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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sat 3:00 PM ET
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks logo
Louisiana-Monroe
Warhawks
1-7
versus
Arkansas State Red Wolves logo
Arkansas State
Red Wolves
4-4
NCAAF · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

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Louisiana-Monroe vs Arkansas State consensus picks

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks56%
44%Arkansas State Red Wolves
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Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction, odds and best bet

Game time: November 7, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET

Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium — Jonesboro, AR

Article updated Nov 4, 1:44 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Arkansas State will beat Louisiana-Monroe, with a projected score of Arkansas State 33, Louisiana-Monroe 20. ULM’s 1-7 record and its latest loss provide the strongest factual reason to favor the Red Wolves, while Dimers also projects a home win. Neither Arkansas State -14.5 nor the 53.5 total offers a convincing betting edge, making the official SportsJaw recommendation Pass.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction and best bet

Arkansas State is the straight-up selection for this 2026 college football matchup, but confidence is low. Louisiana-Monroe enters after a 35-21 loss to Southern Miss, and its one win through eight games makes an upset a difficult starting point. Dimers separately favors Arkansas State, projecting a 33-19 victory.

Our forecast is Arkansas State 33, Louisiana-Monroe 20. That would give the Warhawks a spread cover and put the game below 53.5, but both outcomes sit close to the supplied lines. The official best bet is Pass: choosing a likely winner is easier here than finding a price worth backing.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, at 2 p.m. CT, according to Louisiana-Monroe’s official Oct. 31 recap. Covers lists the equivalent 3 p.m. ET kickoff.

Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium. Louisiana-Monroe visits Arkansas State.

Louisiana-Monroe record: 1-7 overall and 1-3 in Sun Belt play following the Southern Miss loss.

SportsJaw odds: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +14.5 (-108); Arkansas State Red Wolves -14.5 (-110). Moneyline: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +496; Arkansas State Red Wolves -673. Total: Over 53 (-110); Under 53 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Availability: Kickoff Status reported on Nov. 3 at 6:07 p.m. PT that the official Sun Belt availability report had not been posted. Its notes on ULM’s J. Wright and M. Lenard were unofficial questionable listings.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks outlook

Aidan Armenta gave the Warhawks something to build on against Southern Miss. The quarterback completed 19 of 34 passes for 202 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. According to ULM’s official recap, it was his third 200-yard passing performance of 2026. For this forecast, that is a reason to give Louisiana-Monroe a chance to remain competitive.

Don Chaney led ULM with 54 rushing yards on 10 carries. Those individual numbers do not describe the entire rushing attack, so they should not become a blanket judgment about offensive balance. The more useful takeaway is that both Armenta and Chaney contributed in a game the Warhawks still lost by 14.

Noah Flemmings recorded 10 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and a pass breakup. His production is a positive individual reference point, although it offers no assurance that ULM can contain Arkansas State. The unofficial availability notes also warrant restraint: neither player should be treated as a confirmed absence.

Arkansas State Red Wolves outlook

The clearest Arkansas State signal comes from the price and an outside forecast. SportsJaw lists the Red Wolves at -690 to win, while Dimers assigns them an 86.2% win probability. That percentage belongs to Dimers’ model; it is neither SportsJaw’s confidence rating nor a community voting share.

The Arkansas State case is stronger for winning than for winning comfortably enough to cover. Dimers projects a 14-point margin, which falls short of the supplied -14.5 spread. Its favorable win forecast therefore should not be read as an endorsement of laying the points.

Without current Arkansas State performance statistics or confirmed personnel details, there is no firm basis for identifying a particular Red Wolves unit as the decisive advantage. The editorial forecast favors the home team while keeping that limitation reflected in low confidence.

Key matchup factors

The central question is how much separation Arkansas State creates. ULM’s latest passing performance gives the underdog a plausible route to scoring enough to stay within the spread. Its latest defeat also shows why a productive quarterback outing alone is insufficient reason to predict an upset.

As of Nov. 4 at 6:29 a.m. UTC, SportsJaw’s blended spread consensus favored Louisiana-Monroe +14.5 (-110) at 55%. The blended total consensus favored Under 53.5 (-110) at 62%, represented by 372 Under selections in a modeled equivalent sample of 600. These are estimated consensus selections, not observed sportsbook tickets or a count of SportsJaw members.

The stronger Under preference measures agreement, not the probability that the wager wins. Likewise, the spread consensus and Dimers’ narrow preference for ULM covering can coexist with an Arkansas State victory forecast.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Louisiana-Monroe +14.5 (-110) and Arkansas State -14.5 (-110). Our 13-point projected margin favors a ULM cover, but the cushion is small.

Dimers lists a 50.5% model/market probability for ULM +14.5 and 49.5% for Arkansas State -14.5. That is essentially an even split, despite its much stronger Arkansas State win projection. The 55% blended consensus adds an underdog preference, but neither reading makes ULM an automatic bet at -110.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 53.5 (-108) and Under 53.5 (-110). Our projected 53 points lands only half a point below the line, leaving too little room for a firm Under selection.

Dimers projects 52 combined points, but displays a different total of 52.5. SportsJaw’s betting evaluation remains at 53.5. The outside score forecast and 62% blended Under preference point in the same direction, yet they do not supply independent evidence of a dependable scoring edge.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Arkansas State 33, Louisiana-Monroe 20. ULM’s record and recent defeat favor the Red Wolves, with Dimers providing a separate supporting opinion. Armenta’s interception-free, two-touchdown outing is the strongest counterargument to expecting an easy favorite cover.

Confidence is low because the case lacks detailed current Arkansas State performance evidence. Arkansas State is the projected winner; both the spread and total are passes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Warhawks20

Red Wolves33

Projected winner Arkansas State Red WolvesConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +14.5 (-110) and Arkansas State Red Wolves -14.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • University of Louisiana Monroe AthleticsPrevious-game context: Warhawk Comeback Comes Up Short vs. Golden Eagles
  • DimersLouisiana-Monroe vs. Arkansas State Week 10 Prediction, Picks & Odds [11/7/2026]
  • CoversLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Odds & Betting Lines For November 07, 2026 - NCAAF
#LouisianaMonroeWarhawks#ArkansasStateRedWolves

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Warhawks vs Red Wolves game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Warhawks vs Red Wolves matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks+478 → +496Moved
  • Moneyline · Arkansas State Red Wolves-680 → -673Moved
  • Spread · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks+14.5 (-110) → +14.5 (-108)Moved
  • Spread · Arkansas State Red Wolves-14.5 (-110) → -14.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Over52.5 (-110) → 53 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under52.5 (-110) → 53 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
1-7 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Arkansas State Red Wolves
4-4 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-03T18:39:06.257Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Availability: Kickoff Status reported on Nov. 3 at 6:07 p.m. PT that the official Sun Belt availability report had not been posted. Its notes on ULM’s J. Wright and M. Lenard were unofficial questionable listings.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-09-27Arkansas State Red Wolves 16 · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 28
  • 2024-11-23Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 21 · Arkansas State Red Wolves 28
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