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NHL PicksSat 7:00 PM ET
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Toronto
Maple Leafs
1-2-0
versus
Colorado Avalanche logo
Colorado
Avalanche
0-0-0
NHL · TOR at COL

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche Predictions October 10, 2026

Game time: October 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Ball Arena — Denver, CO

Article updated Oct 9, 10:34 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Colorado Avalanche are projected to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 on October 10, with their 23 goals through four games providing the strongest reason to favor them. That scoring surge supports the winner forecast, but the small sample leaves the betting edge uncertain. Neither the supplied puck line nor Over 6.5 at -156 offers a sufficiently convincing wager.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche prediction and best bet

Colorado is the pick because its early scoring production offers the clearest advantage in this matchup. The Avalanche followed that productive start with a 7-3 victory over Calgary on October 8. Toronto arrives after surrendering a three-goal lead in a 4-3 shootout loss at Vegas.

The official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass. Picking Colorado to win is easier than backing a two-goal margin, and a projected seven-goal finish leaves little room above the total of 6.5. The forecast is Colorado Avalanche 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3, with low confidence given the limited early-season evidence.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, October 10, 2026, at 5 p.m. MDT. Colorado's official recap confirms the Avalanche will host Toronto next in this 2026-27 NHL matchup.

SportsJaw moneyline: Toronto Maple Leafs +199; Colorado Avalanche -199.

SportsJaw puck line: Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-104); Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-163).

SportsJaw total: Over 6.5 (-156); Under 6.5 (+104).

Records: Toronto stood at 2-2-1 after its October 8 game. Colorado improved to 3-1-0 with its win that night.

Toronto Maple Leafs outlook

Toronto's opening burst in Vegas gives the underdog a credible offensive argument. Jack Roslovic scored after 34 seconds, Easton Cowan added a goal at 3:20, and Nick Paul also scored as Toronto built a 3-0 first-period lead. Auston Matthews and Gavin McKenna each contributed an assist.

Protecting that advantage proved harder. Sergei Bobrovsky made 40 saves, but Toronto still lost in a shootout. The performance illustrates both sides of the forecast: the Maple Leafs can strike quickly, yet their most recent game offers reason to question whether an early lead would be enough against Colorado.

The October 9 injury report lists Oliver Ekman-Larsson as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. Max Domi is on injured reserve with a back injury, while Dakota Joshua is on injured reserve with an abdomen injury. Those statuses add personnel uncertainty without establishing Toronto's eventual lineup.

Colorado Avalanche outlook

Colorado's latest offensive output came from several contributors. Cale Makar, Devon Toews and Jaden Schwartz each scored twice against Calgary, while Nathan MacKinnon supplied the other goal. Makar, Schwartz and MacKinnon each finished that game with three goals for the season.

Goals from Makar and Toews give Toronto more to account for than the Avalanche forwards alone. Still, a single explosive performance should carry less weight than a sustained pattern over a longer schedule. Scott Wedgewood made 26 saves in the Calgary win; that appearance does not confirm his assignment against Toronto.

Colorado also has injury questions. The October 9 report lists Logan O'Connor on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, expected out until at least October 10. Georgii Merkulov is on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury, expected out until at least October 16. O'Connor's listed date is not confirmation of a return for this game.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Toronto can sustain its offense while limiting Colorado's responses. The Vegas game supplies evidence of a fast start, but surrendering that lead makes it difficult to build the forecast around Toronto controlling the contest.

Sample size matters just as much as scoring volume. Colorado's four-game production deserves weight in selecting a winner, but extending that pace directly into a betting probability would be too aggressive. Toronto's shootout defeat also should not be treated as a straightforward example of seven goals scored during normal play.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche spread prediction

Pass on Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-104) and Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-163). The projected one-goal finish favors Toronto within the forecast, but one exact-score estimate is not enough to establish value on the puck line.

Colorado's four-goal victory over Calgary is the strongest counterargument to backing Toronto with the cushion. Conversely, paying -163 for Colorado to win by at least two demands more certainty about the margin than these recent performances offer.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche total prediction

Pass on Over 6.5 (-156) and Under 6.5 (+104). Colorado's scoring makes the Over tempting, and the projected 4-3 result falls above the line. However, that narrow forecast margin does not justify the Over's price.

The Under is not an automatic alternative simply because it returns plus money. Colorado's production is a meaningful risk to that position. With no confirmed starting goaltenders in the accepted reporting, neither direction earns an official recommendation.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche projected score

Game forecast: Colorado Avalanche 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3. Colorado's scoring output earns the winner selection; Toronto's demonstrated ability to generate an early lead is the strongest reason to expect resistance.

Confidence is low because the forecast rests heavily on a short opening stretch and neither recent goaltending appearance confirms the next starter. Both the spread and total recommendations are Pass. The single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

TOR3

COL4

Projected winner Colorado AvalancheConfidenceSlight Lean — Toronto Maple Leafs
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-104) and Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-163).

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 6.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 6.5 (-156) and Under 6.5 (+104).

Sources

  • NHL.comPrevious-game context: Golden Knights rally from down three, edge Maple Leafs in shootout
  • Colorado Avalanche / NHL.comPrevious-game context: Makar Scores Twice in Homecoming, Toews and Schwartz Both Post Two Tallies in Avalanche's 7-3 Win Against Flames
  • CBS SportsNHL Injury Report and Status 2026-27

SportsJaw Maple Leafs vs Avalanche game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Maple Leafs vs Avalanche matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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