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NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Picks & Predictions

Game time: April 9, 2025 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Amalie Arena — Tampa, FL

Article updated Apr 9, 1:15 AM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be aiming for a series sweep as they visit Amalie Arena to face the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday night. Both teams are coming off impressive

Game outlook

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be aiming for a series sweep as they visit Amalie Arena to face the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday night. Both teams are coming off impressive wins, with Toronto defeating Columbus 5-0 and Tampa Bay defeating the Rangers 5-1. The Maple Leafs hold a 3-0 season series lead against the Lightning and have a strong record of 7-3-0 in their last 10 games against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay opens as the favorite in betting lines, with the current line at Tampa Bay -164. Stay tuned to see which team comes out victorious in this Maple Leafs vs. Lightning matchup. **Please note that this preview was written before Tuesday's game was played.**

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Maple Leafs +141 | Lightning -164

Spread: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-182) | Lightning -1.5 (+156)

Total: Over/Under 6 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Tampa Bay will win straight-up is 62%.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs have bounced back from a surprising loss to San Jose with four straight wins, leading the Atlantic Division with 98 points, two points ahead of Tampa Bay. They will look to increase their division lead and get the series sweep in their upcoming game on Wednesday. Toronto averages 3.28 goals per game, with top players like Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews leading the scoring. They are giving up 2.88 goals per game, ranking 14th in the league. In their last game, they did not allow a goal with Anthony Stolarz saving all 27 shots. There are some injury concerns with Jake McCabe and David Kampf questionable for the upcoming game. Overall, Toronto is ranked 8 in offense, 14 in defense, and has a record of 7-5 this season, placing them at a power ranking of 22.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Tampa Bay Lightning Analysis

The Tampa Bay Lightning recently ended a two-game losing streak with a win over the Rangers, positioning them third in the Eastern Conference standings. They are just two points behind the second-place team and aim to climb further in the rankings in their upcoming game on Wednesday. With an average of 3.56 goals per game, they scored five goals on 23 shots in their last game. Key players include Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and Brayden Point, who have contributed significantly to the team's success. Defensively, the Lightning are giving up 2.58 goals per game, ranking fourth in the league. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been instrumental in their defensive efforts with a solid performance in their last game. With a power ranking of 4, the Lightning excel in offense, defense, and overall record, dominating recent matchups against Toronto.

Tampa Bay Lightning poised for victory over Toronto Maple Leafs with strong offensive and defensive performance at home

The Tampa Bay Lightning have demonstrated strong performance with four consecutive wins at home, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have won three of their last five road games. Tampa Bay holds an advantage due to their impressive offensive capabilities, scoring 19 goals in their most recent three home games, in addition to their success on special teams with a power play conversion rate of over 25 percent. On the other hand, the Maple Leafs rank 16th in the league in penalty kills and have struggled defensively in recent road games, allowing nine goals in their last three away matches. Furthermore, with Toronto playing on consecutive nights and potentially facing fatigue, they may find it challenging to contain the Lightning's potent offense. Expect Tampa Bay to maintain a solid defensive performance, having only allowed four goals in their last three home games, which should limit Toronto's offensive success. Therefore, it is recommended to choose Tampa Bay on the money line.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#TorontoMapleLeafs#TampaBayLightning

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Maple Leafs vs Lightning archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Maple Leafs vs Lightning matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Toronto Maple Leafs+140 → +157Moved
  • Moneyline · Tampa Bay Lightning-160 → -180Moved
  • Spread · Toronto Maple Leafs+1.5 (-183) → +1.5 (-160)Moved
  • Spread · Tampa Bay Lightning-1.5 (+158) → -1.5 (+135)Moved
  • Total · Over6 (-110) → 6 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Under6 (-110) → 6 (-110)Unchanged

ATS and O/U trends

Toronto Maple Leafs
7-5 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Tampa Bay Lightning
7-3 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2025-04-09T05:15:20.705Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have bounced back from a surprising loss to San Jose with four straight wins, leading the Atlantic Division with 98 points, two points ahead of Tampa Bay. They will look to increase their division lead and get the series sweep in their upcoming game on Wednesday. Toronto averages 3.28 goals per game, with top players like Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews leading the scoring. They are giving up 2.88 goals per game, ranking 14th in the league. In their last game, they did not allow a goal with Anthony Stolarz saving all 27 shots. There are some injury concerns with Jake McCabe and David Kampf questionable for the upcoming game. Overall, Toronto is ranked 8 in offense, 14 in defense, and has a record of 7-5 this season, placing them at a power ranking of 22.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-01-20Tampa Bay Lightning 3 · Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Toronto Maple Leafs defeated Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3

Toronto Maple Leafs defeated Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 on April 9, 2025, a 1-goal decision in the series. Toronto Maple Leafs' strongest period was the 1st period, when it outscored its opponent 2-1. Against SportsJaw's recorded Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-160) spread, Toronto Maple Leafs covered, while the 7 combined goals finished over the recorded total of 6.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • 1188460207Total · Over 6 (-110)Win
  • BillywatersMoneyline · Tampa Bay Lightning -164Loss
  • GeauxtigersMoneyline · Tampa Bay Lightning -164Loss
  • KrockpicksMoneyline · Tampa Bay Lightning -164Loss
  • Altuve27Moneyline · Toronto Maple Leafs +141Win
  • CoolioTotal · Over 6 (-110)Win
  • BrycetMoneyline · Toronto Maple Leafs +155Win
  • Sammy52Total · Over 6 (-110)Win
  • VegaspatTotal · Under 6 (-110)Loss