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  1. Home
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  3. Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
Sat 8:15 PM ET
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Buffalo Bills71401132
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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Betting Picks & Predictions

Game time: December 17, 2022 at 8:15 PM ET

Venue: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY

Article updated Dec 17, 9:54 AM EST

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

Miami is on the road playing Buffalo at the Highmark Stadium stadium on Saturday, 12/17/2022 @ 8:15pm EST. Buffalo -6.5 was the opening favorite and current line is Buffalo

Game outlook

Miami is on the road playing Buffalo at the Highmark Stadium stadium on Saturday, 12/17/2022 @ 8:15pm EST. Buffalo -6.5 was the opening favorite and current line is Buffalo -7.

Miami handed the Bills their first loss of the season, 21-19 in Miami on Sept. 25 as a four-point underdog, but Miami's offense has stalled in recent weeks and inclement weather could favor the Bills at home tonight. Buffalo had won seven straight head-to-head matchups before the loss in September, and Buffalo is 4-3-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Miami Betting

Those Dolphins are just one game behind the Bills in first place with the tiebreaker on their side if they win on Saturday. After losing to the 49ers 33-17 and the Chargers 23-17, Miami will play its third straight road game. They are now 3-4 straight up and 2-5 against the spread on the road.

The Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa averages 277.9 passing yards per game, but he struggled tremendously in Sunday's loss to the Chargers. Tua went 10 for 28 passing with one touchdown and rushed for 28 yards. The 35.7% completion rate was his worst in a game in which he threw at least five passes. Tua has thrown 22 touchdowns and five interceptions this season and is second in the NFL with 73.5 QBR, but he has put up his worst team performances in the last two weeks.

With a power ranking of 14, Miami is ranked #8 in offense (scoring an average of 24.92 per game), #26 in defense (allowing an average of 24.08 points to be scored against them per game) and are 8-5 (6-7 ATS) this season.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Buffalo Betting

In Week 3, Miami beat the Bills 21-19, but Buffalo completely dominated in several key areas to win the war. Despite the 497 yards to 212 yards, Buffalo outgained the Dolphins 31 to 15 in first downs, and 40:40 to 19:20 in possession time. Buffalo also went 11 for 18 on first downs, while the Dolphins were just 3 for 8. In the red zone, Buffalo scored just two touchdowns, while the Dolphins scored three touchdowns. Buffalo also committed one turnover and three penalties for 32 yards.

Having beaten the Browns, Lions, Patriots, and Jets, the Bills are on a four-game winning streak. Although the Bills beat the Jets 20-12 last week, they failed to cover the spread as a 10-point favorite in their first true home game since November 13. Despite getting outgained 309 to 232 in total yards and 19 to 14 in first downs, Buffalo still won, with the Jets losing with only two turnovers resulting in fumbles. During the game, Allen completed 16 for 27 for 147 yards with a touchdown passing and added 47 yards with another touchdown running.

Buffalo Bills has a power ranking of 4 and are #3 for offense (scoring an average of 27.75 per game), #4 for defense (giving up an average of 24.08 points per game) and 10-3 (6-6-1 ATS) overall. Miami went 2-1 (1-1-1 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against Buffalo.

Curated Picks & Predictions

Based on the current lines, Oddsmakers predict the score to be MIA 28.75, BUF 14.75.

60% of SportsJaw players predict Buffalo Bills to cover.

OddsShark 's prediction is Buffalo will win, cover the spread, and the total will go over.

54% picked Buffalo Bills on Covers.com

SportsJaw's ScoreCaster prediction: Dolphins 17 to Bills 36.

Staff Prediction

Weather forecast looks ominous tonight with winds 10-12 MPH and snowing throughout the game. Playing in the cold and snow won't be easy, but it will also affect the Buffalo offense. This is also more of a must-win for a Miami team that is spending the week hearing about the cold weather and the struggles of their quarterback. But Miami and Tua has looked really aweful the last couple of weeks on offense and so it's hard to fade the Bills here at home in conditions they are accustomed to playing in. But the weather could make this a low scoring game which favors taking the Dolphins and the points but the smartest money is on the UNDER 43.5 here in what should be a low scoring game due to weather and Miami's inability to move the ball.

Score prediction: Dolphins 10 to Bills 17

Written by SportsJaw Staff Categorized as NFL Predictions

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#MiamiDolphins#BuffaloBills

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Dolphins vs Bills archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Dolphins vs Bills matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Miami Dolphins+283 → +278Moved
  • Moneyline · Buffalo Bills-328 → -350Moved
  • Spread · Miami Dolphins+6.5 (-110) → +7 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Buffalo Bills-6.5 (-110) → -7 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over49 (-110) → 44.75 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under49 (-110) → 44.75 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Miami Dolphins
8-5 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Buffalo Bills
10-3 matchup record · 4-5-1 ATS · 2-8-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2022-12-17T14:54:27.000Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2022-09-25Buffalo Bills 19 · Miami Dolphins 21
  • 2021-10-31Miami Dolphins 11 · Buffalo Bills 26
  • 2021-09-19Buffalo Bills 35 · Miami Dolphins 0
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Buffalo Bills defeated Miami Dolphins 32-29

Buffalo Bills defeated Miami Dolphins 32-29 on December 17, 2022, a 3-point decision in the series. Buffalo Bills' strongest period was the 4th quarter, when it outscored its opponent 11-3. Against SportsJaw's recorded Miami Dolphins +7 (-110) spread, Miami Dolphins covered, while the 61 combined points finished over the recorded total of 44.75.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • FlyigglesflySpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • SfdanSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • SfdanTotal · Over 48.5 (-110)Win
  • RcSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • MackintoshSpread · Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110)Loss
  • JamescashiolaSpread · Miami Dolphins +6.5 (-110)Win
  • Hustle$Spread · Miami Dolphins +6.5 (-110)Win
  • RetweetSpread · Miami Dolphins +6.5 (-110)Win
  • DrfeelgoodSpread · Miami Dolphins +6.5 (-110)Win
  • DerekFisherSpread · Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110)Loss
  • RcollinsSpread · Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110)Loss
  • Roderick806Spread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • Josh720Spread · Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-110)Win
  • MoneymouthSpread · Buffalo Bills -7.5 (-110)Loss
  • MiamimikeSpread · Buffalo Bills -7.5 (-110)Loss
  • JackCohenSpread · Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-110)
Win
  • Mr_BiggsSpread · Buffalo Bills -7.5 (-110)Loss
  • JeffjacksonSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • DemarcusBryantSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • Josh720Total · Under 43.5 (-110)Loss
  • DouwannaSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • JohnnylikescashSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • CorMoneyline · Buffalo Bills -350Win
  • legenRandy23Total · Over 43.5 (-110)Win
  • legenRandy23Moneyline · Buffalo Bills -328Win
  • RcTotal · Under 43.5 (-110)Loss
  • DocthizzSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • JohnTharpSpread · Miami Dolphins +7 (-110)Win
  • CoversSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioTotal · Over 43.5 (-110)Win
  • OddssharkSpread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 43.5 (-110)Win
  • Jjaime9999Total · Over 44.5 (-110)Win
  • Jjaime9999Moneyline · Miami Dolphins +280Loss
  • Jjaime9999Spread · Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)Loss