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NHL PicksSat 7:00 PM ET
Buffalo Sabres logo
Buffalo
Sabres
2-3-0
versus
Montreal Canadiens logo
Montreal
Canadiens
2-2-1
NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens

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Buffalo vs Montreal consensus picks

Buffalo Sabres87%
13%Montreal Canadiens
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Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Predictions Today

Game time: October 17, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Bell Centre — Montreal, QC

Article updated Oct 17, 10:00 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Montreal Canadiens will beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in our forecast for October 17, with Lane Hutson’s production against Buffalo and Rasmus Dahlin’s absence providing the strongest matchup reasons. Buffalo’s comeback ability and Montreal’s unsettled goaltending keep the edge slim. Neither the supplied puck-line prices nor the 6.5 total offers enough value for an actionable wager; the official recommendation is Pass.

Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens prediction and best bet

Montreal is the pick in this 2026-27 NHL matchup, with low confidence. Hutson gives the Canadiens a productive contributor against this opponent, while Buffalo must play without Dahlin. Those factors favor Montreal narrowly, but the Sabres’ recent offensive contributions make a comfortable Canadiens win a tougher call.

The best bet is Pass. Picking Montreal to win does not mean backing its -1.5 puck line, and a seven-goal projection alone is not a strong enough argument for Over 6.5. Both markets carry meaningful uncertainty.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and venue: Saturday, October 17, 2026, at Bell Centre in Montreal. This is the teams’ second meeting of the week.

SportsJaw moneyline: Buffalo Sabres +125; Montreal Canadiens -141.

SportsJaw puck line: Buffalo Sabres +1.5 (-206); Montreal Canadiens -1.5 (+175). Total: Over 6.5 (-110) and Under 6.5 (-110).

Record: Buffalo enters 2-3-0. Montreal said its official lineup would follow Saturday’s morning skate; its starting goaltender remained unsettled between Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler.

Buffalo Sabres outlook

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Buffalo’s results show both resilience and a recurring problem. The Sabres have recovered from two-goal deficits in four games, collecting seven points in those contests. Their second-period goal differential ranks last at minus-10, while their third-period differential ranks second at plus-7. The late recoveries are encouraging, but repeatedly needing them leaves little room for another poor stretch.

The most promising offensive combination is Zach Benson, Noah Östlund and Jack Quinn. Buffalo has outscored opponents 6-1 at five-on-five with that trio together. Quinn matched his career single-game highs with four points and a plus-4 rating in the October 15 overtime victory at Toronto. Benson has four assists across a three-game point streak.

Dahlin is ruled out with an upper-body injury. Josh Norris returned to Friday’s optional practice after an awkward hit in Thursday’s overtime, and Buffalo hoped Jiri Kulich could rejoin the trip after negative tests following illness. Neither update should be treated as confirmation that those forwards will play.

Montreal Canadiens outlook

Montreal took the October 13 meeting 4-3 in a shootout. That result offers a recent example of how close these teams can play, rather than a persuasive reason to expect separation in the rematch.

Hutson’s opponent-specific production is more useful to the forecast. After his two-point performance on October 13, he had 22 points, comprising two goals and 20 assists, in 16 career regular-season and playoff appearances against Buffalo. That history makes him a central threat without guaranteeing another multiple-point game.

The concern is in goal. Dobes entered with a 1-2-1 record, an .842 save percentage and a 4.63 goals-against average. Those numbers invite caution about Montreal’s defensive margin, but they cannot simply be applied to Fowler if he starts. The unresolved choice keeps the Canadiens’ advantage fragile.

Key matchup factors

The decisive question is whether Montreal can turn Buffalo’s vulnerable middle period into an advantage that survives the third. Buffalo’s period splits favor a forecast with momentum changes; they do not make another comeback inevitable. Likewise, Dahlin’s absence strengthens the case for Montreal without proving which team will control possession.

As of October 17 at 13:53 UTC, the combined SportsJaw moneyline consensus favored Montreal -141 at 54%, with 325 Montreal selections against 277 Buffalo selections. Those 602 combined selections include a modeled sportsbook sample and SportsJaw participation, rather than an observed sportsbook ticket count.

SportsJaw members favored Buffalo +125 at 100%, while the sportsbook split favored Montreal -141 at 67%. The combined measure moved three percentage points toward Buffalo from October 16. These are different measures of preference, not team win probabilities, and their disagreement reinforces the modest confidence.

Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Buffalo Sabres +1.5 (-206) and Montreal Canadiens -1.5 (+175). The projected one-goal result favors Buffalo’s cushion, but -206 demands more confidence in a close finish than this matchup warrants.

Montreal’s +175 return for covering -1.5 is tempting only if the Canadiens can create separation. Buffalo’s productive five-on-five combination and strong third periods make that a difficult position to endorse. A Montreal winner pick remains compatible with passing both puck-line options.

Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 6.5 (-110) and Under 6.5 (-110). Buffalo’s productive trio and Dobes’ early results give the Over a plausible case. The projected Canadiens 4, Sabres 3 result also falls above the total.

Still, Montreal’s unconfirmed starter makes the scoring outlook sensitive to a key lineup decision. The combined total consensus is evenly divided, with 300 modeled equivalent selections on each side. Neither that split nor a narrow score projection supplies enough conviction to make the Over an official play, and the Under has no stronger case.

Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens projected score

Game forecast: Montreal Canadiens 4, Buffalo Sabres 3. Hutson’s history against Buffalo and Dahlin’s confirmed absence give Montreal the slight edge. The strongest counterargument is Buffalo’s effective scoring trio facing a Canadiens team with uncertainty in goal.

Confidence is low because the reasons favoring Montreal coexist with credible paths to a Buffalo win. The Canadiens remain the projected winner, both the spread and total recommendations are Pass, and the single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Sabres3

Canadiens4

Projected winner Montreal CanadiensConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Buffalo Sabres +1.5 (-206) and Montreal Canadiens -1.5 (+175).

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 6.5 (-110) and Under 6.5 (-110).

Sources

  • Buffalo SabresSabres at Canadiens | How to watch, lineup notes, and storylines
  • Montréal CanadiensBUF@MTL: What you need to know

SportsJaw Sabres vs Canadiens game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Sabres vs Canadiens matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

Moneyline crowd
Buffalo Sabres +120 · 100%
Moneyline qualified handicappers
Insufficient qualified picks
Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Buffalo Sabres+125 → +120Moved
  • Moneyline · Montreal Canadiens-141 → -140Moved
  • Spread · Buffalo Sabres+1.5 (-206) → +1.5 (-205)Moved
  • Spread · Montreal Canadiens-1.5 (+175) → -1.5 (+175)Unchanged
  • Total · Over6.5 (-110) → 6.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Under6.5 (-110) → 6.5 (-110)Unchanged

ATS and O/U trends

Buffalo Sabres
2-3-0 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Montreal Canadiens
2-2-1 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-17T14:00:23.713Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Dahlin is ruled out with an upper-body injury. Josh Norris returned to Friday’s optional practice after an awkward hit in Thursday’s overtime, and Buffalo hoped Jiri Kulich could rejoin the trip after negative tests following illness. Neither update should be treated as confirmation that those forwards will play.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-10-13Buffalo Sabres 3 · Montreal Canadiens 4
  • 2026-05-18Montreal Canadiens 3 · Buffalo Sabres 2
  • 2026-05-16Buffalo Sabres 8 · Montreal Canadiens 3
  • 2026-05-14Montreal Canadiens 6 · Buffalo Sabres 3
  • 2026-05-12Buffalo Sabres 3 · Montreal Canadiens 2
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