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Cincinnati vs Kansas City

Sun Jan 29 6:30PM

Bengals vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

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Cincinnati is on the road playing Kansas City at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium stadium on Sunday, 1/29/2023 @ 6:30pm EST. The Cincinnati Bengals are one game away from a return trip to the Super Bowl, and for the second year in a row, it is the Kansas City Chiefsstanding in their way. This time the Bengals are not going in as plucky underdogs riding a hot playoff streak. Kansas City -1 was the opening favorite and current line is Cincinnati -0.5.

In the divisional round, the Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20, but it didn't come without consequence, as QB Patrick Mahomes sustained a high ankle sprain late in the first quarter. Despite playing through the injury, it's clear the 27-year-old signal caller is clearly not 100 percent.

The Bengals dominated Buffalo last weekend, 27-10, even with backups all over the offensive line. Running back Joe Mixon ran for a postseason-high 105 yards and two touchdowns.

Bengals vs Kansas City Who is Going to Win

A number of factors have contributed to bettors jumping on the Bengals early line in this game. For starters, the news of Patrick Mahomes reported grade 3 ankle spraing and being on crutches after the Jags game. Also because they have looked best team since starting the season 0-2 and have won 14 consecutive games since then. This includes winning 10 straight games, including a dominant performance against Buffalo last weekend. Since last season, they have won three consecutive games against the Chiefs.

A major factor is Patrick Mahomes' ankle status with the Chiefs. Despite returning to Saturday's game against Jacksonville for the second half, he did not look 100 percent and will continue to deal with a high ankle sprain until Sunday. But the good news for Chiefs bettors is Mahomes was spotted at a press conference on Wednesday walking without an air boot and seemingly without any limp. Chiefs' offense relies heavily on Mahomes ability to extend plays, and if he can't do that against the Bengals, it could be a problem. But during a press conference on Thursday, Mahomes said he plans to play.

While the Chiefs finished with the best record in the AFC, they were terrible against the spread this season. Kansas City finished 5-12-1 ATS this year including a woeful 1-7-1 in its last nine games at home. The team is 9-24-1 against the spread in its past 34 versus AFC teams and have failed to cover in five straight against an opponent with a winning record.

Cincinnati has also covered five of the last six meetings including three straight. Bet on the Bengals to win by at least three points.

Cincinnati Betting

With a power ranking of 2, Cincinnati is ranked #7 in offense (scoring an average of 26.00 per game), #7 in defense (allowing an average of 19.94 points to be scored against them per game) and are 14-4 (13-5 ATS) this season.

Kansas City Betting

Kansas City Chiefs has a power ranking of 3 and are #1 for offense (scoring an average of 29.06 per game), #15 for defense (giving up an average of 19.94 points per game) and 15-3 (7-11 ATS) overall. Cincinnati went 0-3 (0-3 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against Kansas City.

Curated Picks & Predictions

  • From the lines set by Sportsbooks, they predict the score to be CIN 23.25, KC 24.25.
  • The SportsJaw community predicts Cincinnati Bengals to cover (58%)
  • OddsShark predicts Kansas City will win, cover the spread, and the total will go over.
  • 69% picked Cincinnati Bengals on
  • Our ScoreCaster predicts Bengals 17 to Chiefs 32.

Kansas City vs Cincinnati Prediction

Cincinnati has covered five of the last six meetings including three straight. I assume Mahomes is playing and by all indications the high ankle sprain wasn't as bad as originally suggested. I predict this stingy Bengals defense will pressure Mahomes and do a good job of slow down Kelce. Take away Mahomes and Kelce and the Chiefs become pretty pedestrian. Kansas City and Cincinnati have comparable offenses, but I give the edge in this game to the Bengals nasty defense.

Chiefs vs. Bengals Over/Under: Under 46.5

Even with the total going over this projected line in five straight matchups, I'm on the under and here's why:

Cincinnati has gone under in nine of its last 10 playoff games including five straight, 26 of its past 39 road games and in 15 of its last 23 overall. For the Chiefs, they've gone under in six of their previous 7 games at home and in eight of their previous 11 after they won the game prior. Also I predict this Bengals defense is going to wreck havoc on Mahomes (especially if not 100%) and limit the Chiefs points.

Score prediction: Bengals 24 to Chiefs 17

Written by SportsJaw Staff
Categorized as NFL Predictions

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Current Odds[ - ]

Over 48.5
Under 48.5

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Power Rankings[ - ]

Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs

Last 10 Games Stats[ + ]

Cincinnati BengalsBengals

vs BUFW 27-10
412Off YDs
240Pass YDs
172Rush YDs
325Def YDs
262Pass Def
63Rush Def
vs BALW 24-17
234Off YDs
183Pass YDs
51Rush YDs
364Def YDs
209Pass Def
155Rush Def
vs BALW 27-16
257Off YDs
202Pass YDs
55Rush YDs
386Def YDs
276Pass Def
110Rush Def
vs NEW 22-18
442Off YDs
369Pass YDs
73Rush YDs
285Def YDs
224Pass Def
61Rush Def
vs TBW 34-23
237Off YDs
184Pass YDs
53Rush YDs
396Def YDs
304Pass Def
92Rush Def
vs CLEW 23-10
363Off YDs
227Pass YDs
136Rush YDs
344Def YDs
273Pass Def
71Rush Def
vs KCW 27-24
431Off YDs
279Pass YDs
152Rush YDs
349Def YDs
211Pass Def
138Rush Def
vs TENW 20-16
374Off YDs
266Pass YDs
108Rush YDs
344Def YDs
281Pass Def
63Rush Def
vs PITW 37-30
408Off YDs
346Pass YDs
62Rush YDs
351Def YDs
249Pass Def
102Rush Def
vs CARW 42-21
464Off YDs
223Pass YDs
241Rush YDs
228Def YDs
164Pass Def
64Rush Def

