Bengals vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

Cincinnati is on the road playing Kansas City at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium stadium on Sunday, 1/29/2023 @ 6:30pm EST. The Cincinnati Bengals are one game away from a return trip to the Super Bowl, and for the second year in a row, it is the Kansas City Chiefsstanding in their way. This time the Bengals are not going in as plucky underdogs riding a hot playoff streak. Kansas City -1 was the opening favorite and current line is Cincinnati -0.5.

In the divisional round, the Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20, but it didn't come without consequence, as QB Patrick Mahomes sustained a high ankle sprain late in the first quarter. Despite playing through the injury, it's clear the 27-year-old signal caller is clearly not 100 percent.

The Bengals dominated Buffalo last weekend, 27-10, even with backups all over the offensive line. Running back Joe Mixon ran for a postseason-high 105 yards and two touchdowns.

Bengals vs Kansas City Who is Going to Win

A number of factors have contributed to bettors jumping on the Bengals early line in this game. For starters, the news of Patrick Mahomes reported grade 3 ankle spraing and being on crutches after the Jags game. Also because they have looked best team since starting the season 0-2 and have won 14 consecutive games since then. This includes winning 10 straight games, including a dominant performance against Buffalo last weekend. Since last season, they have won three consecutive games against the Chiefs.

A major factor is Patrick Mahomes' ankle status with the Chiefs. Despite returning to Saturday's game against Jacksonville for the second half, he did not look 100 percent and will continue to deal with a high ankle sprain until Sunday. But the good news for Chiefs bettors is Mahomes was spotted at a press conference on Wednesday walking without an air boot and seemingly without any limp. Chiefs' offense relies heavily on Mahomes ability to extend plays, and if he can't do that against the Bengals, it could be a problem. But during a press conference on Thursday, Mahomes said he plans to play.

While the Chiefs finished with the best record in the AFC, they were terrible against the spread this season. Kansas City finished 5-12-1 ATS this year including a woeful 1-7-1 in its last nine games at home. The team is 9-24-1 against the spread in its past 34 versus AFC teams and have failed to cover in five straight against an opponent with a winning record.

Cincinnati has also covered five of the last six meetings including three straight. Bet on the Bengals to win by at least three points.

Cincinnati Betting

With a power ranking of 2, Cincinnati is ranked #7 in offense (scoring an average of 26.00 per game), #7 in defense (allowing an average of 19.94 points to be scored against them per game) and are 14-4 (13-5 ATS) this season.

Kansas City Betting

Kansas City Chiefs has a power ranking of 3 and are #1 for offense (scoring an average of 29.06 per game), #15 for defense (giving up an average of 19.94 points per game) and 15-3 (7-11 ATS) overall. Cincinnati went 0-3 (0-3 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against Kansas City.

Curated Picks & Predictions

• From the lines set by Sportsbooks, they predict the score to be CIN 23.25, KC 24.25.
• The SportsJaw community predicts Cincinnati Bengals to cover (58%)
• OddsShark predicts Kansas City will win, cover the spread, and the total will go over.
• 69% picked Cincinnati Bengals on Covers.com
• Our ScoreCaster predicts Bengals 17 to Chiefs 32.

Kansas City vs Cincinnati Prediction

Cincinnati has covered five of the last six meetings including three straight. I assume Mahomes is playing and by all indications the high ankle sprain wasn't as bad as originally suggested. I predict this stingy Bengals defense will pressure Mahomes and do a good job of slow down Kelce. Take away Mahomes and Kelce and the Chiefs become pretty pedestrian. Kansas City and Cincinnati have comparable offenses, but I give the edge in this game to the Bengals nasty defense.

Chiefs vs. Bengals Over/Under: Under 46.5

Even with the total going over this projected line in five straight matchups, I'm on the under and here's why:

Cincinnati has gone under in nine of its last 10 playoff games including five straight, 26 of its past 39 road games and in 15 of its last 23 overall. For the Chiefs, they've gone under in six of their previous 7 games at home and in eight of their previous 11 after they won the game prior. Also I predict this Bengals defense is going to wreck havoc on Mahomes (especially if not 100%) and limit the Chiefs points.

Score prediction: Bengals 24 to Chiefs 17

Written by SportsJaw Staff
Categorized as NFL Predictions