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NCAAF PicksSat 5:00 PM ET
Montana Grizzlies logo
Montana
Grizzlies
5-1
versus
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks logo
Northern Arizona
Lumberjacks
4-2
NCAAF · MONTAN at N.ARIZ

Your Picks on Montana vs Northern Arizona

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Montana Grizzlies vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Predictions Today

Game time: October 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET

Venue: J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome — Flagstaff, AZ

Article updated Oct 9, 11:42 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Montana will beat Northern Arizona 38-31, with its productive passing attack and Eli Gillman’s rushing threat supplying the strongest matchup advantage. Northern Arizona’s balanced offense and strong home results make Lumberjacks +9.5 (-115) the best bet at the supplied price. Over 64.5 (-125) is a secondary recommendation, with Montana’s recent defensive performance tempering enthusiasm for the total.

Montana Grizzlies vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks prediction and best bet

Montana is the pick to win this Big Sky matchup, while Northern Arizona +9.5 (-115) is the strongest wager. The Grizzlies bring the more compelling offensive case, with sustained receiving production from Brooks Davis and a productive rushing option in Eli Gillman. That combination earns Montana the nod in a projected 38-31 victory.

Northern Arizona has enough offensive balance to make a double-digit margin a demanding assignment. Its recent home results strengthen the underdog case, although winning games at home is different from covering this particular spread. The recommendation rests on the combination of that setting and an offense capable of answering Montana.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Time: Saturday, October 10, 2026, at 2 p.m. MST, according to Northern Arizona Athletics. Montana’s preview lists 3 p.m. Montana time.

Venue: Findlay Toyota Field at the Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff, Arizona.

Broadcast: ESPN+ and Scripps Sports.

Records: Montana enters 5-1 overall and 3-0 in Big Sky play. Northern Arizona is 4-2 overall and 2-1 in conference play. Montana is the only team remaining unbeaten in Big Sky play.

SportsJaw spread: Montana -9.5 (-115); Northern Arizona +9.5 (-115).

SportsJaw total: Over 64.5 (-125); Under 64.5 (-127). Moneyline: Montana -267; Northern Arizona +267.

Montana Grizzlies outlook

Montana followed its September 26 win over UC Davis, 62-22, with a 36-14 victory over Northern Colorado on October 3. The Grizzlies gained 607 yards in the first game and 553 in the second. Against Northern Colorado, 10 plays gained at least 20 yards, illustrating how quickly this offense can change field position.

Keali'i Ah Yat completed 23 of 30 passes for 346 yards and five touchdowns without an interception against Northern Colorado. Davis supplied 205 receiving yards and three touchdown catches. He enters this matchup with an FCS-leading 772 receiving yards and five consecutive games of at least 100 yards, according to Montana Athletics.

Gillman adds 783 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns entering October 10. His October 3 contribution included 99 rushing yards, 31 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. Those figures give Montana a credible alternative when the passing game draws defensive attention.

The defense also contributed against Northern Colorado, allowing 299 total yards and holding the Bears scoreless for nearly three quarters. That performance supports the winner pick, though a repeat against Northern Arizona’s balanced attack is a separate challenge.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks outlook

Northern Arizona produced a season-high 506 offensive yards in its October 3 win at Idaho State. Its October 6 preview reports a three-game average of 458.7 yards, including 274.3 passing and 184.3 rushing, with 7.3 yards per play. The useful takeaway is the distribution: Montana must account for meaningful production through both routes.

Kenveon Stone rushed for 103 yards and two touchdowns on October 3. He has six rushing touchdowns across the last four games and averages 7.2 yards per carry. His recent scoring gives the Lumberjacks a ground-game threat to complement their passing production.

Jeter Purdy leads Northern Arizona with 345 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns through October 6, averaging 18.2 yards per catch. The home results are another positive: NAU is 11-2 at the Walkup Skydome since 2024 and has won three of its last four home meetings with Montana.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Northern Arizona can make Montana sustain drives. Davis’ production makes defending the pass an obvious priority, but extra attention toward him could leave room for Gillman. That is the tactical advantage behind the Montana forecast, rather than an assumption that every recent explosive play will carry over.

Northern Arizona’s route to a close game runs through its offensive balance. Productive rushing possessions could reduce the burden on its passing attack and help it answer Montana without chasing a shootout on every series. The home record adds context, but the current offense carries more weight than earlier meetings between these programs.

Montana Grizzlies vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks spread prediction

Take Northern Arizona +9.5 (-115). The projected seven-point defeat leaves the Lumberjacks inside the supplied spread, and their recent offensive efficiency offers a practical route to that result. The home setting reinforces a modest preference for taking the points.

Montana -9.5 (-115) remains a real threat to this pick. Its last two victories came by 40 and 22 points, so another decisive result would fit its recent form. Northern Arizona’s offensive production makes a closer contest the preferred forecast, but this is an ordinary edge rather than a high-confidence cover.

Montana Grizzlies vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks total prediction

The total recommendation is Over 64.5 (-125), secondary to the spread pick. Montana’s recent yardage and Northern Arizona’s efficient three-game offensive sample point toward enough scoring opportunities for both teams. The projected 69 points put the forecast above the supplied total.

The strongest concern is Montana’s defense. Another performance like its showing against Northern Colorado could leave Northern Arizona short of its projected contribution. Yardage alone also does not guarantee touchdowns. Those risks keep the Over behind Northern Arizona +9.5 as the official wager; Under 64.5 (-127) is not the selection.

Montana Grizzlies vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks projected score

Game forecast: Montana 38, Northern Arizona 31. Montana’s receiving production, quarterback performance and rushing threat earn it the winner pick with medium confidence. Northern Arizona’s balanced offense and strong Skydome results are the clearest counterargument and the reason to expect a competitive finish.

The official SportsJaw wager is spread: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +9.5 (-115). Over 64.5 (-125) is the secondary total recommendation. Montana is the projected winner, with Northern Arizona selected to cover.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

MONTAN38

N.ARIZ31

Projected winner Montana GrizzliesConfidenceSlight Lean — Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +9.5

Editorial pick at publication: Spread: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +9.5 (-115)

Pick on the Total

Moderate Lean — Over 64.5

Editorial pick at publication: Total: Over 64.5 (-125)

Sources

  • Northern Arizona University AthleticsNo. 13/14 Northern Arizona Football Returns to Skydome to Face No. 2/3 Montana
  • University of Montana AthleticsGriz back on road to face No. 13 Lumberjacks
  • University of Montana AthleticsPrevious-game context: Explosive offense carries Griz to Homecoming win over Bears

SportsJaw Grizzlies vs Lumberjacks game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Grizzlies vs Lumberjacks matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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