NCAAF · USF at BGREEN
Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)Your Picks on South Florida vs Bowling Green
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The unbeaten Bulls bring encouraging offensive production into this matchup, but two lopsided results against different opponents offer limited guidance on the betting margin.
South Florida visits Bowling Green on Sept. 26 at 5 p.m. in this 2026 college football matchup. Bowling Green identifies the game as its Homecoming contest. The Bulls enter 3-0 after beating Delaware State 59-17, while the Falcons are 0-3 following a 55-7 loss at Iowa State.
South Florida produced a season-high 611 yards in its latest win. Michael Van Buren completed 23 of 32 passes for 300 yards and one touchdown. D.J. Crowther added 101 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on eight carries. Those performances provide an encouraging offensive backdrop, although they do not establish how efficiently the Bulls will move the ball against Bowling Green.
Bowling Green surrendered 365 rushing yards and seven plays of at least 30 yards against Iowa State. That makes containing South Florida's rushing attack a particular concern. The Falcons also allowed kickoff and punt returns for touchdowns, so the entire 55-point total cannot be attributed to their defense.
Jay Kastantin completed 8 of 17 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in that defeat. Winn Sharp's 59-yard touchdown reception accounted for much of that passing production, leaving limited evidence of sustained passing success from this outing.
South Florida's final score also needs context. Delaware State trailed just 21-17 with 1:18 remaining in the first half before the Bulls scored the final 38 points. Their 31-0 second-half advantage was decisive, but repeating that separation against another opponent remains uncertain.
SportsJaw lists South Florida at -1,000 moneyline and -17.5 (-110) spread, with Bowling Green at +650 moneyline and +17.5 (-110) spread. Both over and under 49.5 are priced at -110.
The recent results favor South Florida directionally, but do not establish value at these prices. The total likewise requires assumptions about scoring that these games alone cannot settle. Pass, with no projected score or winner selection.