San Diego St. Aztecs vs Toledo Rockets Predictions

Recent results offer competing signals

Toledo hosts San Diego State on September 26 in the 2026 college football season. The Rockets enter at 2-1 after beating Temple 49-48 in overtime, while the Aztecs are 1-2 following a 26-13 home loss to James Madison.

Toledo’s athletic department reported that John Alan Richter completed 38 of 51 passes for 429 yards and four touchdowns against Temple. That performance demonstrates the passing attack’s potential, and eight consecutive home wins dating to the start of 2025 add context to Toledo’s home advantage.

The same result supplies a substantial caution. Toledo needed a late comeback and overtime to beat a team that scored 48 points. Richter’s production supports optimism about the offense, but that escape provides little assurance of a comfortable win against San Diego State.

The Aztecs also bring concerns. James Madison gained 417 yards and forced two San Diego State turnovers. San Diego State trailed 19-0 at halftime before scoring both of its touchdowns in the second half. That slow start weighs against the visitors, although one game cannot establish how their offense will perform against Toledo.