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NCAAF PicksSat 2:00 PM ET
Southern Illinois Salukis logo
Southern Illinois
Salukis
3-2
versus
South Dakota Coyotes logo
South Dakota
Coyotes
4-2
NCAAF · S.ILL at SDKOT

Your Picks on Southern Illinois vs South Dakota

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
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Southern Illinois Salukis vs South Dakota Coyotes Predictions October 10, 2026

Game time: October 10, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET

Venue: The DakotaDome — Vermillion, SD

Article updated Oct 7, 9:02 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

South Dakota will beat Southern Illinois 31-24 in our October 10 forecast, with the Coyotes’ productive passing and rushing performances providing the strongest matchup reason. Southern Illinois brings enough passing production to threaten a close finish, while South Dakota’s latest rout leaned heavily on takeaways. Neither South Dakota -10.5 (+115) nor the 58.5 total offers a strong enough edge for an actionable wager.

Southern Illinois Salukis vs South Dakota Coyotes prediction and best bet

South Dakota is the pick to win, but the official betting recommendation is Pass. The Coyotes’ latest offensive performance gives them a reasonable path to controlling this matchup without needing another extraordinary turnover haul. Asking them to cover a double-digit spread is a separate, more demanding proposition.

Southern Illinois’ passing production makes the underdog competitive in this forecast. Its recent execution problems favor South Dakota, but treating those mistakes as inevitable would overstate the advantage. A seven-point projected margin reflects that tension: the Coyotes get the victory, while neither spread price earns a recommendation.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Southern Illinois Salukis at South Dakota Coyotes, Saturday, October 10, 2026. This is a 2026 college football matchup.

Venue: The DakotaDome in Vermillion, South Dakota.

Records and rankings: South Dakota is 4-2 overall and Southern Illinois is 3-3. Both are 1-1 in Missouri Valley Football Conference play. Southern Illinois’ October 5 update identified the Coyotes as No. 10 and the Salukis as No. 25.

SportsJaw moneylines: Southern Illinois +285; South Dakota -400.

SportsJaw spreads: Southern Illinois +10.5 (-270); South Dakota -10.5 (+115).

SportsJaw total: Over 58.5 (-114); Under 58.5 (-116).

Southern Illinois Salukis outlook

DJ Williams and Kyle Thomas give Southern Illinois a credible way to challenge the favorite. Williams threw for 288 yards against Youngstown State on October 3, with Thomas accounting for 155 receiving yards. The Salukis generated 387 total yards and 24 first downs in that 28-16 defeat, so their offense was hardly stationary.

The trouble came in sustaining and finishing possessions. Southern Illinois rushed for 99 yards, converted four of 14 third downs and committed 10 penalties for 75 yards. Those results suggest that cleaning up execution could matter as much as generating additional yardage.

A 10-7 halftime lead became a loss after Youngstown State won the second half 21-6. Williams’ third-quarter sack and fumble gave the Penguins possession at the Salukis’ 25, and they scored on the next play. Protecting possessions is central to Southern Illinois’ upset path.

South Dakota Coyotes outlook

South Dakota beat Indiana State 44-14 on October 3. Austyn Modrzewski completed 16 of 23 passes for 196 yards and three touchdowns, extending his run of starts with a touchdown pass to six. That performance supplies a sound reason to favor the Coyotes beyond the final margin.

Charles Pierre Jr. added 109 rushing yards on 15 carries and scored three total touchdowns. It was his 10th career 100-yard rushing game. His production gives this forecast a second offensive foundation rather than making it depend entirely on Modrzewski.

The defining feature of the victory was South Dakota’s five forced turnovers, which yielded 34 points. That was an excellent return, but forecasting a similar haul against Southern Illinois would be aggressive. The offense’s work through the air and on the ground is the more persuasive reason to select the Coyotes.

Key matchup factors

Possession quality matters more here than a simple comparison of last week’s scores. Southern Illinois can improve its scoring outlook by avoiding penalties and protecting the ball. South Dakota can strengthen its winning chances by making the Salukis repeatedly earn first downs rather than allowing their passing game to erase mistakes.

The strongest counterweight to South Dakota’s recent rout is the accepted September 26 result: Youngstown State beat the Coyotes 47-28. A common opponent is an imperfect measuring stick, but that loss argues against treating one dominant defensive afternoon as a reliable weekly standard.

Southern Illinois Salukis vs South Dakota Coyotes spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on South Dakota -10.5 (+115) and Southern Illinois +10.5 (-270). The projected seven-point margin favors a Salukis cover, but the price makes that a difficult wager to endorse.

At -270, Southern Illinois needs roughly a 73% cover probability to break even. South Dakota at +115 requires roughly 47%. These are price thresholds, not estimated cover chances. The recent performances justify picking a winner more readily than assigning either side the probability needed to demonstrate spread value.

Southern Illinois Salukis vs South Dakota Coyotes total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 58.5 (-114) and Under 58.5 (-116). The projected 55 points suggest an Under direction, but the modest gap leaves little room for a short-field touchdown or a more efficient Southern Illinois performance.

There are plausible scoring paths in both directions. Cleaner Salukis possessions could raise their output, while fewer South Dakota takeaways could reduce the easy scoring opportunities that shaped its latest win. Neither effect is dependable enough to turn the projected total into an official wager.

Southern Illinois Salukis vs South Dakota Coyotes projected score

Game forecast: South Dakota Coyotes 31, Southern Illinois Salukis 24. South Dakota’s recent quarterback and rushing production earn the winning pick. Southern Illinois’ passing threat and the Coyotes’ loss to Youngstown State keep confidence low.

The forecast anticipates a competitive game with South Dakota doing enough offensively to finish ahead. Official SportsJaw wager: Pass. Both the spread and total remain passes at their supplied prices.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

S.ILL24

SDKOT31

Projected winner South Dakota CoyotesConfidenceSlight Lean — Southern Illinois Salukis
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Southern Illinois Salukis +10.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on South Dakota Coyotes -10.5 (+115) and Southern Illinois Salukis +10.5 (-270).

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 58.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 58.5 (-114) and Under 58.5 (-116).

Sources

  • Youngstown State University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Guins Turn Up Intensity In Final 25 Minutes to Beat SIU
  • Southern Illinois University AthleticsSalukis, Redbirds to Kick Off at 3 p.m. on Homecoming
  • Dakota News NowUSD defense dominates in D-Days win over Indiana State

SportsJaw Salukis vs Coyotes game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Salukis vs Coyotes matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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