest concern. Coach Matt Campbell said September 23 that the receiver would miss an extended period, without giving a return timetable. Howard had 12 receptions for 344 yards and three total touchdowns through three games. Removing that production makes another offensive rout harder to project. Penn State’s rushing performance offers a potential alternative, but the remaining receivers still have to absorb the lost contribution.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Wisconsin can sustain passing production while Penn State builds drives on the ground. Successful rushing possessions could reduce the burden on Penn State’s receivers. Wisconsin needs enough offensive answers to prevent the home team from steadily widening the margin.

Opinion is divided on the spread. At the September 26 update, 15:25 UTC, the blended consensus favored Penn State -10 (-110) at 63%. Its modeled equivalent sample contained 380 Penn State selections among 603 combined selections, not observed sportsbook tickets. SportsJaw members and qualified handicappers each favored Wisconsin +10 (-108) at 67%. Those distinct measures describe preferences, not win probabilities, and the disagreement fits a matchup with a clearer winner than cover.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Penn St. Nittany Lions spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Wisconsin Badgers +10 (-108) and Penn St. Nittany Lions -10 (-110). The 27-20 forecast falls inside Wisconsin’s cushion, but a projected margin alone is too thin a reason to bet.

Howard’s absence and Wisconsin’s passing production strengthen the Badgers’ cover argument. Penn State’s recent rushing and defensive results supply the counterargument: the Nittany Lions could create a wider gap if Wisconsin struggles to extend possessions. With those competing possibilities, neither side earns an official recommendation at the supplied price.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Penn St. Nittany Lions total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 44 (-110) and Under 44 (-110). The forecast produces 47 points, giving the Over a slight directional lean but little room for error.

Both teams scored more than 50 last week, yet Wisconsin benefited from two return touchdowns and Penn State now faces Howard’s absence. Penn State’s defensive showing also argues against simply extending those scoring totals into Saturday. The blended total consensus favors Over 44 (-110) at 87%; that popularity adds no independent scoring evidence strong enough to turn the lean into a wager.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Penn St. Nittany Lions Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Penn State 27, Wisconsin 20. Confidence is medium. Penn State’s rushing output and defensive performance against Buffalo, together with its 3-0 start and home setting, make the Nittany Lions the better choice to win.

The strongest counterargument combines Wisconsin’s productive passing partnership with Howard’s absence from Penn State’s offense. That combination could keep Wisconsin close or threaten the forecast if Joseph repeats his recent output. The projection gives Penn State enough offense to prevail while allowing Wisconsin a competitive scoring day. It favors Wisconsin against the spread and the Over directionally, but neither margin is persuasive enough for a bet. The single official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Badgers20

Nittany Lions27

Projected winner Penn St. Nittany LionsConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Wisconsin Badgers +10 (-108) and Penn St. Nittany Lions -10 (-110).

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 44 (-110) and Under 44 (-110).

Sources

  • University of Wisconsin AthleticsBadgers open Big Ten play at No. 13 Penn State
  • StateCollege.comPenn State WR Koby Howard Out for ‘Extended Period of Time’
  • Penn State AthleticsGame Notes: No. 13/14 Penn State vs. Wisconsin
#WisconsinBadgers#PennStNittanyLions

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Badgers vs Nittany Lions game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Badgers vs Nittany Lions matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Wisconsin Badgers+350 → +310Moved
  • Moneyline · Penn St. Nittany Lions-455 → -400Moved
  • Spread · Wisconsin Badgers+11.5 (-115) → +10 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Penn St. Nittany Lions-11.5 (-105) → -10 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over42.5 (-112) → 44 (-105)Moved
  • Total · Under42.5 (-108) → 44 (-115)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Wisconsin Badgers
1-1 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 2-8-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Penn St. Nittany Lions
2-0 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 4-5-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-09-19T05:59:11.845Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2024-10-26Penn St. Nittany Lions 28 · Wisconsin Badgers 13
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Wisconsin Badgers defeated Penn St. Nittany Lions 24-20

Wisconsin Badgers defeated Penn St. Nittany Lions 24-20 on September 26, 2026, a 4-point decision in the series. Wisconsin Badgers' strongest period was the 4th quarter, when it outscored its opponent 14-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Wisconsin Badgers +10 (-110) spread, Wisconsin Badgers covered, while the 44 total pushed.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerPenn St. Nittany LionsLoss
  • SpreadPass on Wisconsin Badgers +10 (-108) and Penn St. Nittany Lions -10 (-110).Pass
  • TotalPass on Over 44 (-110) and Under 44 (-110).Pass

Tipster picks

  • VfernandezSpread · Wisconsin Badgers +10 (-110)Win
  • JoeThomasTotal · Over 44.5 (-110)Loss
  • MoneymouthSpread · Penn St. Nittany Lions -10 (-108)Loss
  • ThinkmakegrowSpread · Wisconsin Badgers +10 (-108)Win