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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Kansas St. Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs
Sat 2:00 PM ET
Kansas St. Wildcats logo
Kansas St.
Wildcats
4-5
versus
TCU Horned Frogs logo
TCU
Horned Frogs
3-5
NCAAF · Kansas St. Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs

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Kansas St. vs TCU consensus picks

Over44%
56%Under
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Kansas St. Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction, odds and best bet for Nov. 14

Game time: November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, TX

Article updated Nov 9, 9:54 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

TCU is our projected winner over Kansas State, 27-23, on Nov. 14, 2026. Jaden Craig’s recent passing performance against a Wildcats defense coming off a nine-touchdown concession gives the Horned Frogs the stronger matchup case. Neither TCU -9.5 (-110) nor the total of 46.5 offers a sufficiently persuasive betting edge, so the official SportsJaw recommendation is Pass.

Kansas St. Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction and best bet

TCU gets the pick because Craig’s latest performance offers a more encouraging offensive starting point than Kansas State’s three-interception outing against Oklahoma State. The Wildcats’ defensive breakdown adds to that preference. Our forecast is TCU 27, Kansas State 23, with low confidence.

Best bet: Pass. Picking the Horned Frogs to win is easier than backing them to cover 9.5 points. Kansas State’s receiving production offers a plausible route to staying close, while both teams’ latest games raise concerns about trusting a low-scoring outcome. Neither market earns an official wager.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026, at 1 p.m. Central, as confirmed by Kansas State Athletics. This is a 2026 college football matchup.

Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Broadcast: ESPNU. Both schools’ Nov. 8 announcements confirm the matchup.

Records: Kansas St. Wildcats 4-5; TCU Horned Frogs 3-5.

SportsJaw odds: Kansas St. Wildcats +9.5 (-110); TCU Horned Frogs -9.5 (-110). Moneyline: Kansas St. Wildcats +280; TCU Horned Frogs -350. Total: Over 46.5 (-108); Under 46.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Kansas St. Wildcats outlook

Kansas State’s Nov. 7 loss to Oklahoma State presents the biggest concern in this matchup. According to the Wildcats’ official recap, Oklahoma State won 66-28, outgained Kansas State 565-327 and scored nine touchdowns on 14 possessions. That is a substantial defensive warning, although one game should not become a prediction that TCU will enjoy the same success.

The quarterback results were also uneven. Blake Barnett completed 10 of 17 passes for 94 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Dillon Duff completed seven of 17 for 106 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Those turnovers make ball security a central part of Kansas State’s path to an upset.

Derrick Salley Jr. supplied the clearest offensive bright spot with three catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns. His production gives the Wildcats a credible scoring threat even if they struggle to build consistent possessions.

TCU Horned Frogs outlook

TCU’s Nov. 6 defeat at Arizona was much closer, but its finish remains a concern. The school’s recap reports that the Horned Frogs led by eight with under seven minutes remaining before losing 29-28. Arizona recovered a squib-kick fumble and made the winning field goal with just over 30 seconds left.

Craig completed 28 of 41 passes for 232 yards and one touchdown, adding two rushing touchdowns. Kari Ashley caught 14 passes for 95 yards, while Jordan Dwyer contributed nine receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown. Those results make Craig’s connection with his leading targets the strongest reason to favor TCU here.

Hudson Hooper recorded 12 tackles and returned an interception 93 yards for a touchdown. That defensive score matters when assessing the offense: TCU’s 28-point team total was not entirely offensive production, so it should not be treated as a straightforward scoring baseline.

Key matchup factors

The central question is how much Kansas State’s defense improves from its latest performance. TCU has a reasonable opportunity to exploit those problems, but the forecast assumes a more competitive game than the Wildcats’ loss to Oklahoma State. The two recaps involve different opponents and offer a limited comparison.

Series history supplies a counterweight. Kansas State Athletics reports three consecutive Wildcats wins and six victories in the last seven meetings. However, this is Kansas State’s first visit to TCU since losing 38-28 in Fort Worth on Oct. 22, 2022. That history warrants caution without deciding the current matchup.

At the Nov. 9, 14:36 UTC update, external consensus favored Under 46.5 (-110) at 67%, and the blended figure also stood at 67%. The modeled equivalent sample assigned 402 of 600 selections to Under. Those are estimates, not observed betting tickets or a win probability, and they are not a separate confirmation of value.

Kansas St. Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Kansas State +9.5 (-110) and TCU -9.5 (-110). Our four-point projected margin points toward the Wildcats numerically, but their latest defensive performance makes taking the points a fragile proposition.

TCU’s passing results support the outright selection, while its late loss at Arizona adds caution about expecting a comfortable finish. A projected score is an editorial estimate, and the gap between that estimate and the spread alone is not enough to justify a wager.

Kansas St. Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 46.5 (-110) and Under 46.5 (-110). Our projection totals 50 points, putting it above the line and against the consensus preference for Under.

Kansas State’s defensive troubles are the strongest objection to an Under bet. Conversely, its quarterback interceptions and TCU’s reliance on a defensive touchdown in the Arizona game complicate the case for Over. The recent results leave too much uncertainty about repeatable offensive production to back either direction.

Kansas St. Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: TCU 27, Kansas State 23. Craig’s recent passing production and the Wildcats’ defensive difficulties give TCU the advantage. Kansas State’s recent series success and Salley’s scoring threat are the strongest counterarguments.

Confidence: Low. The Horned Frogs are our selected winner, but the forecast rests heavily on a narrow slice of recent form. Both the spread and total recommendations are Pass, and the single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Wildcats23

Horned Frogs27

Projected winner TCU Horned FrogsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Kansas State +9.5 (-110) and TCU -9.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 46.5 (-110) and Under 46.5 (-110)

Sources

  • Kansas State University AthleticsTCU Game Set for Afternoon Kick
  • TCU AthleticsKansas State Game Set for 1 P.M. Kickoff
  • Kansas State University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Oklahoma State Too Much for K-State, 66-28
#KansasStWildcats#TCUHornedFrogs

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Wildcats vs Horned Frogs game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Wildcats vs Horned Frogs matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Kansas St. Wildcats-1,233 → +280Moved
  • Moneyline · TCU Horned Frogs-400 → -350Moved
  • Spread · Kansas St. Wildcats+8.5 (-115) → +9.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · TCU Horned Frogs-8.5 (-105) → -9.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over46.5 (-112) → 46.5 (-108)Moved
  • Total · Under46.5 (-108) → 46.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Kansas St. Wildcats
4-5 matchup record · 3-6-1 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
TCU Horned Frogs
3-5 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-09T14:54:07.636Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-10-11TCU Horned Frogs 28 · Kansas St. Wildcats 41
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