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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Sat 12:45 PM ET
Alabama Crimson Tide logo
Alabama
Crimson Tide
7-2
versus
Vanderbilt Commodores logo
Vanderbilt
Commodores
4-5
NCAAF · Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores

Your Picks on Alabama vs Vanderbilt

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Alabama vs Vanderbilt consensus picks

Over31%
69%Under
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Sportsbook lines for this game

Current lines

MatchupBest availableDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsCircaBet105BetOnlineBovadaHeritageLowvigPinnacleSportsbettingUnibetYouWagertheScore Bet
Nov 14, 12:45 PM ETAlabama Crimson TideVanderbilt Commodores
Best available-1000Bovada+850Unibet
DraftKings-1050+675
FanDuel-1050+720
BetMGM-1100+775
Caesars-1200+700
Circa——
Bet105-1030+652
BetOnline-1000BEST+661
Bovada-1000BEST+650
Heritage-1052+672
Lowvig-1000BEST+661
Pinnacle-1031+650
Sportsbetting-1000BEST+661
Unibet-1667+850BEST
YouWager——
theScore Bet-1400+750

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Best Bet for Nov. 14, 2026

Game time: November 14, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET

Venue: FirstBank Stadium — Nashville, TN

Article updated Nov 9, 12:26 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Alabama will beat Vanderbilt, with a projected score of Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 17. Russell’s efficient passing and Alabama’s timely defensive stops against LSU supply the strongest reasons to favor the Crimson Tide. Vanderbilt’s recent possession control makes the covering margin less certain, however. Neither Alabama -18.5 (-110), Vanderbilt +18.5 (-110), nor the supplied 52.5 total offers enough value for an official wager.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction and best bet

Alabama is the pick to win this 2026 college football matchup, but the best betting decision is Pass. The Crimson Tide enter off a 31-13 victory at LSU in which Keelon Russell threw three touchdown passes. That performance gives Alabama a credible route to another road victory without requiring every possession to go its way.

The distinction is the price. Alabama must win by at least 19 points to cover -18.5 (-110), beyond our projected 17-point margin. Vanderbilt’s ability to hold the ball against Mississippi State offers a plausible way to keep the margin smaller. Still, a modest difference between a forecast and a spread is too fragile to make the Commodores an official bet.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 11:45 a.m. CT, or 12:45 p.m. ET.

Venue: FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Broadcast: SEC Network.

Records: Alabama Crimson Tide 7-2; Vanderbilt Commodores 4-5.

SportsJaw odds: Alabama Crimson Tide -17.5 (-110); Vanderbilt Commodores +17.5 (-110). Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide -1,050; Vanderbilt Commodores +675. Total: Over 52.5 (-106); Under 52.5 (-112).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Alabama Crimson Tide outlook

Russell completed 17 of 24 passes for 206 yards against LSU and added 25 rushing yards on eight carries, according to Alabama Athletics’ November 7 recap. Rico Scott contributed three catches for 67 yards, while Kaleb Edwards caught three passes for 50 yards and a touchdown. Those contributions support an expectation that Alabama can generate enough offense to win.

The defensive result deserves a closer look than the final score alone. LSU outgained Alabama 457-285, but the Tide held the Tigers to 5-for-14 on third down and 0-for-4 on fourth down. Alabama then scored the final 21 points across a 9:13 stretch of the third and fourth quarters. Timely stops were decisive, although allowing that much yardage is a reason to be cautious about projecting another comfortable margin.

College Football Now’s preview flags Russell’s ankle as something to monitor during game week. That is the analyst’s availability caution, not a confirmed injury designation here. His November 7 production supports the forecast, while his effectiveness on November 14 remains a consideration.

Vanderbilt Commodores outlook

Vanderbilt’s November 7 postgame notes document a 25-23 win at Mississippi State built around extended possession. The Commodores held the ball for 39:55 and put together an 18-play, 87-yard scoring drive lasting 10:19. They also kept Mississippi State scoreless throughout the first half. Repeating that possession control would give Vanderbilt a way to limit Alabama’s scoring opportunities.

Jared Curtis passed for 168 yards and became the second Vanderbilt freshman to exceed 1,500 passing yards in his first season. Junior Sherrill caught seven passes for 41 yards, extending his active FBS-leading reception streak to 46 games. Those are useful recent contributions, though neither guarantees the same production against Alabama.

Brock Taylor supplied a school-record six field goals, including kicks from 55 and 54 yards. His performance helped secure the Mississippi State win. For this forecast, the concern is whether Vanderbilt can turn enough possessions into touchdowns if Alabama’s passing game produces another productive afternoon.

