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NCAAF PicksSat 1:00 PM ET
LO
Long Island
0-0
versus
Duquesne Dukes logo
Duquesne
Dukes
0-2
NCAAF · LIU at duq

Your Picks on LIU vs Duquesne

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Long Island vs Duquesne Dukes Predictions October 10, 2026

Game time: October 10, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

Venue: Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field — Pittsburgh, PA

Article updated Oct 7, 12:08 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Duquesne Dukes will beat Long Island 24-20 in the game forecast, with the home favorite’s market position supplying the edge in a thin comparison. Long Island’s productive rushing performance against Mercyhurst is the strongest reason to expect a close finish. Confidence is low, and neither the supplied 3.5-point spread nor the 44.5 total creates an actionable wager. The official pick is Pass.

Long Island vs Duquesne Dukes prediction and best bet

The pick is Duquesne Dukes to win, with no official wager. Duquesne’s -180 moneyline and -3.5 spread make it the market favorite, but those prices alone are not a reason to bet. Long Island’s latest performance gives the underdog a plausible route to another competitive game.

The Sharks beat Mercyhurst 27-24 on Oct. 3 to open NEC play. Their rushing success makes a narrow Duquesne victory a reasonable forecast, although there is no comparable recent Duquesne performance here to strengthen that judgment. Keep confidence low and separate the winner selection from the betting decision.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Long Island visits Duquesne Dukes on Oct. 10, 2026, in college football. Long Island’s Oct. 3 recap confirms the opponent, road assignment and date.

SportsJaw moneyline: Long Island +140; Duquesne Dukes -180.

SportsJaw spread: Long Island +3.5 (-113); Duquesne Dukes -3.5 (-113).

SportsJaw total: Over 44.5 (-114); Under 44.5 (-116).

Records: Long Island enters at 1-5 overall and 1-0 in NEC play. This is the first of consecutive road games for the Sharks.

Long Island outlook

Long Island’s offense generated 263 rushing yards out of 326 total yards against Mercyhurst. Jesiah Mcknight led the ground attack with 78 yards and a touchdown. Sam Slade contributed 74 yards and two touchdowns, while Luca Stanzani ran for 77 yards and completed 10 of 18 passes.

That distribution gives the Sharks several ways to sustain their rushing attack. Their 24 first downs and 33:49 of possession show how effectively the approach worked in that game. The caution is the sample: one successful afternoon offers a potential plan for Duquesne, rather than proof that Long Island can reproduce it.

Rafael Fasolino led the defense with nine tackles against Mercyhurst, followed by LJ Hall with seven. Felix Matos added six tackles and a forced fumble. Matos also forced two fumbles against FIU on Sept. 26, making his recent disruption a useful secondary consideration beyond the offense.

Duquesne Dukes outlook

Duquesne’s case rests primarily on its status as the home favorite. The -180 moneyline points toward the Dukes winning, while the -3.5 spread suggests a competitive matchup. Neither price tells us how well their personnel match up with Long Island’s rushing options.

The tactical priority is to prevent the Sharks from settling into extended drives. Forcing Long Island into passing situations would test a different part of its offense from the one that powered the Mercyhurst win. That is a potential route to a Duquesne victory, not an established defensive strength.

Key matchup factors

Game state could matter as much as rushing production. A close score would let Long Island continue using the approach that worked last week. A meaningful deficit could force the Sharks to change that balance. The forecast assumes they remain competitive enough to keep their ground game involved.

Long Island’s forced fumbles also deserve careful interpretation. They indicate recent defensive disruption, but a forced fumble is not automatically a recovered turnover. Building the prediction around extra possessions would put too much weight on an uncertain outcome.

The biggest limitation is the uneven team comparison. Long Island has a detailed recent performance to examine; Duquesne’s case is chiefly price-based. That keeps the forecast modest and makes either spread side difficult to endorse.

Long Island vs Duquesne Dukes spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Duquesne Dukes -3.5 (-113) and Long Island +3.5 (-113). The projected four-point Duquesne victory would cover the favorite’s line by only half a point.

That arithmetic is too close to justify laying the points with low confidence. Long Island’s rushing success offers a case for a tight finish, but it does not make +3.5 a value bet by itself. Neither side has a sufficiently persuasive edge at the supplied price.

Long Island vs Duquesne Dukes total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 44.5 (-114) and Under 44.5 (-116). The forecast adds up to 44 points, just half a point below the line.

Long Island’s sustained rushing drives suggest a possible path toward fewer scoring opportunities. Yet its Mercyhurst game produced 51 combined points, a reminder that possession control can coexist with scoring. Without a stronger view of Duquesne’s offense and defense, the slight numerical preference for Under is not worth a wager.

Long Island vs Duquesne Dukes projected score

Game forecast: Duquesne Dukes 24, Long Island 20. Duquesne gets the winner selection as the home favorite. The strongest counterargument is Long Island’s recent ability to move the chains through multiple rushing contributors, which could keep the outcome within reach.

Confidence is low because the evidence offers a clearer picture of the challenger than the favorite. The projected margin and total both sit close to their betting lines. Official SportsJaw wager: Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

LIU20

duq24

Projected winner Duquesne DukesConfidenceSlight Lean — Duquesne Dukes
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Duquesne Dukes -3.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass: Duquesne Dukes -3.5 (-113) and Long Island +3.5 (-113).

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 44.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass: Over 44.5 (-114) and Under 44.5 (-116).

Sources

  • Long Island University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Sharks Open NEC Play With 27-24 Win Against Mercyhurst
  • Long Island University AthleticsLIU Set to Host Mercyhurst for Start of NEC Play Saturday, Oct. 3

SportsJaw Long Island vs Dukes game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. how our predictions work.

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