Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts prediction: Texans narrowly favored, best bet Pass
The Houston Texans will beat the Indianapolis Colts, Texans 23, Colts 20, with Indianapolis' last-place defensive averages providing the strongest matchup reason. Houston's six-point performance without Nico Collins last week makes this a low-confidence forecast, however. At Houston -1.5 (-115) and a total of 42.5 (-110), neither market offers a convincing enough edge for an actionable wager. The official recommendation is Pass.
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts prediction and best bet
Houston gets the nod because Indianapolis entered Week 3 last in the NFL in yards allowed per game, yards allowed per play and points allowed per game. The Colts also missed 28 tackles through two weeks, the league's second-highest total according to the Pro Football Focus figures cited by Colts.com. Those weaknesses offer Houston a route to an offensive recovery.
The best bet is Pass. Houston must pursue that recovery without Collins, who is out again with a hamstring injury. Indianapolis' defensive numbers favor the Texans, but Houston's own offensive instability limits the appeal of laying points. Predicting a narrow Houston victory is easier than finding a dependable betting edge.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Game: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, September 27, 2026, in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium.
Records and streaks: Both teams enter 0-2. Indianapolis has lost nine consecutive games and five straight meetings with Houston.
SportsJaw odds: Houston Texans -1.5 (-110); Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (-110). Moneyline: Houston Texans -123; Indianapolis Colts +103. Total: Over 42.5 (-108); Under 42.5 (-110).