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MLB PicksSun 3:07 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds logo
Cincinnati
Reds
B. Williamson LHP
versus
Toronto Blue Jays logo
Toronto
Blue Jays
M. Scherzer RHP
MLB · CIN at TOR

Your Picks on Reds vs Blue Jays

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
Runline
Moneyline
Total

Cincinnati vs Toronto consensus picks

CIN33%
67%TOR

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Predictions Today: Brandon Williamson vs Max Scherzer

Game time: September 27, 2026 at 3:07 PM ET

Venue: Rogers Centre — Toronto, Ontario

Article updated Sep 27, 12:21 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Cincinnati Reds will beat the Toronto Blue Jays, 5-4, in a low-confidence forecast for September 27. Brandon Williamson’s lower season ERA and latest outing with no earned runs give Cincinnati the starting-pitcher edge, though Max Scherzer has the better WHIP. Cincinnati’s +150 moneyline is tempting, but the incomplete offensive and bullpen picture leaves the official wager as Pass.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction and best bet

Cincinnati gets the narrow call because Williamson has the stronger earned-run record in both the season and seven-game comparisons. His September 22 start also offers an encouraging command signal: no walks across six innings. Against a Toronto starter carrying a 6.14 ERA, that is enough to favor the Reds in a close game forecast.

It is a thinner case for risking money. Williamson has struggled with walks himself, and Scherzer’s lower WHIP complicates any claim of a decisive pitching advantage. Toronto also owns the better record. Best bet: Pass. Neither Cincinnati moneyline +150 nor either run-line or total option offers a sufficiently convincing edge from the pitching evidence alone.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Cincinnati at Toronto, MLB, Sunday, September 27, 2026, at 3:07 p.m. EDT.

Venue: Rogers Centre. Broadcasts: Sportsnet, Reds.TV and TVA Sports.

Records: Reds 75-86; Blue Jays 78-83. Probable starters: Cincinnati left-hander Brandon Williamson and Toronto right-hander Max Scherzer.

SportsJaw moneylines: Cincinnati +150; Toronto -178.

SportsJaw run lines: Cincinnati +1.5 (-145); Toronto -1.5 (+120).

SportsJaw total: Over 8.5 (-117); Under 8.5 (-105). Toronto is the moneyline favorite, while Cincinnati’s run-line protection comes at a higher cost than its outright-win option.

Cincinnati Reds outlook

Williamson enters at 5-4 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 49⅔ innings. He has allowed 43 hits and 27 earned runs, with 27 walks and 33 strikeouts. The lower ERA gives Cincinnati its clearest advantage in this matchup, but the walk total is a substantial qualification. His season has offered only a modest separation between strikeouts and free passes.

The last seven games have been less effective than his full season: a 5.28 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 29 innings. That stretch includes 28 hits, 17 earned runs, 14 walks and 21 strikeouts. Cincinnati therefore needs more than a routine version of that recent performance to make the pitching advantage decisive.

His September 22 outing at Atlanta supplies the optimistic case. Williamson allowed three hits and no earned runs over six innings, walked nobody and struck out two. That was effective work without a large strikeout total. He returned from the 60-day injured list on September 1 after left-shoulder fatigue, but the six-inning appearance shows he recently handled that length. The Cincinnati forecast rests on his command carrying forward; there is no verified Reds offensive split against right-handers here to strengthen it.

Toronto Blue Jays outlook

Toronto’s 78-83 record is three wins better than Cincinnati’s, but Scherzer’s season makes this a difficult favorite to back at -178. He is 3-9 with a 6.14 ERA across 77⅔ innings, allowing 72 hits and 53 earned runs. His 34 walks, 61 strikeouts and 1.36 WHIP describe a more competitive comparison with Williamson than ERA alone suggests.

Scherzer’s last seven games produced a 5.65 ERA over 36⅔ innings, with 29 hits, 23 earned runs, 17 walks and 30 strikeouts. His 1.25 WHIP in that window is better than Williamson’s 1.45. Toronto’s strongest pitching counterargument is that Scherzer has allowed fewer baserunners per inning recently, even while his earned-run results remain worse.

The individual starts show considerable variation. At Baltimore on September 23, he allowed four hits and four earned runs in five innings, walking three and striking out seven. Against Detroit on September 16, he surrendered three hits and one earned run over five innings, with three walks and three strikeouts. Against Baltimore on September 11, he allowed seven hits and six earned runs in five innings, walking one and striking out three. The Detroit performance illustrates Toronto’s route to a better result, but there is no verified Blue Jays offensive split against left-handers to complete that case.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Williamson’s latest command carries more predictive weight than Scherzer’s better recent baserunner control. Cincinnati gets the forecast because the earned-run comparison favors Williamson across both windows. Toronto remains a credible alternative because that advantage is not shared by every pitching measure.

At 04:11 UTC on September 27, Toronto led the blended moneyline consensus at 70%. The accompanying modeled equivalent sample favored Toronto 420-180 across 600 selections; those are not observed sportsbook ticket totals. The recorded day-over-day change was five percentage points toward Cincinnati. Neither figure supplies a win probability or a reason by itself to oppose Toronto. Verified lineup production and bullpen availability would matter more to the betting decision.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays spread prediction

Pass on Cincinnati +1.5 (-145) and Toronto -1.5 (+120). The projected Cincinnati win points toward the Reds with the extra run and a half, but that protection carries a substantial price. A single projected margin says little about how often the wager would cash.

Toronto’s run line requires a win by at least two runs. Scherzer’s uneven earned-run results make that difficult to endorse, although his better recent WHIP keeps a stronger outing plausible. Without a fuller scoring and relief-pitching comparison, neither side earns an actionable recommendation.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays total prediction

Pass on total 8.5 at Over -117 and Under -105. Both starters’ seven-game ERAs exceed 5.00, and their walks create a plausible route to a higher-scoring game. The forecast of nine combined runs therefore tilts toward the Over.

The margin is too small to carry a wager. Williamson’s latest start yielded no earned runs, while Scherzer recently limited Detroit to one earned run in five innings. Either performance offers a lower-scoring alternative. Missing offensive splits and bullpen workload details leave too much uncertainty about scoring after the starters depart.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays projected score

Game forecast: Cincinnati Reds 5, Toronto Blue Jays 4. Williamson’s lower season and recent ERAs earn Cincinnati the selection, with his September 22 command providing the strongest individual supporting performance. This is a low-confidence projection of a narrow Reds win.

The strongest counterargument is Scherzer’s better WHIP, particularly over the last seven games, alongside Toronto’s better record. Those facts keep the starter comparison from becoming a broad endorsement of Cincinnati. The projected nine runs also leave the total close to its supplied line. Official SportsJaw wager: Pass. Cincinnati +1.5 (-145), Toronto -1.5 (+120), Over 8.5 (-117) and Under 8.5 (-105) all remain passes.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

CIN5

TOR4

Projected winner Cincinnati RedsConfidenceSlight Lean — Cincinnati Reds
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Cincinnati Reds +1.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-145) and Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 8.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on total 8.5: Over 8.5 (-117) and Under 8.5 (-105)

Sources

  • MLB.comBaseball Probable Pitchers
  • MLB.com / Cincinnati RedsBrandon Williamson Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News
  • MLB.com / Toronto Blue JaysMax Scherzer Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News

SportsJaw Reds vs Blue Jays game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Reds vs Blue Jays matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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