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NCAAF PicksSat 2:00 PM ET
The Citadel Bulldogs logo
The Citadel
Bulldogs
1-3
versus
SO
South Carolina State
0-0
NCAAF · CITADL at SCST

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The Citadel Bulldogs vs South Carolina State Predictions October 3, 2026

Game time: October 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Oliver C. Dawson Stadium — Orangeburg, SC

Article updated Oct 1, 9:53 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

South Carolina State will beat The Citadel, with a projected score of South Carolina State 31, The Citadel 10. Its 282 rushing yards against Bethune-Cookman provide the strongest reason to favor the home team. That advantage supports the winner forecast, but neither South Carolina State -19.5 (-113) nor the 47.5-point total offers a compelling wager. The official recommendation is Pass.

The Citadel Bulldogs vs South Carolina State prediction and best bet

South Carolina State is the pick to win this October 3 matchup, with medium confidence. Its latest victory combined substantial rushing production with two touchdown passes from Keely Watson and only 238 yards allowed. The Citadel, meanwhile, scored eight points against Chattanooga despite running 65 offensive plays. That contrast favors South Carolina State's ability to turn possessions into points.

The best betting decision is Pass. South Carolina State must win by at least 20 to cover -19.5 (-113), a demanding threshold even for the stronger team. The projected 31-10 result clears it narrowly. The total deserves separate consideration, but one recent performance from each offense leaves too much uncertainty to endorse a scoring wager.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and competition: Saturday, October 3, 2026, in the 2026 college football season.

Venue: South Carolina State hosts The Citadel at Oliver C. Dawson Stadium's Willie Jeffries Field.

Records: South Carolina State is 5-0. The Citadel is 1-3 overall and 0-2 in the Southern Conference.

SportsJaw spread: The Citadel +19.5 (-113); South Carolina State -19.5 (-113).

SportsJaw total: Over 47.5 (-114); Under 47.5 (-116).

SportsJaw moneyline: The Citadel +870; South Carolina State -2,200.

The Citadel Bulldogs outlook

The Citadel's September 26 loss to Chattanooga offers a specific picture of its offensive challenge. The Bulldogs gained 233 yards on 65 plays in the 27-8 defeat, with 172 yards coming from 45 rushing attempts. Their ground game supplied most of the yardage, but the overall output left little room for wasted possessions.

Gavin Garcia carried 15 times for 60 yards, while Nick Billoups gained 58 yards on nine attempts. Those contributions give The Citadel a plausible starting point for its offensive plan. Sustained rushing success could help the visitors keep the score manageable, particularly if it produces first downs rather than simply consuming plays. Carry volume alone will not accomplish that.

The passing performance is the greater concern. The Citadel's quarterbacks completed 13 of 20 attempts for 61 yards and one touchdown. That modest yardage return makes it difficult to project a substantial scoring rebound without assuming improvement.

For this forecast, The Citadel needs to extend drives and supplement its rushing production with more passing yardage. If South Carolina State builds a lead, the visitors would face pressure to generate points faster than they managed against Chattanooga. That is the principal reason to project another relatively modest scoring total.

South Carolina State outlook

South Carolina State improved to 5-0 with a 31-21 road victory over Bethune-Cookman on September 26. In the September 28 rankings, it stood No. 12 in the AFCA FCS Coaches Poll and No. 15 in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25. Those rankings add context, although the recent offensive production matters more to this forecast.

Mason Pickett-Hicks led the rushing effort with 136 yards on 14 carries, including a 41-yard run. Tyler Smith contributed 91 yards, and Josh Shaw added 54 yards and two touchdowns. South Carolina State finished with 282 rushing yards, showing that its production in that game extended beyond one runner.

Watson completed 14 of 19 passes for 146 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. His performance supplies another reason to favor South Carolina State: the offense found passing touchdowns alongside its substantial rushing output. Repeating that combination would put pressure on The Citadel to sustain more productive possessions.

There is a meaningful caution for bettors. South Carolina State allowed 238 yards, won first downs 21-14 and held possession for 33:17, yet its winning margin was 10 points. Those advantages helped secure the victory without producing the kind of margin required by this week's spread.

Key matchup factors

The most useful distinction is offensive flexibility. South Carolina State's latest win featured productive rushing from multiple contributors and two touchdown passes. The Citadel's latest game yielded just 61 passing yards. If this matchup requires either offense to answer a quick scoring drive, South Carolina State looks better positioned to respond.

Possession could complicate the margin. The Citadel's 45 rushing attempts suggest a possible route to a slower game, but only sustained drives would meaningfully keep the opposing offense off the field. South Carolina State's own possession advantage at Bethune-Cookman reinforces that uncertainty. These results came against different opponents, so the yardage figures are useful indicators, not a direct measure of the gap between these teams.

The Citadel Bulldogs vs South Carolina State spread prediction

Pass on South Carolina State -19.5 (-113), and pass on The Citadel +19.5 (-113). The favorite has the stronger winner case, but the projected 21-point margin sits only 1.5 points beyond the spread. A single scoring possession could change the betting outcome.

The Citadel's limited passing output makes the underdog difficult to endorse, too. Its rushing volume offers a possible path to a closer result, rather than a dependable reason to take the points. South Carolina State's recent 10-point victory also tempers enthusiasm for laying nearly three touchdowns.

The Citadel Bulldogs vs South Carolina State total prediction

Pass on the 47.5-point total, priced Over -114 and Under -116. The projected 41 points lean toward a lower-scoring game, chiefly because The Citadel managed only eight points against Chattanooga. Its heavy rushing workload could also consume time if drives continue.

The counterweight is South Carolina State's scoring potential. It produced 31 points at Bethune-Cookman through rushing and passing touchdowns, while The Citadel conceded 27 to Chattanooga. The forecast favors the Under direction, but neither these isolated results nor the projected score justify paying -116 for Under 47.5.

The Citadel Bulldogs vs South Carolina State projected score

Game forecast: South Carolina State 31, The Citadel 10. South Carolina State's recent rushing production and Watson's passing efficiency make it the stronger winner selection. The Citadel's limited passing yardage is the clearest obstacle to projecting enough offense for an upset.

The strongest counterargument concerns the size of the victory. South Carolina State's latest statistical advantages produced a 10-point win, and successful Citadel rushing possessions could reduce its opportunities to pull away. Confidence is medium for the winner forecast, with greater uncertainty around the exact score. Both the spread and total remain Pass recommendations. The single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

CITADL10

SCST31

Projected winner South Carolina StateConfidenceSlight Lean — South Carolina State
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — South Carolina State -19.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass: South Carolina State -19.5 (-113) and The Citadel +19.5 (-113)

Pick on the Total

Moderate Lean — Under 47.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass: Over 47.5 (-114) and Under 47.5 (-116)

Sources

  • The Citadel AthleticsPrevious-game context: The Citadel Drops SoCon Home Opener Against Chattanooga, 27-8
  • South Carolina State University AthleticsPrevious-game context: No. 14 SC State remains unbeaten with 31-21 road win
  • South Carolina State University AthleticsSC State Climbs In National Polls After 5-0 Start

SportsJaw Bulldogs vs South Carolina State game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. how our predictions work.

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