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NCAAF PicksSat 2:00 PM ET
SO
Southeast Missouri State
0-0
versus
LI
Lindenwood
0-0
NCAAF · SEMO at LIN

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Southeast Missouri State vs Lindenwood Predictions October 10, 2026

Game time: October 10, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Hunter Stadium — Saint Charles, MO

Article updated Oct 7, 12:30 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Southeast Missouri State will beat Lindenwood 23-21 on Saturday, October 10, with its rushing defense providing the strongest matchup advantage against quarterback Pops Battle. The Redhawks have a plausible route to a road win, but Lindenwood’s ball security makes the margin less convincing. Neither Southeast Missouri State -2.5 (-113) nor the 45.5-point total offers a strong enough edge for an official wager.

Southeast Missouri State vs Lindenwood prediction and best bet

Southeast Missouri State gets the nod in the 2026 Game Ball Brawl because its strongest defensive asset fits an important part of Lindenwood’s offense. Slowing Battle on the ground would put more pressure on the Lions to produce through the air. That is the central reason to favor the Redhawks in a close game.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. A likely winner is not automatically a worthwhile spread selection, and the projected two-point margin falls short of Southeast Missouri State -2.5 (-113). Lindenwood +2.5 (-113) also leaves too little room between the forecast and the line to justify a wager.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, October 10, 2026, at 1 p.m. CT.

Venue: Hunter Stadium in St. Charles, Missouri.

Records and rest: Southeast Missouri State is 2-3 overall and 0-0 in OVC play. Lindenwood is 1-3 overall and has lost three consecutive games. Both teams are coming off open dates.

Conference record: The OVC preview lists Lindenwood at 1-1 in conference play, while Southeast Missouri State’s preview lists the Lions at 1-0. Their overall record agrees.

SportsJaw odds: Southeast Missouri State moneyline -136; Lindenwood moneyline +106. Spread: Southeast Missouri State -2.5 (-113), Lindenwood +2.5 (-113). Total: Over 45.5 (-114), Under 45.5 (-116).

Southeast Missouri State outlook

The Redhawks allow 109.4 rushing yards per game, second in the OVC and 19th in the FCS. They held West Florida to 39 yards on 22 rushing attempts on September 26 and have gone two straight games without conceding a rushing touchdown. Those numbers give the defensive argument both a season foundation and recent reinforcement.

The limitation is that their latest defensive effort still ended in a 20-17 loss. Controlling the run can help Southeast Missouri State dictate how Lindenwood attacks, but it cannot carry the entire case for a comfortable victory.

John Anthony Jr. gives the Redhawks a productive receiving option with 14 catches for 265 yards and two touchdowns. The former Lindenwood player returns to St. Charles for this matchup. Jobe Bryant leads Southeast Missouri State with 18 receptions and ranks second on the team with 176 receiving yards. Their production gives the offense more than one established target.

Lindenwood outlook

Lindenwood’s losing streak includes defeats against Stony Brook, Missouri State and Eastern Michigan. The latest was a 29-3 loss at Eastern Michigan, where Will Graham supplied the Lions’ points with a 44-yard field goal. That result raises concern about scoring, although one outing should not become a prediction of another three-point performance.

Battle has 465 passing yards and one passing touchdown, alongside 182 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. His contributions in both phases make containing the quarterback an important assignment. Jalen Smith leads the Lions with 10 catches for 137 yards.

The strongest positive is ball security. Lindenwood had lost one fumble and thrown one interception through four games. Protecting possessions offers a practical route to staying close, particularly if the Lions struggle to generate quick scores. It does not guarantee long drives, but it can keep giveaways from adding to their offensive difficulties.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Southeast Missouri State’s overall rushing defense translates into control of Battle’s running opportunities. His three rushing touchdowns make that assignment consequential, but team rushing averages do not isolate performance against mobile quarterbacks. The matchup favors the Redhawks without settling the game.

Possession protection is the main counterweight. A Southeast Missouri State cover becomes harder if Lindenwood avoids giving the visitors short fields. The forecast therefore asks the Redhawks to earn their advantage through sustained offensive execution rather than assuming turnovers will create separation.

This is the fifth Game Ball Brawl, with the series tied 2-2. Lindenwood has won the last two meetings, including 30-13 on November 22, 2025. That history deserves consideration, but it carries less weight in this forecast than the current rushing-defense matchup. Both teams had an open date, so neither has an obvious scheduling advantage from that break.

Southeast Missouri State vs Lindenwood spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Southeast Missouri State -2.5 (-113) and Lindenwood +2.5 (-113). The Redhawks must win by at least three to cover, while the forecast calls for a two-point victory.

That projection points toward Lindenwood against the spread, but the difference is too narrow to treat as a reliable betting advantage. Southeast Missouri State’s defensive strength could create a larger margin; Lindenwood’s ball security could preserve a close finish. Neither side earns an official recommendation at these prices.

Southeast Missouri State vs Lindenwood total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 45.5 (-114) and Under 45.5 (-116). The projected 44 points sit below the line, and both teams’ latest results offer reasons to anticipate restrained scoring.

The gap is modest, however. Those recent scores are individual games against different opponents, not a dependable scoring baseline for this matchup. The rushing-defense evidence is more persuasive for choosing a winner than for pricing the combined total. Under 45.5 remains a forecast direction, not an actionable wager.

Southeast Missouri State vs Lindenwood projected score

Game forecast: Southeast Missouri State 23, Lindenwood 21. The Redhawks’ rushing defense supplies the deciding edge, while Lindenwood’s possession security and recent series success argue against expecting clear separation.

Confidence is low because the forecast depends on a specific defensive advantage translating into enough offense to win on the road. Southeast Missouri State is the projected winner; the single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass. Both the spread and total remain passes at the supplied prices.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

SEMO23

LIN21

Projected winner Southeast Missouri StateConfidenceSlight Lean — Lindenwood
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Lindenwood +2.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Southeast Missouri State -2.5 (-113) and Lindenwood +2.5 (-113)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 45.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 45.5 (-114) and Under 45.5 (-116)

Sources

  • Ohio Valley ConferenceFootball Previews - Week 6
  • Southeast Missouri State University AthleticsRedhawks Open OVC Play with Game Ball Brawl at Lindenwood Saturday

SportsJaw Southeast Missouri State vs Lindenwood game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. how our predictions work.

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