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  1. Home
  2. MLB Picks
  3. Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays
Sun 3:07 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds logo
Cincinnati
Reds1
B. Williamson LHP
versus
Toronto Blue Jays logo
Toronto
Blue Jays5
M. Scherzer RHP
Final
Team123456789T
Cincinnati Reds0010000001
Toronto Blue Jays02200001

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Picks & Predictions

Game time: September 27, 2026 at 3:07 PM ET

Venue: Rogers Centre — Toronto, Ontario

Article updated Sep 27, 8:14 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Cincinnati Reds 5-4 in our forecast for September 27, with Toronto’s stronger bullpen providing the clearest matchup advantage. Max Scherzer’s recent improvement adds support, but his season-long vulnerability keeps confidence low. Toronto’s -160 moneyline offers no compelling value here, and neither the supplied run line nor total earns an actionable recommendation. The official wager is Pass.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction and best bet

Toronto gets the nod because its relief pitching offers the strongest sustained advantage in a matchup between vulnerable starters. Blue Jays relievers have a 3.58 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, compared with Cincinnati’s 4.70 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Scherzer’s 4.55 ERA across his last five starts also represents improvement from his 6.14 season mark.

The forecast is Blue Jays 5, Reds 4, with Pass as the best betting decision. Brandon Williamson’s six scoreless innings in his latest start give Cincinnati a credible counterargument. Toronto’s bullpen advantage tips the winner selection, but paying -175 requires a firmer edge than this pitching matchup offers. A likely winner and a worthwhile price are separate judgments.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, 2026 MLB season.

First pitch: Sunday, September 27, 2026, at 3:07 p.m. EDT.

Venue: Rogers Centre.

Television: Sportsnet, Reds.TV and TVA Sports.

Recent form: Cincinnati is 5-5 over its last 10 games; Toronto is 3-7.

Probable starters: Cincinnati left-hander Brandon Williamson and Toronto right-hander Max Scherzer, as listed by MLB.com and Baseball Savant. Neither is a confirmed starter designation here beyond that probable listing.

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5
MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays

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21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Cincinnati Reds outlook

Williamson’s September 22 outing at Atlanta is Cincinnati’s strongest recent pitching result in this matchup. He allowed three hits across six scoreless innings, with no walks or home runs and two strikeouts. The clean walk column matters given his broader control problems, although two strikeouts leave little reason to expect him to overpower Toronto.

His season figures need careful attribution. Covers reports 43 2/3 innings, 40 hits, 30 runs, 27 earned runs, eight home runs, 26 walks and 31 strikeouts, with a 5.56 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. MLB.com instead lists a 4.89 ERA and 33 strikeouts. Those totals conflict, so neither version supplies a settled season baseline. Covers lists his last-five-start ERA at 4.88.

Cincinnati’s bullpen has also carried a substantial recent workload: 14 1/3 innings over three games, allowing 13 hits, nine runs, eight earned runs, three home runs and six walks while striking out 13. Those results make another lengthy Williamson outing particularly valuable.

The offensive counterweight is less encouraging. Cincinnati’s current roster has a .129 average and .265 wOBA in 34 Statcast-era career plate appearances against Scherzer. That limited history favors Toronto, but it is far too narrow to describe Cincinnati’s overall offense against right-handed pitching.

Toronto Blue Jays outlook

Scherzer’s 2026 season line explains why Toronto is a cautious selection. Covers lists 77 2/3 innings, 72 hits, 53 runs, all earned, 15 home runs, 34 walks and 61 strikeouts. His 6.14 ERA agrees with MLB.com’s listing, while Covers gives him a 1.36 WHIP. The home runs are a clear threat to any comfortable Toronto lead.

His September 23 start against Baltimore showed both the appeal and the risk. Scherzer struck out seven in five innings, but allowed four hits, four earned runs, one home run and three walks. His last-five-start ERA of 4.55 is better than his season figure, though it still leaves room for Cincinnati to score.

Toronto’s stronger relief numbers offer a way to survive an uneven start. That advantage concerns overall performance; it is not a guarantee that particular relievers will be rested or available Sunday.

Against Williamson, the current Blue Jays roster has a .333 average, .419 wOBA and 97.0 mph average exit velocity in just nine Statcast-era career plate appearances. That is a hint of productive contact, not a team-wide split against left-handers. Toronto’s listed injuries include Dylan Cease with right shoulder inflammation, Rudy Martin Jr. with a left hamstring strain and Jameson Taillon with an elbow injury.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Cincinnati can gain enough ground against Scherzer before relief pitching becomes decisive. Williamson’s latest outing offers an upset path, while Toronto’s 3-7 recent record argues against treating the favorite as dependable.

