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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. New Mexico St. Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos
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New Mexico St. Aggies0173727
New Mexico Lobos370717
NCAAF · New Mexico St. Aggies at New Mexico Lobos

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New Mexico Rivalry to Reach Boiling Point as Lobos Look to Upset Aggies with Home Field Advantage

Game time: September 16, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: University Stadium (NM) — Albuquerque, NM

Article updated Sep 10, 6:36 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

The game total is set at 53 in what will be the 113th Rio Grande Rivalry meeting. New Mexico St. is predicted to win 5 games this season, while New Mexico is set to win 3.5.

Game outlook

The game total is set at 53 in what will be the 113th Rio Grande Rivalry meeting. New Mexico St. is predicted to win 5 games this season, while New Mexico is set to win 3.5. Last season, New Mexico St. was 7-6 and 2-4 on the road, while New Mexico was 2-10 with a 2-4 home record. New Mexico WR is questionable with an undisclosed ailment for this rivalry match.

Game Info

When: Saturday, 9/16/2023 @ 8:00pm EST

Where: University Stadium Stadium Aggies vs Lobos Betting Odds Moneyline: Aggies +105 | Lobos -125

Spread: Aggies +1.5 (-110) | Lobos -1.5 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 52.5 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that New Mexico St. will win straight-up is 51%.

New Mexico St. Aggies

New Mexico State: - 0-2 against FBS teams in 2023, with an average score of 13.5 points - Ranked 29th in offense, scoring 483.3 total yards and 35.0 points per game - Ranked 97th in defense, allowing 398.3 total yards and 31.7 points per game - Passing game needs to show more progress (169.2 yards per game in 2022) - Ground game appears to be just as good as last season when NMSU averaged 4.6 yards per carry - Defense allowed 67 points and 915 total yards of offense in losses to UMass and Liberty, as well as surrendering 248 passing yards to FCS Western Illinois - Power ranking of 102, 1-2 (1-2 ATS) this season

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

New Mexico Lobos Analysis

• New Mexico Lobos have a power ranking of 131 • Ranked #121 for offense (scoring an average of 10.00 per game) • Ranked #125 for defense (giving up an average of 52.00 points per game) • 1-1 (1-1 ATS) overall • Record in the last 3 matchups vs New Mexico St.: 2-1 (0-3 ATS)

UNM Lobos Poised to Cover Game Against FBS Opponent with Momentum and Home Field Advantage

New Mexico State has allowed their FBS opponents to move the ball. Last year, UMass, one such opponent, averaged 116 passing yards and 3.4 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Lobos offense has momentum, putting up nearly 600 yards last week. Taking into account Burkhart's 72.8 QBR and the pressure Pavia's 46.1 QBR puts on the Aggies, along with home-field advantage, UNM is likely to cover Saturday's game.

Written by Bjenkins Published on 09/14/2023 Category: NCAAF Picks

About the Author: Benny Jenkins is the most consistent handicapper across all sports that the industry has to offer. Consistently beating the books for the last 10 years.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#NewMexicoStAggies#NewMexicoLobos

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Aggies vs Lobos archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Aggies vs Lobos matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · New Mexico St. Aggies+102 → +125Moved
  • Moneyline · New Mexico Lobos-122 → -145Moved
  • Spread · New Mexico St. Aggies-1 (-110) → +2.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · New Mexico Lobos+1 (-110) → -2.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over50.75 (-110) → 52 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under50.75 (-110) → 52 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

New Mexico St. Aggies
0-1 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
New Mexico Lobos
0-1 matchup record · 1-9-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-09-10T22:36:34.137Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The game total is set at 53 in what will be the 113th Rio Grande Rivalry meeting. New Mexico St. is predicted to win 5 games this season, while New Mexico is set to win 3.5. Last season, New Mexico St. was 7-6 and 2-4 on the road, while New Mexico was 2-10 with a 2-4 home record. New Mexico WR is questionable with an undisclosed ailment for this rivalry match.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2022-10-15New Mexico Lobos 9 · New Mexico St. Aggies 21
  • 2021-09-11New Mexico St. Aggies 25 · New Mexico Lobos 34
Final result

Matchup pick recap

New Mexico St. Aggies defeated New Mexico Lobos 27-17

New Mexico St. Aggies defeated New Mexico Lobos 27-17 on September 16, 2023, a 10-point decision in the series. New Mexico St. Aggies' strongest period was the 2nd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 17-7. Against SportsJaw's recorded New Mexico St. Aggies +2.5 (-110) spread, New Mexico St. Aggies covered, while the 44 combined points finished under the recorded total of 52.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • MaddogSpread · New Mexico St. Aggies -1 (-110)Win
  • Mickey619Spread · New Mexico Lobos +1 (-110)Loss
  • HopkinspicksSpread · New Mexico St. Aggies +1.5 (-110)Win
  • Josh720Spread · New Mexico St. Aggies +1.5 (-110)Win
  • GustavosintoSpread · New Mexico Lobos -1.5 (-110)Loss
  • 1118240754Spread · New Mexico Lobos -1 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Under 52 (-110)Win
  • JohnTharpTotal · Over 52 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioSpread · New Mexico St. Aggies +3 (-110)Win
  • CoolioTotal · Under 52 (-110)Win
  • OddssharkSpread · New Mexico St. Aggies +3 (-110)Win
  • CoversSpread · New Mexico Lobos -3 (-110)Loss