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NCAAF PicksSat 3:00 PM ET
MI
Mississippi Valley State
0-0
versus
Texas Southern Tigers logo
Texas Southern
Tigers
1-3
NCAAF · MVSU at txso

Your Picks on MVSU vs Texas Southern

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Mississippi Valley State vs Texas Southern Tigers Predictions October 10, 2026

Game time: October 10, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET

Venue: Shell Energy Stadium — Houston, TX

Article updated Oct 7, 12:39 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Texas Southern is projected to beat Mississippi Valley State 30-24, with At hean Renfro’s productive rushing performance offering the Tigers their clearest route to victory. His name is Athean Renfro, and his 101-yard outing is the strongest positive in an otherwise difficult recent result. Confidence is low, and neither Texas Southern -14.5 (-113) nor the total of 57.5 (-125) offers a compelling wager.

Mississippi Valley State vs Texas Southern Tigers prediction and best bet

Texas Southern gets the outright pick, but the official betting recommendation is Pass. The Tigers’ -850 moneyline signals a strong market preference, while their most recent performance warrants a much more cautious forecast. Texas Southern 30, Mississippi Valley State 24 reflects that tension.

The Delta Devils’ comeback victory over Prairie View A&M gives them a credible competitive case. Texas Southern’s rushing production offers a route to answering it. Neither argument is strong enough to turn the supplied spread or total into an official wager.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and matchup: Mississippi Valley State faces the Texas Southern Tigers on Saturday, October 10, in a 2026 college football game. The SWAC identifies it as a conference matchup.

Broadcast: SWAC TV.

Texas Southern record: 1-4 overall and 0-2 in SWAC play entering this matchup.

SportsJaw moneylines: Mississippi Valley State +500; Texas Southern -850.

SportsJaw spreads: Mississippi Valley State +14.5 (-113); Texas Southern -14.5 (-113).

SportsJaw total: Over 57.5 (-125); Under 57.5 (-125).

Mississippi Valley State outlook

Mississippi Valley State beat Prairie View A&M 28-27 on October 3 after falling behind 24-0. The Delta Devils scored 28 of the final 31 points, but the early deficit matters alongside the recovery. A similar start would put considerable pressure on another comeback.

Josh Brown supplied the decisive scoring production. He completed 13 passes for 144 yards and one touchdown, adding rushing touchdowns from 9, 13 and 62 yards. Those scores make his running threat central to this forecast without requiring assumptions about how those plays developed.

The Delta Devils finished with 306 yards, split between 162 rushing and 144 passing, and converted 6 of 13 third downs. Defensively, they limited Prairie View A&M to 258 yards. Christ Kore recorded nine tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss, while Joey Davis intercepted a pass. Those contributions give Mississippi Valley State more than its final score to build on.

Texas Southern Tigers outlook

Texas Southern lost 66-10 at Florida Atlantic on October 3. The Tigers gained 312 yards and allowed 453, with two turnovers against none for Florida Atlantic. That combination is a substantial caution against expecting comfortable separation this week.

Athean Renfro was a positive, carrying 20 times for 101 net yards and one touchdown. Texas Southern collectively produced 154 net rushing yards on 44 attempts. Renfro’s individual outing is more encouraging than treating rushing volume alone as proof of an effective offense.

Cam'Ron McCoy completed 17 of 27 passes for 158 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. The Tigers possessed the ball for 42:22, yet scored only 10 points. Their next step is converting possessions into points; controlling the clock by itself was plainly insufficient against Florida Atlantic.

Key matchup factors

Brown’s rushing threat and Renfro’s production offer different routes to offense. Mississippi Valley State can look to its quarterback for scoring plays, while a productive Renfro could give Texas Southern a foundation for sustained drives. Those are plausible paths, not proof that either team will dictate this matchup.

The recent results also came against different opponents. Mississippi Valley State’s win and Texas Southern’s loss deserve weight, but a direct comparison of their margins would overstate what one game per team can tell us. The favorite’s price is the strongest signal for the outright pick; the recent performances are the strongest reason to keep confidence low.

Mississippi Valley State vs Texas Southern Tigers spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Mississippi Valley State +14.5 (-113) and Texas Southern -14.5 (-113).

The projected six-point margin favors Mississippi Valley State relative to the spread, but that forecast is too fragile to justify a bet. The Delta Devils’ early 24-point deficit illustrates the risk of relying on their comeback, while the Tigers’ latest defeat offers little reassurance about laying more than two touchdowns. A projected cover and a worthwhile wager are separate judgments.

Mississippi Valley State vs Texas Southern Tigers total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 57.5 (-125) and Under 57.5 (-125).

The projected 54 points suggest an Under direction, but the margin below 57.5 is modest. Mississippi Valley State’s previous game produced 55 points; Texas Southern’s produced 76. Those contrasting outcomes, against different opponents, leave considerable scoring uncertainty. Texas Southern’s lengthy possession time also cautions against assuming that clock control translates neatly into a predictable total.

Mississippi Valley State vs Texas Southern Tigers projected score

Game forecast: Texas Southern 30, Mississippi Valley State 24. Confidence: low.

Renfro’s recent production supplies a plausible winning route for the market favorite. The strongest counterargument is Brown’s scoring versatility, backed by Mississippi Valley State’s defensive contributions against Prairie View A&M. Expect a closer result than the spread implies, while recognizing the uncertainty around that margin. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

MVSU24

txso30

Projected winner Texas Southern TigersConfidenceStrong Lean — Mississippi Valley State
Pick on the Spread

Strong Lean — Mississippi Valley State +14.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Mississippi Valley State +14.5 (-113) and Texas Southern -14.5 (-113)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 57.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 57.5 (-125) and Under 57.5 (-125)

Sources

  • Southwestern Athletic ConferenceSWAC Football Game Day Week Six Information
  • Mississippi Valley State University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Delta Devils Complete 24-Point Comeback, Edge Prairie View A&M 28-27
  • Texas Southern University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Big 1st Quarter Propels FAU To Win Over TSU

SportsJaw Mississippi Valley State vs Tigers game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. how our predictions work.

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