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NHL PicksThu 8:00 PM ET
Winnipeg Jets logo
Winnipeg
Jets
4-3
versus
Dallas Stars logo
Dallas
Stars
5-3
NHL · Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars

Your Picks on Jets vs Stars

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Winnipeg vs Dallas consensus picks

Winnipeg Jets57%
43%Dallas Stars
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Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars Predictions Today

Game time: October 22, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: American Airlines Center — Dallas, TX

Article updated Oct 22, 7:34 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Dallas Stars are projected to beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-2 on October 22, with their 90.6% penalty kill providing the strongest matchup reason to favor Dallas. That unit faces Winnipeg’s 26.1% power play, but Esa Lindell’s injury and the Jets’ scoring threat keep confidence low. Neither the supplied puck-line prices nor the 5.5 total offers a strong enough edge for an actionable wager.

Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars prediction and best bet

Dallas is the pick to win, but the official betting recommendation is Pass. The Stars’ penalty killing gives them a credible answer to Winnipeg’s effective power play. Their four consecutive wins against the Jets add support to the forecast, although that series history deserves less weight than the current matchup.

The distinction is the winning margin. Dallas can be the likelier winner without being worth backing at -1.5 (+130). Winnipeg has enough offensive threat to keep this close, and Dallas’s defensive injury complicates the case for separation. A Stars 3-2 victory fits those competing factors better than a confident multi-goal prediction.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL, Thursday, October 22, 2026. This is the first of four meetings between the teams in the 2026-27 season.

Time: 7 p.m. Dallas local time, CDT.

Venue: American Airlines Center.

Records and division: Dallas is 5-3-1 with 11 points, third in the Central Division. Winnipeg is 4-3-2 with 10 points, fifth in the Central.

SportsJaw moneylines: Winnipeg +170; Dallas -200.

SportsJaw puck lines: Winnipeg +1.5 (-150); Dallas -1.5 (+130). Total: Over 5.5 (-120); Under 5.5 (+100).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Winnipeg Jets outlook

Kyle Connor leads Winnipeg in goals and points with eight goals and three assists through nine games. That production gives the Jets a dangerous individual scorer in a matchup where a single finish could change the result. It does not, by itself, show how much offense Winnipeg will generate against Dallas.

The Jets have converted six of 23 power-play opportunities, a 26.1% rate. Their penalty kill has stopped 19 of 24 chances, or 79.2%, making the two sides of their special-teams profile distinctly different. Winnipeg can threaten with an extra skater while still giving Dallas an opening when the Jets take penalties.

Winnipeg’s 2-1-1 road record is another reason to expect a competitive game. It is a small sample, but it offers no reason to treat the trip to Dallas as an overwhelming disadvantage.

Dallas Stars outlook

Mikko Rantanen leads Dallas with five goals and 11 points in nine games. His six assists also contribute to that scoring lead. The Stars have an offensive focal point whose early production matches Connor’s point total, even though Connor has scored more goals.

Dallas has killed 29 of 32 penalties, producing its 90.6% success rate. Its power play has been less productive than Winnipeg’s, converting four of 23 opportunities for 17.4%. The Stars’ special-teams advantage therefore rests primarily on preventing goals, rather than a clear superiority across both units.

Esa Lindell is expected to miss at least a week with a lower-body injury, and Dallas identifies Kyle Capobianco as a defenseman being asked to step forward. That absence adds uncertainty to the defensive outlook. A 2-2-0 home record also tempers any assumption that Dallas should dominate simply because it hosts this game.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Dallas’s penalty kill can suppress Winnipeg’s power play. Both units have strong early percentages, so this is a strength meeting a strength. Those rates favor a cautious Dallas forecast, but they do not predict how many penalties either team will take.

SportsJaw’s combined moneyline consensus favors Dallas at 81%, with 488 Dallas selections among 602 combined consensus picks. Those counts incorporate a modeled sportsbook sample and SportsJaw participation; they are not observed sportsbook ticket totals or an estimate of Dallas’s chance to win.

At the October 22 update around 11:24 a.m. UTC, the sportsbook moneyline split favored Dallas at 89%, while the SportsJaw member share was evenly divided at 50%. That difference matters: the combined figure reflects the published 80% sportsbook and 20% member weighting, rather than uniform agreement.

Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars spread prediction

Pass on both Dallas -1.5 (+130) and Winnipeg +1.5 (-150). The projected one-goal Dallas win points toward Winnipeg covering, but the -150 price requires more conviction in a close result than this matchup warrants.

Dallas leads the blended spread consensus at 62%, although sentiment moved 13 percentage points toward Winnipeg compared with the October 21 snapshot. That is a change in consensus preference, not a change in the supplied line. Dallas’s plus-money return is appealing only if its likelihood of winning by multiple goals justifies the risk; the current case is too fragile.

Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars total prediction

Pass on Over 5.5 (-120) and Under 5.5 (+100). The five-goal projection falls below the total, but a single projected score is not enough to make Under the official wager.

The blended total consensus favors Over at 74%, and both teams have a leading scorer with 11 points through nine games. Dallas’s strong penalty kill offers a counterweight, while Lindell’s absence adds defensive uncertainty. Neither direction carries a sufficiently clear edge at its supplied price.

Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars projected score

Game forecast: Dallas Stars 3, Winnipeg Jets 2. Confidence is low. Dallas gets the narrow nod because its penalty kill is a credible counter to Winnipeg’s power play, with Rantanen providing an established scoring presence in this season’s opening nine games.

The strongest counterargument is Connor’s eight-goal start against a Dallas defense missing Lindell. Expect a competitive matchup rather than a comfortable favorite’s win. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass, with both the puck line and total left alone.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Jets2

Stars3

Projected winner Dallas StarsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Dallas Stars -1.5 (+130) and Winnipeg Jets +1.5 (-150)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 5.5 (-120) and Under 5.5 (+100)

Sources

  • Dallas StarsGame Day Guide: Jets vs Stars
  • AgentBets.aiWinnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars Odds — Spread, Moneyline & Total (Oct 22)

SportsJaw Jets vs Stars game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Jets vs Stars matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

Moneyline crowd
Winnipeg Jets +170 · 50%
Moneyline qualified handicappers
Insufficient qualified picks
Total crowd
Over 5.5 (-120) · 100%
Total qualified handicappers
Insufficient qualified picks
Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Winnipeg Jets+174 → +170Moved
  • Moneyline · Dallas Stars-174 → -200Moved
  • Spread · Winnipeg Jets-1.5 (+376) → +1.5 (-152)Moved
  • Spread · Dallas Stars+1.5 (-614) → -1.5 (+132)Moved
  • Total · Over5.5 (-122) → 5.5 (-120)Moved
  • Total · Under5.5 (-127) → 5.5 (+100)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Winnipeg Jets
4-3 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 3-6-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Dallas Stars
5-3 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 1-9-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-22T11:34:54.755Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The distinction is the winning margin. Dallas can be the likelier winner without being worth backing at -1.5 (+130). Winnipeg has enough offensive threat to keep this close, and Dallas’s defensive injury complicates the case for separation. A Stars 3-2 victory fits those competing factors better than a confident multi-goal prediction.

Esa Lindell is expected to miss at least a week with a lower-body injury, and Dallas identifies Kyle Capobianco as a defenseman being asked to step forward. That absence adds uncertainty to the defensive outlook. A 2-2-0 home record also tempers any assumption that Dallas should dominate simply because it hosts this game.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-02-02Winnipeg Jets 3 · Dallas Stars 4
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