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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. San Jose St. Spartans vs Air Force Falcons
Sat 7:00 PM ET
San Jose St. Spartans logo
San Jose St.
Spartans
5-5
versus
Air Force Falcons logo
Air Force
Falcons
7-2
NCAAF · San Jose St. Spartans at Air Force Falcons

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San Jose St. vs Air Force consensus picks

San Jose St. Spartans44%
56%Air Force Falcons
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San Jose State vs Air Force Prediction, Odds and Best Bet for Nov. 14, 2026

Game time: November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Falcon Stadium — USAF Academy, CO

Article updated Nov 9, 1:20 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Air Force is our projected winner over San Jose State, 27-20, with its 260-yard rushing performance at Army providing the strongest reason to favor the Falcons. San Jose State’s productive passing game against Northern Illinois offers a credible response. Neither San Jose State +11.5 (-110) nor the 47.5 total presents a strong enough betting case, so the official recommendation is Pass.

San Jose St. Spartans vs Air Force Falcons prediction and best bet

Air Force gets the pick because its latest rushing performance offers a plausible foundation for another win. Running successfully would let the Falcons build drives without relying on repeated passing conversions. That is the central assumption behind our forecast, rather than a verified advantage against this particular defense.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. San Jose State showed enough offensive production and defensive disruption in its latest win to make laying 11.5 points uncomfortable. Taking those points is tempting, but one performance against Northern Illinois is too narrow a basis for an official wager against Air Force.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: San Jose State visits Air Force on Saturday, November 14, 2026, in college football. Both teams’ official recaps identify this as their next matchup.

Time: 5 p.m. Mountain Time, according to Air Force’s November 7 recap.

Venue: Falcon Stadium.

Broadcast: CBS Sports Network.

SportsJaw odds: San Jose St. Spartans +11.5 (-110); Air Force Falcons -11.5 (-110). Moneyline: San Jose St. Spartans +349; Air Force Falcons -458. Total: Over 47.5 (-110); Under 47.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Record: San Jose State enters 5-5 overall and 3-3 in Mountain West play.

San Jose St. Spartans outlook

San Jose State’s official recap describes a 30-19 victory over Northern Illinois on November 7. Daniel Rolovich completed 16 of 27 passes for 231 yards and one touchdown in his third career start. That gives the Spartans a recent example of productive quarterback play, although it is not enough to establish a sustained improvement.

Dominique McKenzie supplied 71 receiving yards on two catches, including a 29-yard touchdown. Viliami Teu added two rushing touchdowns and 42 rushing yards. Those contributions give the forecast a reason to include a meaningful San Jose State scoring response.

The defense recorded five sacks and forced two turnovers. Dylan Lee contributed an interception and 10 tackles. Creating similarly disruptive moments would help the Spartans, but sacks against Northern Illinois are not a direct measure of how well they will defend Air Force’s rushing game.

Air Force Falcons outlook

Air Force’s official recap reports a 24-21 road victory over Army on November 7 that secured the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. The Falcons out-rushed Army 260 yards to 182, with Kemper Hodges accounting for 119 yards on 17 carries.

Backup quarterback Evan Medders also contributed two touchdowns: a four-yard scoring run and the decisive 24-yard touchdown pass to tight end Simon Kibbee. The production came from more than one quarterback, an important detail when assessing that victory.

Those results support choosing Air Force, but a three-point win is not evidence that the Falcons are ready to separate by double digits. The quarterback contributions also should not be treated as confirmation of this week’s starting assignment or workload.

Key matchup factors

The decisive question is whether Air Force can reproduce its rushing success against a different opponent. San Jose State’s recent defensive impact matters, but pressure on a passer and stopping repeated rushing attempts are different assignments. Our forecast gives the Falcons a slight advantage without assuming that last week’s yardage will carry over.

College Football Now’s November 8 forecast picks Air Force 28-20. Its analysts favor the Falcons’ rushing approach, home setting and potential to limit possessions. That is another analyst’s interpretation, not independent proof of a pace advantage.

The same preview flags quarterback rotation and health, San Jose State’s defensive-front availability and weather for further updates. Those are unresolved considerations, not confirmed injuries or a weather forecast. They reinforce the low confidence attached to our pick.

San Jose St. Spartans vs Air Force Falcons spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on San Jose State +11.5 (-110) and Air Force -11.5 (-110). Our seven-point forecast falls on the Spartans’ side of the spread, but a projected score alone is not enough to justify a wager.

College Football Now’s eight-point projected margin points in the same direction. Agreement between two forecasts still leaves the underlying matchup questions open. San Jose State’s recent success makes the points appealing; uncertainty about its response to Air Force’s ground game keeps that appeal from becoming an official bet.

San Jose St. Spartans vs Air Force Falcons total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 47.5 (-110) and Under 47.5 (-110). Our projection totals 47 points, only half a point below the line. College Football Now’s forecast totals 48, placing its estimate just above it.

That small difference is a useful reminder of how fragile either direction would be. Successful rushing could sustain scoring drives or consume time between scores. San Jose State’s passing production adds another variable. There is no compelling reason here to pay -110 on either outcome.

San Jose St. Spartans vs Air Force Falcons Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Air Force 27, San Jose State 20. Confidence is low. The Falcons’ recent rushing output earns them the selection, while Rolovich’s productive outing and the Spartans’ defensive disruption form the strongest counterargument.

The forecast anticipates an Air Force win with San Jose State remaining competitive. It does not establish betting value at the supplied spread or total. Both markets are passes, and the single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Spartans20

Falcons27

Projected winner Air Force FalconsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on San Jose State Spartans +11.5 (-110) and Air Force Falcons -11.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 47.5 (-110) and Under 47.5 (-110)

Sources

  • Air Force Academy AthleticsPrevious-game context: Air Force Earns CIC Trophy With 24-21 Win At Army
  • SJSU AthleticsPrevious-game context: Spartans Surge Past NIU, Presented by Webcor
  • College Football NowSaturday College Football Picks: November 14, 2026
#SanJoseStSpartans#AirForceFalcons

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Spartans vs Falcons game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Spartans vs Falcons matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · San Jose St. Spartans+357 → +349Moved
  • Moneyline · Air Force Falcons-473 → -458Moved
  • Spread · San Jose St. Spartans+11.5 (-110) → +11.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Spread · Air Force Falcons-11.5 (-110) → -11.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Over47.5 (-110) → 47.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Under47.5 (-110) → 47.5 (-110)Unchanged

ATS and O/U trends

San Jose St. Spartans
5-5 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 1-9-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Air Force Falcons
7-2 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-09T06:20:39.162Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The same preview flags quarterback rotation and health, San Jose State’s defensive-front availability and weather for further updates. Those are unresolved considerations, not confirmed injuries or a weather forecast. They reinforce the low confidence attached to our pick.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-11-08Air Force Falcons 26 · San Jose St. Spartans 16
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