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NFL PicksSun 4:25 PM ET
Detroit Lions logo
Detroit
Lions
2-1
versus
Arizona Cardinals logo
Arizona
Cardinals
1-2
NFL · DET at ARI

Your Picks on Lions vs Cardinals

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
Spread
Moneyline
Total

Detroit vs Arizona consensus picks

DET67%
33%ARI

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Predictions October 11, 2026

Game time: October 11, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET

Venue: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, AZ

Article updated Oct 4, 9:25 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Detroit Lions are projected to beat the Arizona Cardinals 28-24, with their efficient passing offense and productive pass rush providing the strongest matchup advantages. Arizona’s opportunity against Detroit’s vulnerable tight-end coverage makes a comfortable road win less certain. The supplied Lions -5.5 (-110) price is a Pass, as is the 51.5 total; the official betting recommendation is Pass.

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals prediction and best bet

Detroit is the pick to win this Week 5 matchup, but Arizona has enough of a matchup opening to make laying 5.5 points uncomfortable. Jared Goff’s interception-free first three games and Detroit’s pressure production favor the Lions. Their struggles defending tight ends give the Cardinals a plausible way to keep the margin close.

The best betting decision is Pass. Detroit’s early results make a persuasive case for the winner, yet the difference between winning and covering matters here. The statistical evidence covers the first three games, and the injury reports concern Week 4. Those limits temper the case for a Week 5 spread wager.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 1:25 p.m. local Arizona time, 4:25 p.m. Eastern, in Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season.

Venue: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona.

Broadcast: FOX.

Recent form: Detroit entered Week 4 at 2-1 following a 31-24 home victory over the New York Jets. Arizona scored 30 points in its September 27 loss at San Francisco.

SportsJaw odds: Detroit Lions -5.5 (-110), Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (-110). Moneyline: Detroit -245, Arizona +200. Total: Over 51.5 (-113), Under 51.5 (-108).

Detroit Lions outlook

Goff completed 77 of 109 passes for 802 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions through Detroit’s first three games. His 70.6% completion rate accompanied an offense that scored exactly 31 points in each game. That combination of accuracy and scoring consistency is the strongest reason to favor Detroit.

Jahmyr Gibbs contributed 307 rushing yards at 4.7 yards per carry, plus 18 receptions for 156 yards. His four rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns illustrate the multiple ways he contributed. Arizona must account for his receiving involvement as well as his carries, which could complicate its efforts to concentrate on Goff.

Detroit also recorded 12 sacks through three games. Aidan Hutchinson led with 3.5, while Alim McNeill, DJ Wonnum and Derrick Barnes each had two. In the October 2 report for Week 4, Ben Bartch was out with a foot injury, D.J. Reed was questionable with a rib injury, and Wonnum practiced fully Friday following a back issue. These were Week 4 designations, not confirmed absences against Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals outlook

Arizona’s passing offense produced only two completions of at least 20 yards through three games: gains of 27 yards to Trey McBride and 33 yards to Marvin Harrison Jr., both against the Chargers. More frequent explosive gains would ease the burden of sustaining drives against Detroit.

The September 27 performance at San Francisco offers a counterpoint to that concern. Arizona scored 30 points, and Jeremiyah Love rushed for 90 yards on 21 carries despite a longest run of eight yards. That game shows why limited explosive production should not automatically be treated as an inability to score.

Defensively, Arizona allowed nine passes of at least 20 yards and 11 runs of at least 10 yards through three games. Jordan Burch was its only player with a sack over that span. The October 2 Week 4 report listed Josh Sweat questionable with a groin issue and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson out with a back injury. Arizona elevated Cameron Robertson on October 3 as it prepared for Sweat’s uncertain Week 4 availability.

Key matchup factors

The most important contrast is pressure. Detroit ranked third with 73 pressures through three games, including 50 quarterback hurries and 23 quarterback hits. Against an Arizona offense short on long completions, that disruption could make sustained possession difficult. Arizona’s limited sack production, meanwhile, points toward a potentially more comfortable passing environment for Goff.

McBride supplies the strongest counterargument. Detroit allowed opposing tight ends 29 catches, 351 yards and six touchdowns through three games. That creates an attractive potential target area for Arizona, although those opponent totals should not be treated as McBride’s expected output.

As of October 4 at 13:14 UTC, SportsJaw’s blended spread consensus favored Detroit -5.5 (-110) at 67%, with a modeled equivalent count of 402 Detroit selections and 198 Arizona selections. These combined counts incorporate modeled sportsbook input and SportsJaw participation; they are not observed sportsbook ticket totals. The percentage measures selection support, not Detroit’s probability of covering.

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Detroit Lions -5.5 (-110) and Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (-110). Detroit’s offensive efficiency and pass rush justify favoring it outright. Its tight-end coverage weakness makes the extra requirement of a six-point victory a less comfortable proposition.

The projected four-point margin falls on Arizona’s side of the spread, but that modest cushion is too fragile for an official Cardinals wager. Arizona’s own defensive vulnerabilities could let Detroit pull away. Neither side offers a strong enough advantage at these prices.

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 51.5 (-113) and Under 51.5 (-108). Detroit’s early scoring consistency and Arizona’s 30-point outing at San Francisco give the Over a credible case. Arizona’s defensive concessions and Detroit’s tight-end coverage problems add to that possibility.

Detroit’s pressure and Arizona’s limited explosive passing offer reasons for restraint. The projected 52 points sit only half a point above the line, far too close to justify paying -113 for the Over. An Under wager would require greater conviction that those drive-disrupting factors will outweigh the scoring opportunities.

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals projected score

Game forecast: Detroit Lions 28, Arizona Cardinals 24. Detroit’s passing efficiency and defensive pressure earn the winner selection. Arizona’s best response is to exploit the tight-end matchup and sustain enough offense to keep the game close.

Confidence is medium for the winner forecast, reflecting an ordinary edge with a meaningful counterargument. The projected margin and total offer little separation from the supplied betting lines. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

DET28

ARI24

Projected winner Detroit LionsConfidenceSlight Lean — Arizona Cardinals
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Arizona Cardinals +5.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Detroit Lions -5.5 (-110) and Arizona Cardinals +5.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 51.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 51.5 (-113) and Under 51.5 (-108)

Sources

  • Arizona CardinalsKnow Before You Go: Week 5 vs. Detroit Lions
  • Detroit Lions5 things to watch: Lions at Panthers
  • Detroit LionsLions at Panthers: How to watch, listen and follow

SportsJaw Lions vs Cardinals game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Lions vs Cardinals matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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