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  3. Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Wed 7:00 PM ET
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Lightning6
7-3
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Tampa Bay Lightning2316
NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Picks & Predictions

Game time: April 17, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Amalie Arena — Tampa, FL

Article updated Apr 17, 6:16 AM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Toronto Maple Leafs (46-24-10) will be looking to finish their regular season strong with a win against the Tampa Bay Lightning (44-29-8) on Wednesday night at Amalie

Game outlook

The Toronto Maple Leafs (46-24-10) will be looking to finish their regular season strong with a win against the Tampa Bay Lightning (44-29-8) on Wednesday night at Amalie Arena. Both teams are coming off recent losses, with Toronto falling to Detroit 5-4 and Tampa Bay losing to Buffalo 4-2. Toronto has a recent history of success against Tampa Bay, boasting a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 matchups. The Lightning open as the betting favorites at -130 and the line has remained unchanged. The game is set to begin at 7 PM. ET.

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Maple Leafs +110 | Lightning -130

Spread: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225) | Lightning -1.5 (+185)

Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Tampa Bay will win straight-up is 57%.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs recently experienced two losses following a three-game winning streak, but are determined to finish their season with a win for their fourth consecutive road victory. Despite currently holding the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference standings, they have been averaging 3.65 goals per game and scored four goals on 36 shots in their last game, with key contributions from Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly, and Auston Matthews. However, the team has struggled defensively, giving up an average of 3.13 goals per game and allowing five goals in their last game. Goaltender Ilya Samsonov has a record of 23-7-8 in 40 games with a 3.13 GAA and a .890 save percentage. Max Domi is out with an undisclosed injury, while Joel Edmundson is questionable. With a power ranking of 12, Toronto ranks first in offense, averaging 3.71 goals per game, 17th in defense, allowing 3.15 goals per game, and has a season record of 7-5.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Tampa Bay Lightning Analysis

The Tampa Bay Lightning have struggled in their recent games, losing four of their last five and currently sitting sixth in the Eastern Conference standings, six games behind Toronto. The team will look to end their season on a positive note with a win on Wednesday. Offensively, Tampa Bay is averaging 3.48 goals per game, with Steven Stamkos and Erik Cernak scoring in their last game. Defensively, they have given up an average of 3.25 goals per game and will need to improve in that area. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 2.90 GAA and a .900 save percentage. In terms of power rankings, Tampa Bay is ranked sixth overall, fifth in offense, and 22nd in defense, with a record of 7-3. Toronto has had the edge in their recent matchups, going 1-0-2 against Tampa Bay. For betting enthusiasts, top sportsbooks are recommended for potential profit.

Toronto Maple Leafs Dominate Tampa Bay Lightning with Strong Offensive and Special Teams Performance

The Toronto Maple Leafs have demonstrated significant success in recent games, with three victories out of their last five matchups, including three consecutive wins on the road. Offensively, they have been particularly strong, scoring a total of 12 goals during their last three road games. Additionally, their special teams performance has been impressive, successfully converting over 24% of power play opportunities. On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Lightning have faced challenges, losing four of their last five games and three of their last four home games. Their offensive productivity has been lacking, with only six goals scored in their most recent three games. While the Lightning have excelled at killing penalties and have a power play conversion rate exceeding 28%, the Maple Leafs have proven to be adept at both penalty killing and defensive play, allowing just four goals in their last three road games. Consequently, it is anticipated that Toronto will be able to contain Tampa Bay's offensive efforts. Based on these factors, it is recommended to place a wager on the Toronto Maple Leafs to cover the money line.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#TorontoMapleLeafs#TampaBayLightning

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Maple Leafs vs Lightning archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Maple Leafs vs Lightning matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Toronto Maple Leafs+110 → +100Moved
  • Moneyline · Tampa Bay Lightning-130 → -120Moved
  • Spread · Toronto Maple Leafs+1.5 (-220) → +1.5 (-226)Moved
  • Spread · Tampa Bay Lightning-1.5 (+185) → -1.5 (+190)Moved
  • Total · Over6.5 (-110) → 6.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Under6.5 (-110) → 6.5 (-110)Unchanged

ATS and O/U trends

Toronto Maple Leafs
7-5 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Tampa Bay Lightning
7-3 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 3-5-2 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2024-04-17T10:16:41.512Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The Toronto Maple Leafs recently experienced two losses following a three-game winning streak, but are determined to finish their season with a win for their fourth consecutive road victory. Despite currently holding the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference standings, they have been averaging 3.65 goals per game and scored four goals on 36 shots in their last game, with key contributions from Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly, and Auston Matthews. However, the team has struggled defensively, giving up an average of 3.13 goals per game and allowing five goals in their last game. Goaltender Ilya Samsonov has a record of 23-7-8 in 40 games with a 3.13 GAA and a .890 save percentage. Max Domi is out with an undisclosed injury, while Joel Edmundson is questionable. With a power ranking of 12, Toronto ranks first in offense, averaging 3.71 goals per game, 17th in defense, allowing 3.15 goals per game, and has a season record of 7-5.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2024-04-03Tampa Bay Lightning 4 · Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Tampa Bay Lightning defeated Toronto Maple Leafs 6-4

Tampa Bay Lightning defeated Toronto Maple Leafs 6-4 on April 17, 2024, a 2-goal decision in the series. Tampa Bay Lightning's strongest period was the 2nd period, when it outscored its opponent 3-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-226) spread, Tampa Bay Lightning covered, while the 10 combined goals finished over the recorded total of 6.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • Fisher49Total · Over 6.5 (-110)Win
  • GeorgewTotal · Under 6.5 (-110)Loss
  • MikehuffTotal · Under 6.5 (-110)Loss
  • Barry713Total · Under 6.5 (-110)Loss
  • NutinbutlocksMoneyline · Tampa Bay Lightning -130Win
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 6.5 (-110)Win
  • Joem81Moneyline · Toronto Maple Leafs +110Loss
  • SimonsaysMoneyline · Tampa Bay Lightning -130Win
  • Mr_BiggsMoneyline · Toronto Maple Leafs +110Loss
  • 1188460207Total · Over 6.5 (-110)Win
  • DerekFisherMoneyline · Tampa Bay Lightning -125Win