New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Predictions October 4, 2026
The Buffalo Bills will beat the New England Patriots, with a projected score of Bills 27, Patriots 20. Buffalo’s fourth-ranked rushing offense offers a strong counter to New England’s second-ranked pass defense, while the Patriots have struggled to score. Neither Buffalo -6.5 (-115) nor the total of 48.5 (-110 each way) offers a convincing betting edge. The official recommendation is Pass.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills prediction and best bet
Buffalo has the stronger case to win this 2026 NFL matchup because its offense has offered more ways to generate points. Through three games, the Bills average 401.7 yards and an NFL-leading 33.7 points. New England averages 307.0 yards and 12.0 points. Buffalo’s rushing production gives it an alternative if the Patriots’ pass defense makes throwing difficult.
The best betting decision is Pass. New England’s defense has been substantially better than Buffalo’s, and the Bills committed five offensive turnovers in their latest victory. Those weaknesses matter when laying nearly a touchdown. They also complicate the total: stalled possessions can suppress scoring, while giveaways can create short fields for the opponent.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Kickoff: Sunday, October 4, 2026, at 1 p.m. ET.
Venue: Highmark Stadium.
Records: New England is 1-2; Buffalo is 3-0 following a 24-16 victory over the Chargers. This is Buffalo’s first AFC East game of 2026.
SportsJaw spread: New England +6.5 (-105); Buffalo -6.5 (-115).
SportsJaw moneyline: New England +250; Buffalo -300.
SportsJaw total: Over 48.5 (-110); Under 48.5 (-110). This is the teams’ first meeting of the season, with the return matchup scheduled for December 6 at Gillette Stadium.