Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Predictions Today: Shane Baz vs Elmer Rodriguez
The Baltimore Orioles are projected to beat the New York Yankees 4-3, with Shane Baz's 4.11 ERA and full-season workload supplying the strongest reason for the upset forecast. New York's superior bullpen numbers make this a narrow call. Neither Baltimore +1.5 (-190) nor the total of 7.5 (-110 each way) offers a convincing betting edge. The official wager is Pass.
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees prediction and best bet
Baltimore gets the pick because Baz offers the more encouraging starting-pitching profile: a 4.11 ERA across 179 2/3 innings, compared with Elmer Rodriguez's 5.40 ERA. That comparison favors the Orioles, although Rodriguez's missing innings total limits how confidently those ERAs can be weighed. The forecast is Baltimore Orioles 4, New York Yankees 3.
The best betting decision is Pass. New York brings substantial counterevidence through its better record and lower bullpen ERA. Baltimore's +1.5 protection costs -190, while backing New York -1.5 (+165) requires a different winner and margin from this projection. The total also presents competing signals. A slight preference for Baltimore winning is stronger than the case for risking money on either market.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Game: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, 2026 MLB season.
Time: Sunday, September 27, 2026, at 1:05 p.m. EDT.
Venue: Yankee Stadium.
Television: YES and MASN.
Records: Baltimore 79-82; New York 93-68.
Probable starters: Right-handers Shane Baz for Baltimore and Elmer Rodriguez for New York, as listed by MLB.com and Covers for this matchup. Baseball Savant also identifies both pitchers for this game at Yankee Stadium on September 27, 2026, at 1:05 p.m. ET, independently confirming the matchup and schedule details reported above.