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NCAAF PicksSat 1:30 PM ET
Pennsylvania Quakers logo
Pennsylvania
Quakers
0-1
versus
Dartmouth Big Green logo
Dartmouth
Big Green
0-2
NCAAF · PENN at dart

Your Picks on Pennsylvania vs Dartmouth

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Pennsylvania Quakers vs Dartmouth Big Green Predictions October 3, 2026

Game time: October 3, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET

Venue: Memorial Field (Dartmouth) — Hanover, NH

Article updated Oct 1, 12:14 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Dartmouth will beat Pennsylvania 24-17, with the Big Green’s running game providing the strongest matchup advantage against a Penn defense that allowed 168 rushing yards last week. That edge supports a low-confidence game forecast, but neither Dartmouth -7.5 (-141) nor the total of 39.5 offers a compelling wager. The official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

Pennsylvania Quakers vs Dartmouth Big Green prediction and best bet

Dartmouth gets the pick in this 2026 college football Ivy League opener because its latest offensive performance offers a clearer route to sustained scoring. The Big Green rushed for 235 yards against Monmouth, with running back Myles Craddock and quarterback Grayson Saunier both contributing. Penn enters after a 20-7 loss to Lehigh in which its freshman quarterback threw two interceptions.

The best betting decision is Pass. Dartmouth’s offense gives it the advantage, but its 31 points allowed against Monmouth complicate both the cover and the total. A Dartmouth 24, Pennsylvania 17 forecast leaves too little separation from either supplied line to justify the prices.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and time: Saturday, October 3, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. Eastern, supported by both schools’ game recaps and Dartmouth’s weekly schedule.

Venue: Buddy Teevens Stadium at Memorial Field, Hanover, New Hampshire. Broadcast: ESPN+.

Records: Pennsylvania is 1-1; Dartmouth is 0-2. Both are 0-0 in Ivy League play. This is Dartmouth’s Homecoming weekend.

SportsJaw odds: Pennsylvania moneyline +240; Dartmouth moneyline -330. Spreads: Pennsylvania +7.5 (-125), Dartmouth -7.5 (-141). Total: Over 39.5 (-127), Under 39.5 (-127).

Pennsylvania Quakers outlook

Penn’s passing offense needs a rebound after September 26. Miles Teodecki completed 18 of 37 attempts for 133 yards with two interceptions against Lehigh. Mason Page supplied eight catches for 44 yards, giving the freshman quarterback a frequent target without much yardage from those completions. Penn converted four of 17 third downs, a result that makes improved production before third down a priority.

Tommy Lafayette contributed 41 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Donte West offers another relevant reference point: he led Penn’s returning backs with 417 rushing yards and five touchdowns in 2025, and the matchup preview credits him with 44 yards on 17 carries to open 2026. Those figures offer little reason to assume Penn can match Dartmouth’s latest rushing output.

The defense gives Penn a route into this game. Joey Holliday recorded two sacks and three tackles for loss against Lehigh, which finished four of 15 on third down. However, Penn also surrendered 168 rushing yards. Disruptive plays will matter most if they interrupt Dartmouth’s ground attack before Craddock and Saunier can put together scoring drives.

Dartmouth Big Green outlook

Dartmouth’s winless start includes a 24-20 loss at No. 7 Lehigh and a 31-28 defeat against Monmouth. The second game turned on a 25-yard field goal with 1:09 remaining. Dartmouth then reached the Monmouth 42, but Owen Zalc’s 59-yard attempt fell short at the horn. Those finishes explain why the record alone offers an incomplete picture of this matchup.

Craddock carried 22 times for 140 yards against Monmouth, including a 28-yard touchdown. Saunier added 66 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown while throwing for 148 yards and two scores. Dartmouth converted 11 of 17 third downs and scored touchdowns on all three red-zone trips. That combination makes the running game the central reason to favor the Big Green.

The defensive concern is just as relevant to the betting decision. Dartmouth allowed 31 points despite Harrison Keith’s 13 tackles, including two for loss, and Johnny Stephens’ 11 tackles and forced fumble. Those individual contributions did not produce a win. Penn’s recent offensive struggles offer encouragement, but expecting Dartmouth to hold another opponent to seven points would put too much weight on Penn’s previous game.

Key matchup factors

The common opponent adds useful perspective: Dartmouth scored 20 against Lehigh, while Penn scored seven. Still, Penn’s recap describes rain during its loss, so those scoring results deserve context. Neither game guarantees how the offenses will perform Saturday.

Third downs offer another contrast, with Dartmouth converting 11 of 17 against Monmouth and Penn four of 17 against Lehigh. Different opponents limit the comparison, but keeping Penn in difficult conversion situations would strengthen Dartmouth’s advantage.

The SportsJaw community leader was Over 39.5 (-127), with 100% support in the September 30, 12:30 p.m. UTC snapshot. That is community sentiment, not a sportsbook ticket split or an estimate of the Over’s probability.

Pennsylvania Quakers vs Dartmouth Big Green spread prediction

Pass on Dartmouth -7.5 (-141) and Pennsylvania +7.5 (-125). The projected seven-point Dartmouth victory falls just inside Penn’s spread, but that narrow distinction is too fragile to turn into an underdog recommendation.

Dartmouth’s rushing production supports the straight-up pick. Penn’s offensive difficulties also create a plausible path to a larger home win. Conversely, Dartmouth’s defensive result against Monmouth leaves room for Penn to stay close. At these prices, neither side offers enough margin for error. The forecast favors Dartmouth; the spread recommendation remains Pass.

Pennsylvania Quakers vs Dartmouth Big Green total prediction

Pass on Over 39.5 (-127) and Under 39.5 (-127). The projected 41 points sit slightly above the line, but a score estimate alone is a weak reason to pay -127.

Penn’s seven points against Lehigh support a restrained scoring outlook. Dartmouth’s 28 points scored and 31 allowed against Monmouth pull in the other direction. Its rushing success could sustain scoring drives; rushing volume alone says little about the eventual total. The community’s Over preference is worth reporting, but it supplies no additional matchup evidence strong enough to justify a wager.

Pennsylvania Quakers vs Dartmouth Big Green projected score

Projected score: Dartmouth 24, Pennsylvania 17. Craddock’s production and Saunier’s contributions through the air and on the ground give Dartmouth the stronger offensive case. Penn’s third-down struggles and interceptions against Lehigh reinforce that preference, while Holliday’s disruptive performance gives the Quakers a credible way to interrupt it.

The strongest counterargument is Dartmouth’s defense after allowing 31 points to Monmouth. Penn also won the 2025 meeting 36-24, although that result carries less weight than the current performances. Confidence is low because the edge rests heavily on a small early-season sample. Dartmouth is the projected winner; both spread sides and both total directions are a Pass. The single official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

PENN17

dart24

Projected winner Dartmouth Big GreenConfidenceSlight Lean — Pennsylvania Quakers
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Pennsylvania Quakers +7.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Dartmouth -7.5 (-141) and Pennsylvania +7.5 (-125)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 39.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 39.5 (-127) and Under 39.5 (-127)

Sources

  • University of Pennsylvania AthleticsPenn Travels to Dartmouth for Ivy League Opener
  • University of Pennsylvania AthleticsPrevious-game context: Quakers Fall to No. 6/7 Lehigh in Home Opener
  • Dartmouth College AthleticsPrevious-game context: Monmouth Edges Football, 31-28, on Late Field Goal in Home Opener

SportsJaw Quakers vs Big Green game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Quakers vs Big Green matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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