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NHL PicksFri 9:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Pittsburgh
Penguins
3-2-1
versus
Colorado Avalanche logo
Colorado
Avalanche
3-2-0
NHL · PIT at COL

Your Picks on Penguins vs Avalanche

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Pittsburgh vs Colorado consensus picks

PIT32%
68%COL

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche Predictions Today

Game time: October 16, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET

Venue: Ball Arena — Denver, CO

Article updated Oct 16, 7:17 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Colorado will beat Pittsburgh, with a projected score of Colorado Avalanche 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3, behind the Avalanche’s stronger early scoring production and Nathan MacKinnon’s 12 points through seven games. Colorado’s demanding schedule makes the margin less convincing than the winner. Neither the supplied puck line nor the 6.5 total offers a strong enough edge for an actionable wager.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche prediction and best bet

Colorado is the pick in this October 16 NHL matchup, the teams’ first meeting of the 2026-27 season. The Avalanche have scored seven more goals than Pittsburgh through seven games while allowing the same number. That offensive separation supports a home win, with MacKinnon leading Colorado’s attack.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. A projected one-goal Colorado victory makes Pittsburgh’s puck line worth examining, but a score forecast alone is not enough to justify paying -135. Colorado’s offensive advantage also leaves a credible path to a wider margin.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Friday, October 16, 2026, at 9:00 p.m. ET.

Venue: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

Television: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Altitude Sports and KTVD are listed as outlets.

Records: Colorado is 4-2-1 with nine points and a 2-1-1 home record. Pittsburgh is 3-3-1 with seven points and a 1-2-1 road record.

Projected goaltenders: Arturs Silovs for Pittsburgh and Mackenzie Blackwood for Colorado. Neither is confirmed.

SportsJaw moneyline: Pittsburgh +183; Colorado -210. Puck line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-135); Colorado -1.5 (+117). Total: Over 6.5 (-118); Under 6.5 (+102).

Pittsburgh Penguins outlook

Pittsburgh’s offense has contributors beyond Sidney Crosby. Nick Robertson leads the Penguins with four goals, while Erik Karlsson leads them with seven assists and seven points through seven games. Their production gives Pittsburgh several routes to offense against a Colorado team that has allowed 21 goals.

Crosby scored his first two goals of the season in the October 13 loss at Chicago, which finished 5-3. He also had two assists through seven games. That performance is encouraging for the forecast, although one productive night is a limited foundation for predicting a sustained scoring surge.

Silovs carries a 3-1-0 record and a 2.73 goals-against average. Pittsburgh’s injured-reserve list includes defensemen Trevor van Riemsdyk, with a lower-body injury, and Ryan Graves, with a knee injury, plus forward Justin Brazeau, with a lower-body injury. The Penguins acquired Ryan Johnson from Buffalo earlier in the week to fill the seventh-defenseman role.

Colorado Avalanche outlook

MacKinnon’s five goals and seven assists account for 12 points through seven games. Colorado has generated 214 shots and converted 14.5% of them, compared with Pittsburgh’s 199 shots and 12.1% conversion rate. Both shot volume and finishing have contributed to the Avalanche’s scoring advantage.

Colorado is 1-1-1 over its past three games. Its consecutive meetings with Dallas ended in a 3-2 win on October 13 and a 3-2 shootout loss on October 14. Gabriel Landeskog and Brock Nelson scored in the latter game, while Nazem Kadri contributed two assists.

Cale Makar returned on October 14 after missing the preceding game for the birth of his twins. Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux are listed as day-to-day with lower-body and upper-body injuries, respectively. Logan O'Connor and Georgii Merkulov are on injured reserve. Blackwood has three wins and a 3.04 goals-against average, but his projected start remains unconfirmed.

Key matchup factors

The central question is how much Colorado’s schedule reduces its offensive advantage. This is the Avalanche’s third game in four nights. That workload is a reason to temper expectations for a comfortable victory, although it does not guarantee a close game or a slower pace.

The seven-game sample also calls for restraint. Colorado’s higher shooting percentage helps explain its lead in goals, but that finishing gap need not carry into this matchup. With both teams having conceded 21 goals, the early defensive totals offer less separation than the offensive numbers.

As of October 16 at 11:09 UTC, SportsJaw’s blended spread consensus favored Colorado -1.5 (+117) at 75%, up five percentage points from the October 15 snapshot. Separately, SportsJaw members favored Pittsburgh +183 on the moneyline at 67%, while qualified handicappers favored that selection at 64%. Those are different markets and groups, not interchangeable estimates of Pittsburgh’s winning probability.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche spread prediction

Pass on Pittsburgh +1.5 (-135) and Colorado -1.5 (+117). Pittsburgh fits the projected one-goal finish, but the price demands more than a plausible close-game scenario. Colorado’s recent one-goal results against Dallas are too narrow a sample to make that margin dependable here.

Colorado’s scoring advantage and spread consensus make the favorite’s side credible, too. Still, asking the Avalanche to win by at least two goals adds a condition that the schedule and modest early sample make difficult to endorse. Neither side earns an official puck-line wager.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche total prediction

Pass on Over 6.5 (-118) and Under 6.5 (+102). The projected 4-3 result points slightly toward the Over, but seven goals would clear the line by the smallest possible margin. The teams’ early offensive production gives that forecast a reasonable foundation without making the Over a strong bet.

SportsJaw members and qualified handicappers each favor Under 6.5 (+102) at 67%. That preference is a counterweight to the scoring outlook, not proof of a low-scoring result. With the starting goalies still projected and the forecast close to the threshold, the total remains a Pass.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche projected score

Game forecast: Colorado Avalanche 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3. Confidence is medium. Colorado’s stronger early offense supports the winner, while its third game in four nights is the strongest counterargument to expecting control throughout.

Pittsburgh has enough scoring contributions to make a competitive finish plausible. The precise margin is less secure than the Colorado selection, and neither betting market offers a demonstrated edge at the supplied prices. The single official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

PIT3

COL4

Projected winner Colorado AvalancheConfidenceSlight Lean — Pittsburgh Penguins
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 (-135) and Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+117)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 6.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 6.5 (-118) and Under 6.5 (+102)

Sources

  • CBS Sports / Field Level MediaAvalanche host Penguins in third game in four nights
  • FuboPittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche – Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (October 16, 2026)
  • Total Apex SportsPenguins vs Avalanche Preview: What To Know Before Friday

SportsJaw Penguins vs Avalanche game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Penguins vs Avalanche matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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