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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames
Sat 3:30 PM ET
Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders logo
Middle Tenn. St.
Blue Raiders
5-4
versus
Liberty Flames logo
Liberty
Flames
8-1
NCAAF · Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders at Liberty Flames

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Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames prediction, odds and projected score for Nov. 14

Game time: November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Williams Stadium (VA) — Lynchburg, VA

Article updated Nov 9, 12:54 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Liberty is our projected winner over Middle Tennessee, 38-20, with its eight-game winning streak and recent defensive performance giving the Flames the stronger case. Middle Tennessee’s productive outing against Western Kentucky makes the size of the margin less certain. At Liberty -21.5 (-110) and a total of 53.5 (-110), neither market offers a sufficiently convincing wager. The official recommendation is Pass.

Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames prediction and best bet

Liberty should win this Nov. 14, 2026 college football matchup, but the spread deserves more caution than the winner selection. The Flames enter at 8-1 after beating New Mexico State 30-14. Middle Tennessee’s 51-42 victory over Western Kentucky showed scoring potential alongside defensive vulnerability.

Our forecast is Liberty 38, Middle Tennessee 20. That favors the Blue Raiders against the spread on paper, but one strong offensive outing is too thin a foundation for an official underdog wager. Pass is the best betting decision at the supplied prices.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026. College Football Charts lists kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Venue: Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia.

Broadcast: CBSSN.

Records: Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders 5-4; Liberty Flames 8-1.

SportsJaw moneyline: Middle Tennessee +1,000; Liberty -1,800.

SportsJaw odds: Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders +21.5 (-105); Liberty Flames -21.5 (-111). Moneyline: Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders +950; Liberty Flames -1,700. Total: Over 53.5 (-110); Under 53.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders outlook

Middle Tennessee’s Nov. 7 win featured production through both the passing and running games. The Blue Raiders gained 513 yards, including 312 passing and 201 rushing, according to the university’s game recap. Roman Gagliano threw a career-high four touchdown passes without an interception.

Antonio Martin Jr. rushed for 125 yards and a 75-yard touchdown, recording his fifth 100-yard game of 2026. Ziyon Butler set career highs with six receptions and 129 yards, including a 65-yard touchdown catch. Those long scoring plays offer a plausible route to keeping this matchup competitive.

The defensive result tempers that optimism. Western Kentucky finished with 497 yards and 42 points. Middle Tennessee won despite allowing substantial production, so projecting another productive offensive afternoon still leaves room for Liberty to build a comfortable lead.

Liberty Flames outlook

Liberty’s Nov. 7 victory at New Mexico State gained separation late. The Flames produced 159 of their 399 yards in the fourth quarter and scored two touchdowns in that period, according to Liberty’s recap. That finish matters when considering whether they can extend a lead.

Deshawn Purdie completed 19 of 28 passes for 252 yards and a touchdown. Makai Jackson contributed six catches for a team-high 76 yards and a score. Kam Davis added 63 rushing yards on 15 carries and his team-leading eighth rushing touchdown.

Defensively, Liberty forced a season-best three turnovers and held James Jones to 51 rushing yards on 15 carries. Those results strengthen the winner forecast, although another three-turnover performance should not be treated as an expectation.

Key matchup factors

College Football Charts takes a stronger position on Liberty’s margin, projecting a 38-12 victory. The analyst cites Liberty’s third-place EPA-per-rush ranking against Middle Tennessee’s 130th-place ranking in EPA per rush allowed. That is its stated rationale for the pick, rather than an independently confirmed foundation for our forecast.

The same source assigns Liberty a 96% SP+ win probability and a 97% PRIME win probability. These are separate model estimates of winning outright, not probabilities of covering -21.5. Our projection gives Middle Tennessee more scoring credit following its Western Kentucky performance.

As of Nov. 9 at 05:48 UTC, the combined consensus favors Liberty -21.5 (-110) at 54%. Its modeled equivalent sample contains 324 Liberty selections and 276 Middle Tennessee selections, totaling 600; these are estimates, not observed betting tickets. The snapshot shows a five-percentage-point shift toward Middle Tennessee since Nov. 8. The modest Liberty majority is context, not proof of betting value.

Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames spread prediction

Pass on Middle Tennessee +21.5 (-110) and Liberty -21.5 (-110). Our projected 18-point margin falls inside the underdog’s allowance, but the difference is small enough to be vulnerable to a turnover or one additional scoring possession.

College Football Charts’ 26-point projected margin points the other way. Middle Tennessee’s recent offensive production makes taking the points tempting, while its defensive showing leaves a substantial Liberty cover plausible. Neither side earns an official recommendation.

Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames total prediction

Pass on Over 53.5 (-110) and Under 53.5 (-110). Our forecast totals 58 points, creating a directional preference toward the Over, but that preference rests heavily on Middle Tennessee carrying some of its recent scoring success into this matchup.

Liberty’s latest defensive result is the strongest reason for restraint. College Football Charts projects just 50 combined points, below the supplied total. The differing expectations for Middle Tennessee’s scoring make this a fragile total assessment rather than a wager.

Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders vs Liberty Flames Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Liberty 38, Middle Tennessee 20. Liberty’s season record, winning streak and recent defensive performance support the selection. The strongest counterargument is Middle Tennessee’s demonstrated ability to score through both the air and the ground, particularly on long plays.

Confidence is medium in the winner forecast. Confidence in either betting market is lower because the projected margin and total depend on how much of Middle Tennessee’s latest offensive performance carries over. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Blue Raiders20

Flames38

Projected winner Liberty FlamesConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders +21.5 (-110) and Liberty Flames -21.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 53.5 (-110) and Under 53.5 (-110)

Sources

  • Middle Tennessee State University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Late heroics lead the way as Blue Raiders down WKU on Homecoming
  • Liberty UniversityPrevious-game context: Late Scores and Reeves’ Leg Lifts Flames Over Aggies
  • College Football ChartsMiddle Tennessee vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
#MiddleTennStBlueRaiders#LibertyFlames

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Blue Raiders vs Flames game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Blue Raiders vs Flames matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders+1,000 → +950Moved
  • Moneyline · Liberty Flames-1,800 → -1,700Moved
  • Spread · Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders+21.5 (-110) → +21.5 (-105)Moved
  • Spread · Liberty Flames-21.5 (-110) → -21.5 (-111)Moved
  • Total · Over53.5 (-110) → 53.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Under53.5 (-110) → 53.5 (-110)Unchanged

ATS and O/U trends

Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders
5-4 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Liberty Flames
8-1 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-09T05:54:32.759Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2024-11-09Liberty Flames 37 · Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders 17
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