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NCAAF PicksSat 7:00 PM ET
Colgate Red Raiders logo
Colgate
Red Raiders
4-1
versus
Harvard Crimson logo
Harvard
Crimson
2-0
NCAAF · COLGATE at harv

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Colgate Red Raiders vs Harvard Crimson Predictions October 3, 2026

Game time: October 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Harvard Stadium — Cambridge, MA

Article updated Oct 2, 1:18 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Harvard will edge Colgate, 20-17, with Charlie Smith’s passing accuracy giving the Crimson a narrow advantage against a disruptive Raiders defense. Colgate’s five-game defensive performance makes Colgate +3.5 (-106) the strongest wager at the supplied price. Harvard is the winner forecast, but its scoreless second half against Brown limits enthusiasm for laying points. The total of 36.5 is a Pass.

Colgate Red Raiders vs Harvard Crimson prediction and best bet

The forecast is Harvard 20, Colgate 17, with Colgate +3.5 (-106) the best bet. Smith’s 73 percent completion rate through two games gives Harvard a credible way to sustain possessions, but the Raiders bring enough defensive resistance to make a comfortable Crimson victory difficult to predict.

Colgate has allowed 13.0 points and 258.6 yards per game through five games, ranking fifth nationally in both categories. That broader defensive sample carries more weight than Harvard’s unbeaten record alone. Harvard can win without covering, and the extra half-point beyond a field goal matters in this forecast. Confidence remains low because Colgate’s pressure and both teams’ takeaway production could quickly change the margin.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Colgate at Harvard, Saturday, October 3, 2026, in college football.

Venue: Harvard Stadium, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Broadcast: ESPN+.

Records: Colgate is 4-1 overall and 3-0 in Patriot League play after consecutive wins. Harvard is 2-0 overall and 1-0 in Ivy League play.

SportsJaw spread: Colgate +3.5 (-106); Harvard -3.5 (-147).

SportsJaw total: Over 36.5 (-125); Under 36.5 (-125).

SportsJaw moneyline: Colgate +160; Harvard -186.

Colgate Red Raiders outlook

Colgate arrives after a 28-21 road victory at Villanova on September 26. Its only loss was 13-10 at Central Michigan. The Raiders have a five-game defensive record to support their upset case, including an FCS-leading nine interceptions and a national-best 0.429 red-zone-defense rate.

The latest defensive performance adds substance to those rankings. Colgate recorded a season-high seven sacks at Villanova and led 28-14 after three quarters. Across three Patriot League games, it has surrendered seven fourth-quarter points, including none against Fordham or Holy Cross. Linebacker Christian Magliacano led the league with three interceptions and 7.0 tackles for loss through five games.

Jake Stearney completed 15 of 21 passes for 158 yards and three touchdowns at Villanova, adding 56 rushing yards on 11 carries. His rushing contribution gives Harvard another responsibility beyond covering Matt Fogler, who led the Patriot League with 92.2 receiving yards per game and five touchdown catches.

The concern is whether Colgate can consistently run through its backs. Caleb Naumann and O'Shea Faison combined for 95 yards on 33 carries at Villanova. Another modest return from those carries would put more responsibility on Stearney to sustain drives against Harvard’s opportunistic defense.

Harvard Crimson outlook

Harvard’s 14-10 victory at Brown on September 25 illustrated both its potential and its vulnerability. The Crimson held Brown to 93 first-half yards and built a 14-0 halftime lead. They then went scoreless after the break, leaving little room for error despite an excellent start.

Smith set career highs with 30 completions, 205 passing yards and two touchdowns. He completed 21 of 24 attempts for 154 yards and both touchdowns before halftime. His season completion percentage ranked fourth nationally and first among Ivy League players through two games. Accuracy is the strongest reason to forecast Harvard as the winner, although completions alone will not guarantee enough scoring against Colgate.

Freshman Nathan Bailey caught nine passes for 80 yards against Brown and contributed 21 rushing yards on three carries. That involvement makes him an important part of Harvard’s attempt to move the ball against a defense that has limited both yardage and points.

Safety Xaden Benson delivered three interceptions and a fumble recovery against Brown, accounting for all four Harvard takeaways. The Crimson had five interceptions through two games and ranked second nationally in turnover margin at plus-2.00 per game. Those plays helped secure the Brown win, but expecting another four-takeaway performance would put too much weight on one game.

Key matchup factors

The decisive question is whether Harvard can turn accurate passing into sustained scoring before Colgate’s pressure interrupts possessions. Smith’s first-half performance at Brown offers a route to success. Harvard’s second-half shutout in that same game leaves a meaningful concern against a defense with a stronger five-game statistical foundation.

Turnovers create uncertainty in both directions. An interception can end a scoring threat or hand the opponent a short field, so the takeaway numbers favor neither an automatic Under nor a predictable margin. Colgate also has a quarterback who contributed as both passer and runner at Villanova. Harvard must account for that versatility while avoiding the defensive breakdown that could erase its narrow projected advantage.

Colgate Red Raiders vs Harvard Crimson spread prediction

The spread recommendation is Colgate Red Raiders +3.5 (-106). The Raiders’ scoring defense, red-zone results and recent pressure production support taking more than a field goal. Their road win at Villanova also supplies a recent example of turning defensive disruption into a victory.

Harvard -3.5 (-147) asks for a winning margin beyond the projected three points at a substantially steeper price. Smith’s accuracy keeps Harvard ahead in the forecast, but the Crimson’s uneven scoring against Brown makes separation less convincing. Colgate’s defensive record supports the wager; the projected margin alone is not the entire case.

Colgate Red Raiders vs Harvard Crimson total prediction

The total recommendation is Pass on Over 36.5 (-125) and Under 36.5 (-125). Colgate’s 13.0 points allowed per game and Harvard’s 14-10 result at Brown make a restrained scoring forecast reasonable. Still, the projected 37 points sit just above the line, leaving little cushion for either direction.

There is counterevidence to a confident Under: Colgate’s latest game finished 28-21, and Stearney threw three touchdowns. Takeaways could also create easy scoring opportunities. Neither side of this total offers enough separation from the forecast to justify the supplied -125 price.

Colgate Red Raiders vs Harvard Crimson projected score

Game forecast: Harvard 20, Colgate 17. Smith’s accuracy and Bailey’s involvement give Harvard a plausible offensive foundation for a narrow home victory. The forecast requires the Crimson to produce more consistently than they did after halftime at Brown.

Colgate’s defense is the strongest counterargument, with five games of strong scoring prevention and a seven-sack performance in its latest outing. Stearney and Fogler give the Raiders enough offensive threat to turn that resistance into an outright win if Harvard stalls again.

Confidence is low. The single official SportsJaw wager is Colgate Red Raiders +3.5 (-106), supported by the Raiders’ defensive performance and the protection of more than a field goal. The total of 36.5 is a Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

COLGATE17

harv20

Projected winner Harvard CrimsonConfidenceSlight Lean — Colgate Red Raiders
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Colgate Red Raiders +3.5

Editorial pick at publication: Spread: Colgate Red Raiders +3.5 (-106)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 36.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 36.5 (-125) and Under 36.5 (-125)

Sources

  • Harvard University AthleticsNo. 22/20 Football Opens Harvard Stadium Against No. 20/22 Colgate
  • Colgate University AthleticsRaiders Knock Off Nova in Top 25 Tussle, 28-21
  • Harvard University AthleticsNo. 25/21 Football Bests Brown in Pawtucket, 14-10

SportsJaw Red Raiders vs Crimson game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Red Raiders vs Crimson matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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