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  3. Texas Longhorns vs Baylor Bears
Sat 7:30 PM ET
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Baylor Bears logo
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Texas Longhorns72110038
Baylor Bears33006
NCAAF · Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears

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Texas and Baylor Set for Big 12 Conference Clash in Waco with Longhorns Favored by 14.5 Points

Game time: September 23, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: McLane Stadium — Waco, TX

Article updated Sep 17, 6:36 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

This is their first match up at McLane Stadium since 2017 when Texas earned a 38-7 win. Last year, the Longhorns trumped Baylor 38-27 when they were home favorites by 10

Game outlook

This is their first match up at McLane Stadium since 2017 when Texas earned a 38-7 win. Last year, the Longhorns trumped Baylor 38-27 when they were home favorites by 10 points. In Week 4 of the 2023 CFB season, Texas and Baylor will meet in a Big 12 Conference matchup in Waco, Texas and the total is set at 52.0.

Game Info

When: Saturday, 9/23/2023 @ 7:30pm EST

Where: McLane Stadium Stadium Longhorns vs Bears Betting Odds Moneyline: Longhorns -650 | Bears +485

Spread: Longhorns -14.5 (-110) | Bears +14.5 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Texas will win straight-up is 87%.

Texas Longhorns

The No. 3 Texas Longhorns defeated the Wyoming Cowboys 31-10 this past Saturday, despite not covering the team's 30.5-point spread. The teams were tied at 10-10 at the end of the third quarter and Texas yielded 291 total yards in return while giving up just 4.9 yards per pass. Sophomore running back Jonathon Brooks led the way for the Longhorns, with 21 carries for a staggering 164 yards. Also, Sophomore signal-caller Quinn Ewers completed 11 of his 21 passing attempts against Wyoming, throwing for 131 yards and a couple of touchdowns, and he also scored once on his own. The Longhorns have a power ranking of 22, are ranked 45 in offense (scoring an average of 35.50 per game), 45 in defense (allowing an average of 17.00 points to be scored against them per game) and are 3-0 (1-2 ATS) this season.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Baylor Bears Analysis

Baylor Bears entered Week 3 riding a six-game losing streak. Last Saturday, Baylor beat Long Island University Sharks 30-7 but could not cover a 45-point spread. Baylor dominated LIU from start to finish and outgaining the Sharks 391-183 in total yards. Redshirt junior QB Blake Shapen has missed two straight games due to an MCL injury. Baylor has power ranking of 73 and ranked #102 for offense and #104 for defense . Texas have had a 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS) performance in last 3 matchups against Baylor.

Baylor Must Rely on Run Game For Success Against Texas as Longhorns Aim to Beat 14.5-Point Spread

Sawyer Robertson has yet to have an impressive performance, evidenced by Baylor’s 20-13 loss to Utah in Week 2 where Robertson was intercepted twice. To rise to the challenge, Baylor must rely on their ground game as the Longhorns have only surrendered 96.3 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Considering the Bears’ 1-3-1 ATS record in their last five home showings and the Longhorns’ 3-3 ATS record in their last six games overall, I am taking the Longhorns to beat the 14.5-point spread. The Longhorns have achieved success on the road in their past three games and their defensive line will be instrumental in continuing this success.

Written by Mikehuff Published on 09/20/2023 Category: NCAAF Picks

About the Author: My Philosophy of "picking our battles and not the board" is what consistently gives me profit year over year. Join me this season for NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB hoops.

SportsJawGame Predictions
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Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
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#TexasLonghorns#BaylorBears

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Longhorns vs Bears archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Longhorns vs Bears matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Texas Longhorns-625 → -875Moved
  • Moneyline · Baylor Bears+440 → +620Moved
  • Spread · Texas Longhorns-14.5 (-110) → -17.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Baylor Bears+14.5 (-110) → +17.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over51.75 (-110) → 48.75 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under51.75 (-110) → 48.75 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Texas Longhorns
3-0 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Baylor Bears
0-2 matchup record · 4-5-1 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-09-17T22:36:43.201Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Baylor Bears entered Week 3 riding a six-game losing streak. Last Saturday, Baylor beat Long Island University Sharks 30-7 but could not cover a 45-point spread. Baylor dominated LIU from start to finish and outgaining the Sharks 391-183 in total yards. Redshirt junior QB Blake Shapen has missed two straight games due to an MCL injury. Baylor has power ranking of 73 and ranked #102 for offense and #104 for defense . Texas have had a 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS) performance in last 3 matchups against Baylor.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2022-11-25Baylor Bears 27 · Texas Longhorns 38
  • 2021-10-30Texas Longhorns 24 · Baylor Bears 31
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Texas Longhorns defeated Baylor Bears 38-6

Texas Longhorns defeated Baylor Bears 38-6 on September 23, 2023, a 32-point decision in the series. Texas Longhorns' strongest period was the 2nd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 21-3. Against SportsJaw's recorded Texas Longhorns -17.5 (-110) spread, Texas Longhorns covered, while the 44 combined points finished under the recorded total of 48.75.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • JohnnywalkerTotal · Over 51.75 (-110)Loss
  • MtgoldsteinTotal · Under 51.5 (-110)Win
  • CoolioSpread · Baylor Bears +17 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioTotal · Over 48.5 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkSpread · Baylor Bears +17 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 48.5 (-110)Loss
  • CoversSpread · Texas Longhorns -17 (-110)Win