Kansas City ChiefsChiefs

vs JACW 27-20
362Off YDs
218Pass YDs
144Rush YDs
349Def YDs
205Pass Def
144Rush Def
vs LVW 31-13
349Off YDs
181Pass YDs
168Rush YDs
279Def YDs
180Pass Def
99Rush Def
vs DENW 27-24
374Off YDs
328Pass YDs
46Rush YDs
307Def YDs
190Pass Def
117Rush Def
vs SEAW 24-10
297Off YDs
220Pass YDs
77Rush YDs
333Def YDs
200Pass Def
133Rush Def
vs HOUW 30-24
502Off YDs
313Pass YDs
189Rush YDs
219Def YDs
125Pass Def
94Rush Def
vs DENW 34-28
431Off YDs
342Pass YDs
89Rush YDs
320Def YDs
214Pass Def
106Rush Def
vs CINL 24-27
349Off YDs
211Pass YDs
138Rush YDs
431Def YDs
279Pass Def
152Rush Def
vs LARW 26-10
437Off YDs
320Pass YDs
117Rush YDs
198Def YDs
82Pass Def
116Rush Def
vs LACW 30-27
485Off YDs
322Pass YDs
163Rush YDs
365Def YDs
250Pass Def
115Rush Def
vs JACW 27-17
486Off YDs
331Pass YDs
155Rush YDs
315Def YDs
240Pass Def
75Rush Def

Injuries[ - ]

Cincinnati BengalsBengals

  • TEClark Harris (IR, Biceps)
  • TLa'el Collins (IR, Knee)
  • WRTyler Boyd (Is doubtfult to return, Quad)
  • CBChidobe Awuzie (IR; is out for season, Knee)
  • TEHayden Hurst (Is probable Sunday vs Kansas City, Calf)
  • GAlex Cappa (Is OUT Sunday vs Kansas City, Ankle)
  • CBTre Flowers (Is probable Sunday vs Kansas City, Undisclosed)
  • TJonah Williams (Is OUT Sunday vs Kansas City, Knee)
  • TEDrew Sample (IR, Knee)
  • RBElijah Holyfield (IR, Leg)
  • STycen Anderson (IR, Hamstring)
  • CBen Brown (IR, Biceps)

Kansas City ChiefsChiefs

  • TETravis Kelce (Is probable Sunday vs Cincinnati, Back)
  • QBPatrick Mahomes (Is probable Sunday vs Cincinnati, Ankle)
  • WRJustin Watson (Is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Cincinnati, Illness)
  • WRMecole Hardman (Is "?" to return, Groin)
  • TEJody Fortson (Is probable Sunday vs Cincinnati, Elbow)
  • RBClyde Edwards-Helaire (Is probable Sunday vs Cincinnati, Ankle)
  • LBWillie Gay Jr. (Is "?" to return, Shoulder)
  • TLucas Niang (PUP, Knee)
  • SL'Jarius Sneed (Is OUT for remainder of game, Concussion)
  • DTTershawn Wharton (Is out for season, ACL)
  • WRKadarius Toney (Is "?" to return, Foot)
  • WRJustyn Ross (IR, Foot)

Infographics & Predictions[ - ]

Burrowhead stadium?
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CIN +114

Moneyline Pick





CIN +2 (-110)

Spread Pick






Get some positive money on Bengals ML

CIN +110

Moneyline Pick





Won 60% of last 10 NFL predictions
Cincinnati vs Kansas City prediction and stats

The Chiefs have a slightly better offense and the Chiefs have a significantly better defense. The Bengals won more games straight up and against the spread over their last 3 matchups. Adjusted score predictions based on power rankings and strength of schedule: Bengals 19 to Chiefs 30.


Bengals Injuries

  • TE Clark Harris IR, Biceps
  • T La'el Collins IR, Knee
  • WR Tyler Boyd Is doubtfult to return, Quad
  • CB Chidobe Awuzie IR; is out for season, Knee
  • TE Hayden Hurst Is probable Sunday vs Kansas City, Calf
  • G Alex Cappa Is OUT Sunday vs Kansas City, Ankle
  • CB Tre Flowers Is probable Sunday vs Kansas City, Undisclosed
  • T Jonah Williams Is OUT Sunday vs Kansas City, Knee
  • TE Drew Sample IR, Knee
  • RB Elijah Holyfield IR, Leg
  • S Tycen Anderson IR, Hamstring
  • C Ben Brown IR, Biceps

Chiefs Injuries

  • TE Travis Kelce Is probable Sunday vs Cincinnati, Back
  • QB Patrick Mahomes Is probable Sunday vs Cincinnati, Ankle
  • WR Justin Watson Is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Cincinnati, Illness
  • WR Mecole Hardman Is "?" to return, Groin
  • TE Jody Fortson Is probable Sunday vs Cincinnati, Elbow
  • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire Is probable Sunday vs Cincinnati, Ankle
  • LB Willie Gay Jr. Is "?" to return, Shoulder
  • T Lucas Niang PUP, Knee
  • S L'Jarius Sneed Is OUT for remainder of game, Concussion
  • DT Tershawn Wharton Is out for season, ACL
  • WR Kadarius Toney Is "?" to return, Foot
  • WR Justyn Ross IR, Foot

Won 60% of last 10 NFL predictions
Cincinnati vs Kansas City infographic

After crunching 8 data points, our relative predictions model has elected to not make a prediction on this game - view the Cincinnati vs Kansas City infographic for details.

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