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  3. SMU Mustangs vs TCU Horned Frogs
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NCAAF · SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs

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SMU vs TCU: Mustangs Poised for Upset Win as Favorites Over Horned Frogs

Game time: September 23, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET

Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, TX

Article updated Sep 17, 6:36 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

The SMU Mustangs (2-1, 0-0 American) and TCU Horned Frogs (2-1, 1-0 Big 12) are set to face off Saturday afternoon at Amon G. Carter Stadium in the Mustangs' first road game

Game outlook

The SMU Mustangs (2-1, 0-0 American) and TCU Horned Frogs (2-1, 1-0 Big 12) are set to face off Saturday afternoon at Amon G. Carter Stadium in the Mustangs' first road game of the season. The Horned Frogs have an 8-2 record in the past 10 games against SMU and most recently won 36-13 as seven-point favorites over the Houston Cougars. The Mustangs are also coming off a win, 69-0 against Prairie View as 42-point favorites.

Game Info

When: Saturday, 9/23/2023 @ 12:00pm EST

Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium Stadium Mustangs vs Horned Frogs Betting Odds Moneyline: Mustangs +205 | Horned Frogs -245

Spread: Mustangs +6.5 (-110) | Horned Frogs -6.5 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 63.5 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that TCU will win straight-up is 71%.

SMU Mustangs

The Mustangs won their last game over the Panthers, and look to keep the momentum with a win over the Horned Frogs. SMU is averaging 37.3 points per game, throwing for 295.7 yards and rushing for 167.7 yards per game. Preston Stone has 798 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions. LJ Johnson Jr. leads the team with 27 carries for 153 yards and one touchdown, while Jake Bailey leads the team with 13 catches for 136 yards. The defense is giving up 14 points per game and will need another solid effort to get the win. SMU is ranked 96 in offense, 60 in defense, and have a record of 1-1.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

TCU Horned Frogs Analysis

TCU: 2-1 (1-2 ATS) overall Power ranking of 36 #22 for offense (averaging 41.50 points per game) #83 for defense (giving up an average of 25.50 points per game) Averaging 302 yards passing and 213.7 yards rushing per game Quarterback Chandler Morris: 68% completion for 856 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions; 146 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns Emani Bailey: 56 carries for 357 yards and 1 touchdown JP Richardson: 13 catches for 147 yards Gave up 13 points in last game SMU: 1-2 (1-2 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against TCU

Mustangs Riding High on Stellar Offense and Strong Defense to Contain TCU's 127th Ranked Pass Defense

The Mustangs have been solid offensively, averaging 35+ pts/gm. They excel in both passing and running, making them a hard team to stop. Meanwhile, TCU has yet to face a strong defensive team, and their pass defense ranks 127th in the country. With the Mustangs boasting the top 45 defense against both pass and run, they will be able to contain TCU's offense and cover the spread.

Written by Jamescashiola Published on 09/21/2023 Category: NCAAF Picks

About the Author: Poker player and sports bettor. Cut my teeth working at Oddsboard.com writing picks content for a couple of old codgers. I've been betting on sports for over 10 years and last couple years I've won more than I've lost. NFL & College football are my jam.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#SMUMustangs#TCUHornedFrogs

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Mustangs vs Horned Frogs archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Mustangs vs Horned Frogs matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · SMU Mustangs+188 → +200Moved
  • Moneyline · TCU Horned Frogs-230 → -250Moved
  • Spread · SMU Mustangs+6.5 (-110) → +6.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Spread · TCU Horned Frogs-6.5 (-110) → -6.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Over64.5 (-110) → 62.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under64.5 (-110) → 62.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

SMU Mustangs
1-1 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
TCU Horned Frogs
1-1 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-09-17T22:36:15.561Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2022-09-24TCU Horned Frogs 42 · SMU Mustangs 34
  • 2021-09-25SMU Mustangs 42 · TCU Horned Frogs 34
Final result

Matchup pick recap

TCU Horned Frogs defeated SMU Mustangs 34-17

TCU Horned Frogs defeated SMU Mustangs 34-17 on September 23, 2023, a 17-point decision in the series. TCU Horned Frogs' strongest period was the 3rd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 13-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded SMU Mustangs +6.5 (-110) spread, TCU Horned Frogs covered, while the 51 combined points finished under the recorded total of 62.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • Lockpicker69Spread · SMU Mustangs +6.5 (-110)Loss
  • MtgoldsteinSpread · SMU Mustangs +6 (-110)Loss
  • Hustle$Spread · SMU Mustangs +6 (-110)Loss
  • CoversSpread · TCU Horned Frogs -7 (-110)Win
  • CoolioSpread · SMU Mustangs +7 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioTotal · Over 63.5 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkSpread · SMU Mustangs +7 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 63.5 (-110)Loss