Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions October 4, 2026
The Green Bay Packers will beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Packers 20, Buccaneers 16, in our forecast for Oct. 4. Tampa Bay’s switch to undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels is the strongest reason to favor Green Bay, although the Buccaneers’ run defense presents a serious obstacle. Neither Packers -4 (-109) nor the total of 39.5 (-110) offers a compelling wager. The official recommendation is Pass.
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction and best bet
Green Bay gets the pick in a close game, with low confidence and no official wager. Baker Mayfield’s thumb injury leaves Tampa Bay turning to Daniels for his first start. That transition tips the forecast toward the Packers, but their own offensive numbers make a comfortable victory difficult to project.
The clearest matchup advantage belongs to Tampa Bay’s run defense against Green Bay’s struggling rushing attack. The Packers also converted just 27.8% of their third downs through three games. Those weaknesses could keep the Buccaneers within reach even if their rookie quarterback struggles. A four-point projected margin lands exactly on the supplied spread, making Pass the choice on both sides.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Game: Green Bay at Tampa Bay, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, in the 2026 NFL season. Venue: Raymond James Stadium.
Records: Packers 1-2 following a 35-14 home loss to Atlanta; Buccaneers 0-3 following a 23-16 home loss to Minnesota.
Quarterback: Jalon Daniels will start for Tampa Bay in place of injured Baker Mayfield.
SportsJaw odds: Green Bay -4 (-109), Tampa Bay +4 (-111). Moneyline: Green Bay -193, Tampa Bay +165. Total: Over 39.5 (-110), Under 39.5 (-110).