New Mexico St. vs Liberty

Sat Nov 26 12:00PM

New Mexico St. vs Liberty Predictions

Published on

New Mexico St. is on the road playing Liberty at the Williams Stadium stadium on Saturday, 11/26/2022 @ 12:00pm EST. Liberty -23.75 was the opening favorite and current line is Liberty -24.

The New Mexico State Aggies and the Liberty Flames square off in Virginia on Saturday. After a blowout loss to Missouri, the Aggies are 4-6. After defeating Arkansas three weeks ago, the Flames have now lost two straight games. Both teams will kick off the regular season finale at 12:00pm.

The road is not tough

As with most of their road games this year, New Mexico State's football team took to the road last week. In a 45-15 road loss, the Aggies gave Missouri, out of the SEC, a 21-0 lead at halftime. Diego Pavia completed 6-of-17 passes for just 76 yards without a touchdown and threw one interception. Also, freshman Gavin Frakes had some time and completed 2-of-4 for 39 yards with a pick. The Aggies' second and final touchdown came from Frakes. With 52 yards rushing, Pavia led the Aggies. Missouri outgained New Mexico State 443-259 in total yards. On third down, they converted 8-of-16 and 1-of-2. Their defense generated only two tackles for loss and didn't generate any sacks in the game.

This season, the Aggies are just 1-4 away from home and are on a one-game losing streak. They are 122nd in scoring offense, 80th in rushing the ball, and 124th in passing. In terms of turnover differential, the Aggies rank 124th in the country. The scoring defense at New Mexico State is ranked 84th in the country. The team finished 99th against the run, but 17th against the pass. Additionally, they rank 97th in the country when it comes to yellow flags.

The Arkansas looking to close strong

With competitive games against power-five conference teams and a win over Arkansas out of the SEC, the Liberty Flames want to end their season on a high note. After falling to 8-3 in the last two weeks, however, the Flames need one more strong win to get into a bowl game. In the first game, Liberty was beaten 36-33 by the suddenly resurgent UConn Huskies. In the past week, Liberty led another power-five conference team, Virginia Tech, by five points before falling 23-22 to a late Hokie touchdown. After suffering a fractured hand in September, quarterback Charlie Brewer remained out. Under center, the Flames used both Kaidon Salter and Johathan Bennett. Bennett was 8-of-15 for 98 yards and Salter was 12-of-18 for 119 yards. Bennett ran in for a touchdown and gained 76 yards.

There will once again be mystery surrounding the most critical position on the field for Liberty this week. Brewer has been questionable for nearly a month, and Salter has been added to the mix at quarterback, so the opposition will have a lot of film to analyze. Overall, the Flames have produced offensively despite uncertainty at quarterback. This season, they rank 42nd in scoring offense. They rank 28th in rushing and 69th in passing. This season, Liberty has 72nd-place in turnover differential. The Flames are 35th in scoring defense on defense. Against the run, they rank 53rd, and against the pass, they come in 21st. This season, Liberty ranks 67th in penalties.

On both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, the Flames are significantly better than the Aggies. No matter who is at quarterback, Liberty is able to execute their style of offense. Their quarterbacks will be used frequently in the running game, and all three can run the ball effectively. As a team that ranks 99th against the run, this will not bode well for New Mexico State. Meanwhile, Liberty should be able to handle New Mexico State's offense, which doesn't excel at passing or running the ball. In addition, Liberty comes into this matchup on a two-game losing streak and aims to qualify for a quality bowl game. Liberty will take their frustrations out on the Aggies in this game.

New Mexico St. Highlights

With a power ranking of 124, New Mexico St. is ranked #116 in offense (scoring an average of 19.89 per game), #62 in defense (allowing an average of 25.56 points to be scored against them per game) and are 4-6 (5-5 ATS) this season.

Liberty Highlights

Liberty Flames has a power ranking of 40 and are #52 for offense (scoring an average of 30.30 per game), #41 for defense (giving up an average of 25.56 points per game) and 8-3 (5-6 ATS) overall. New Mexico St. went 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against Liberty.

New Mexico St. Injuries

  • WR Dominic Gicinto Is out for season, Left Team
  • QB Dino Maldonado Is out for season, Shoulder

Liberty Injuries

  • QB Charlie Brewer Is "?" Saturday vs New Mexico State, Hand
  • WR Brody Brumm Is "?" Saturday vs New Mexico State, Undisclosed
  • DE Brayden Monday Is "?" Saturday vs New Mexico State, Undisclosed
  • WR Ed Ogle Is "?" Saturday vs New Mexico State, Achilles
  • WR Jaivian Lofton Is "?" Saturday vs New Mexico State, Undisclosed
  • RB Dae Dae Hunter Is out for season, Knee
  • QB Kaidon Salter Is out indefinitely, Ankle
  • LB Kaci Seegars Is "?" Saturday vs New Mexico State, Undisclosed
  • DL Marquise Brunson Is "?" Saturday vs New Mexico State, Undisclosed

Curated Picks & Predictions

  • Based on the current lines, Oddsmakers predict the score to be NMEXST 49.5, LIBERT 1.5.
  • 51% of SportsJaw players predict Liberty Flames to cover.
  • OddsShark's prediction is Liberty will win, new mexico state will cover, and the total will go over.
  • 62% picked Liberty Flames on
  • SportsJaw's ScoreCaster prediction: Aggies 2 to Flames 57.

Staff Prediction

Our prediction: Aggies 2 to Flames 57.

Written by SportsJaw Staff
Categorized as NCAAF Predictions

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Won 80% of last 10 NCAAF predictions

***OVER 50.5*** On both sides of the ball, the Liberty Flames enter the game as the superior squad.The Flames should have little trouble driving down the field while stopping any momentum that New Mexico State tries to establish. The best wager is on the Over 50.5 here as both teams will score and I think Liberty's offense should run off 35-40 points here by themselves. I've got this as a 38-17 type game cashing the OVERs.

Over 50.5 (-110)

Total Pick





Won 70% of last 10 NCAAF predictions

NEW MEXICO STATE doesn't playwell on the road and have a sputtering offense, Liberty has lost two in a row following the upset of Arkansas! The Aggies can't pass the ball so Liberty will stuff the run and make it along day for NMS! High number to cover but the Flames get the number in the 4th quarter

LIBERT -24 (-110)

Spread Pick






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