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  3. Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
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Steelers vs. Patriots: Early defensive numbers leave room for doubt, but no clear bet

Game time: September 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

Venue: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA

Article updated Sep 18, 6:10 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Pittsburgh's opening defensive performance deserves attention, but its offensive limitations complicate the case against favored New England.

One week offers an incomplete picture

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, September 20, 2026, at 1:00 p.m. EDT in Week 2 of the NFL season. Pittsburgh enters 1-0 after beating Atlanta 20-13; New England is 0-1.

The Patriots' official game preview lists Pittsburgh with 238 yards allowed, including 118 passing yards, and four sacks in its opener. New England allowed 285 yards and recorded two sacks. Turnovers also favored Pittsburgh's opening performance: the Steelers finished plus-one, compared with New England's minus-three. Those results give Pittsburgh an encouraging defensive starting point, but one game cannot establish how consistently either team will perform.

Pittsburgh's offense supplies the counterargument. The Steelers converted 3 of 13 third downs, while Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle combined for 61 rushing yards. Aaron Rodgers completed three passes of at least 20 yards to wide receivers and a 19-yard pass to Pat Freiermuth. That combination shows some passing production alongside difficulty sustaining possessions. New England finished its opener with 277 total yards and 10 points.

Availability complicates the matchup

Pittsburgh's injury report says Patriots receiver A.J. Brown is out for at least four games with an ankle injury. New England cornerback Carlton Davis III and tackle Dametrious Crownover missed Thursday's practice.

The Patriots' report also lists Pittsburgh receiver Michael Pittman Jr., tight end Darnell Washington and defensive tackle Cameron Heyward as Thursday nonparticipants. Tackle Troy Fautanu and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. were limited. Those practice designations leave availability questions; they do not establish that those players will miss Sunday's game.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Price and decision

SportsJaw lists New England at -5 (-110) and -220 moneyline, with Pittsburgh +5 (-110) and +200 moneyline. The total is 41.5, with over 41.5 (-110) and under 41.5 (-110).

Pittsburgh's defensive numbers offer a reason to consider the underdog, but its offensive limitations weaken that case. The opening scoring results also warrant considering the under, without establishing an edge at 41.5. With only one game of performance evidence and unresolved availability questions, neither a side nor a total has sufficient support. Betting lean: Pass. No winner or score projection.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass

Sources

  • New England PatriotsGame Preview: Patriots vs. Steelers
  • Pittsburgh SteelersIn-season process hits 'Opponent Wednesday'
  • Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 2 Injury Report (Patriots)
#PittsburghSteelers#NewEnglandPatriots

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Steelers vs Patriots game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Steelers vs Patriots matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Pittsburgh Steelers+185 → +186Moved
  • Moneyline · New England Patriots-229 → -220Moved
  • Spread · Pittsburgh Steelers+4.5 (-110) → +4.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Spread · New England Patriots-4.5 (-110) → -4.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Over43.5 (-110) → 41.5 (-105)Moved
  • Total · Under43.5 (-110) → 41.5 (-115)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Pittsburgh Steelers
1-0 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 4-5-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
New England Patriots
0-1 matchup record · 6-3-1 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-09-13T04:12:55.469Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Pittsburgh's injury report says Patriots receiver A.J. Brown is out for at least four games with an ankle injury. New England cornerback Carlton Davis III and tackle Dametrious Crownover missed Thursday's practice.

The Patriots' report also lists Pittsburgh receiver Michael Pittman Jr., tight end Darnell Washington and defensive tackle Cameron Heyward as Thursday nonparticipants. Tackle Troy Fautanu and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. were limited. Those practice designations leave availability questions; they do not establish that those players will miss Sunday's game.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-09-21Pittsburgh Steelers 21 · New England Patriots 14
Final result

Matchup pick recap

New England Patriots defeated Pittsburgh Steelers 20-3

New England Patriots defeated Pittsburgh Steelers 20-3 on September 20, 2026, a 17-point decision in the series. New England Patriots' strongest period was the 1st quarter, when it outscored its opponent 7-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 (-110) spread, New England Patriots covered, while the 23 combined points finished under the recorded total of 41.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable
  • SpreadPassPass
  • TotalPassPass

Tipster picks

  • MaddogTotal · Under 43.5 (-112)Win
  • MookiebetsSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 (-110)Loss
  • DoclocksSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 (-110)Loss
  • JoeyBergTotal · Over 42 (-110)Loss
  • DrfeelgoodSpread · New England Patriots +5.5 (-113)Win
  • DerekFisherSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-113)Loss
  • Mickey619Spread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-110)Loss
  • Barry713Spread · New England Patriots -5.5 (-110)Win
  • KingjamesSpread · New England Patriots -5.5 (-110)Win
  • CovergirlTotal · Under 42 (-110)Win
  • AveragejoeTotal · Under 42 (-110)Win
  • TphamSpread · New England Patriots -5.5 (-110)Win
  • JohnnywalkerSpread · New England Patriots -5.5 (-110)Win
  • MikeVargasSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-110)Loss
  • BillywatersSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-110)Loss
  • MbcSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-110)Loss
  • BluedevilSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-110)Loss
  • RcSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-110)Loss
  • BrycetSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5 (-110)Loss
  • WarbuczSpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5 (-110)Loss
  • Tbone91Spread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5 (-110)Loss
  • Fisher49Spread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5 (-110)Loss
  • TgodfreySpread · Pittsburgh Steelers +5 (-110)Loss
  • Randy54Spread · New England Patriots -5 (-110)Win
  • 1489684734Spread · New England Patriots -5.5 (-110)Win