Key matchup factors

The central contest is between Vanderbilt’s demonstrated ability to extend possessions and Alabama’s recent success ending them on critical downs. Longer Vanderbilt drives could reduce Alabama’s opportunities to pull away. Conversely, possessions that consume time but end without touchdowns could leave the Commodores struggling to match the Tide’s scoring.

Other analysts favor Alabama, but differ substantially on the margin. College Football Charts projects Alabama 39, Vanderbilt 19 and assigns Alabama a 90% win probability. Its analysis highlights favorable rushing and passing matchups for the Tide. Dimers projects Alabama 36, Vanderbilt 18, with a 90.9% Alabama win probability. College Football Now is more conservative at Alabama 31, Vanderbilt 20, emphasizing Vanderbilt’s sustained-drive approach.

Those are external forecasts and model probabilities, separate from SportsJaw’s medium editorial confidence. Their shared winner strengthens the context for picking Alabama, but their margins range from 11 to 20 points. Agreement on the winner leaves meaningful disagreement about both betting markets.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Alabama Crimson Tide -18.5 (-110) and Vanderbilt Commodores +18.5 (-110). Our 17-point margin tilts toward Vanderbilt covering, but leaves only 1.5 points between the forecast and the line.

The external projections illustrate the uncertainty: College Football Charts’ 20-point margin would cover Alabama -18.5, while Dimers’ 18-point margin and College Football Now’s 11-point margin would favor Vanderbilt +18.5. These score forecasts are not interchangeable with explicit spread recommendations.

SportsJaw’s November 9 consensus update, recorded at 05:18 UTC, shows Vanderbilt +18.5 (-110) leading both the external and blended measures at 54%. That is consensus preference, not a cover probability or a SportsJaw member-pick percentage. It offers context for the underdog case without making a narrow projected advantage compelling.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 52.5 (-109) and Under 52.5 (-111). Our projected 51 points sit slightly below the line, making Under the directional inclination but leaving too little room for an official wager.

Vanderbilt’s recent possession control and Alabama’s stops against LSU suggest a route to fewer points. The counterargument is that sustained possessions can still produce scoring, and Alabama just demonstrated how quickly it can change a game with consecutive scores. The outside forecasts also straddle 52.5: College Football Charts projects 58 combined points, Dimers 54 and College Football Now 51. The total deserves its own Pass.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Alabama Crimson Tide 34, Vanderbilt Commodores 17. Confidence: medium. Russell’s recent passing performance and Alabama’s timely defensive stops support the winner. Vanderbilt’s possession control, together with the yardage Alabama conceded at LSU, is the strongest counterargument to expecting a decisive margin.

This is an editorial projection, with more conviction in Alabama winning than in either market offering value. The spread and total each sit close to our forecast, while the other analysts’ scores span both sides of those lines. The single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Crimson Tide34

Commodores17

Projected winner Alabama Crimson TideConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 52.5 (-109) and Under 52.5 (-111)

Sources

  • Alabama FootballAlabama at Vanderbilt 2026: Kickoff Time, TV and What to Know
  • Alabama AthleticsPrevious-game context: No. 5/9/9 Alabama Rolls Past No. 14/15/15 LSU, 31-13, in Baton Rouge
  • Vanderbilt CommodoresPrevious-game context: Postgame Notes vs. Mississippi State
#AlabamaCrimsonTide#VanderbiltCommodores

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Crimson Tide vs Commodores game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Crimson Tide vs Commodores matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Alabama Crimson Tide-1,250 → -1,050Moved
  • Moneyline · Vanderbilt Commodores+760 → +675Moved
  • Spread · Alabama Crimson Tide-18.5 (-115) → -17.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Vanderbilt Commodores+18.5 (-105) → +17.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over54.5 (-110) → 52.5 (-106)Moved
  • Total · Under54.5 (-110) → 52.5 (-112)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Alabama Crimson Tide
7-2 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Vanderbilt Commodores
4-5 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-09T05:26:01.893Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

College Football Now’s preview flags Russell’s ankle as something to monitor during game week. That is the analyst’s availability caution, not a confirmed injury designation here. His November 7 production supports the forecast, while his effectiveness on November 14 remains a consideration.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-10-04Vanderbilt Commodores 14 · Alabama Crimson Tide 30
  • 2024-10-05Alabama Crimson Tide 35 · Vanderbilt Commodores 40
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