At 11:56 UTC on September 27, the SportsJaw combined moneyline consensus favored Toronto at 77%, equivalent to 462 of 600 modeled combined selections. That share rose two percentage points from September 26. These counts combine a modeled sportsbook sample with SportsJaw participation; they are not observed DraftKings tickets or a win probability. Cincinnati leads the spread consensus at 67%, a useful distinction between support for Toronto to win and support for a comfortable margin.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays spread prediction

Pass on Cincinnati +1.5 (-135) and Toronto -1.5 (+115). The projected one-run Toronto victory favors Cincinnati against the run line, but that single score estimate is too fragile to justify paying -135. Williamson’s conflicting season figures and Cincinnati’s recent bullpen workload leave meaningful room for a wider defeat.

Toronto -1.5 (+115) offers a positive return, yet Scherzer’s home-run exposure makes separation difficult to trust. The Reds’ 67% combined spread consensus describes the preference for Cincinnati with the extra runs; it adds no independent evidence about the final margin.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays total prediction

Pass on Over 8.5 (-117) and Under 8.5 (-105). The projected nine runs fall above the total, with Scherzer’s 15 home runs allowed and Cincinnati’s weaker relief results supporting a scoring case. That is a modest projection edge, not enough by itself to recommend the Over.

Williamson’s six scoreless innings on September 22 and Toronto’s bullpen provide the strongest Under arguments. The combined total consensus favors Under 8.5 (-105) at 62%, but that preference does not measure scoring probability. Neither direction earns a bet at the supplied price.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Toronto Blue Jays 5, Cincinnati Reds 4. Toronto’s bullpen breaks the tie in a close matchup, with Scherzer’s improved five-start ERA providing secondary support. Confidence is low because his season-long run prevention remains poor and Cincinnati can point to Williamson’s excellent latest outing.

The strongest challenge to this forecast is another efficient Williamson start that limits Cincinnati’s exposure to its bullpen. Toronto’s recent losing form adds caution. At the supplied moneyline prices of Toronto -175 and Cincinnati +150, neither side offers a demonstrated edge worth backing. Both run lines and the 8.5 total are also passes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Reds4

Blue Jays5

Projected winner Toronto Blue JaysConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-135) and Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+115)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 8.5 (-117) and Under 8.5 (-105)

Sources

  • MLB.comBaseball Probable Pitchers
  • Baseball Savant / MLBBaseball Savant Probable Pitchers
  • CoversReds vs Blue Jays Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - MLB Game on September 27, 2026
#CincinnatiReds#TorontoBlueJays

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Reds vs Blue Jays game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Reds vs Blue Jays matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Cincinnati Reds+150 → +145Moved
  • Moneyline · Toronto Blue Jays-178 → -160Moved
  • Spread · Cincinnati Reds+1.5 (-150) → +1.5 (-140)Moved
  • Spread · Toronto Blue Jays-1.5 (+125) → -1.5 (+120)Moved
  • Total · Over8.5 (-115) → 8.5 (-120)Moved
  • Total · Under8.5 (-105) → 8.5 (+100)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Cincinnati Reds
75-87 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 4-5-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Toronto Blue Jays
79-83 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-09-27T04:21:48.106Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Against Williamson, the current Blue Jays roster has a .333 average, .419 wOBA and 97.0 mph average exit velocity in just nine Statcast-era career plate appearances. That is a hint of productive contact, not a team-wide split against left-handers. Toronto’s listed injuries include Dylan Cease with right shoulder inflammation, Rudy Martin Jr. with a left hamstring strain and Jameson Taillon with an elbow injury.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-09-26Cincinnati Reds 5 · Toronto Blue Jays 1
  • 2026-09-25Cincinnati Reds 5 · Toronto Blue Jays 6
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Toronto Blue Jays defeated Cincinnati Reds 5-1

Toronto Blue Jays defeated Cincinnati Reds 5-1 on September 27, 2026, a 4-run decision in the series. Toronto Blue Jays' strongest period was the 2nd inning, when it outscored its opponent 2-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-140) spread, Toronto Blue Jays covered, while the 6 combined runs finished under the recorded total of 8.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerToronto Blue JaysWin
  • SpreadPass on Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-135) and Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+115)Pass
  • TotalPass on Over 8.5 (-117) and Under 8.5 (-105)Pass

Tipster picks

No graded public tipster picks were recorded for this matchup.