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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi St. Bulldogs
Sat 12:00 PM ET
Auburn Tigers logo
Auburn
Tigers
5-4
versus
Mississippi St. Bulldogs logo
Mississippi St.
Bulldogs
4-5
NCAAF · Auburn Tigers at Mississippi St. Bulldogs

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Auburn vs Mississippi St. consensus picks

Auburn Tigers59%
41%Mississippi St. Bulldogs
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Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi St. Bulldogs prediction, odds and projected score

Game time: November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

Venue: Davis Wade Stadium — Starkville, MS

Article updated Nov 9, 12:09 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Auburn will beat Mississippi State, 27-23, in our forecast for Nov. 14, 2026. Byrum Brown’s passing and rushing production, paired with Auburn’s disruptive defensive performance against Arkansas, gives the Tigers a slight advantage. That advantage is too fragile to make Auburn -3 (-108) an actionable wager. Our official betting recommendation is Pass, with no play on the total of 50 either.

Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi St. Bulldogs prediction and best bet

Auburn gets the nod because its latest win offered two encouraging ingredients: a quarterback who contributed through the air and on the ground, and a defense that repeatedly made plays behind the line. Those performances favor the Tigers in a close game, but repeating them on the road is the central uncertainty.

The best betting decision is Pass. Mississippi State’s recent rushing struggles help Auburn’s case, while the Bulldogs’ passing production and earlier run-defense numbers offer credible resistance. A projected four-point victory leaves only a narrow cushion against Auburn -3 (-108), especially when other analysts disagree about the outright winner.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Auburn Tigers at Mississippi St. Bulldogs, Nov. 14, 2026, in the 2026 college football season. Both teams’ Nov. 7 official recaps identify this matchup as their next game.

Venue: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi.

Broadcast: ESPN2.

Records: Auburn Tigers 5-4; Mississippi St. Bulldogs 4-5.

SportsJaw odds: Auburn Tigers -2.5 (-115); Mississippi St. Bulldogs +2.5 (-105). Moneyline: Auburn Tigers -145; Mississippi St. Bulldogs +125. Total: Over 50.5 (-109); Under 50.5 (-111).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Auburn Tigers outlook

Auburn’s official recap describes a 26-23 home win over Arkansas on Nov. 7 after the Tigers trailed 10-3 at halftime. Brown completed 23 of 34 passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns, adding 120 rushing yards and another touchdown. His contribution in both areas is the strongest offensive reason to favor Auburn.

The defensive production was equally striking. Linebacker Shadarius Toodle made his collegiate debut with 11 tackles, three sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss and a pass breakup. Auburn totaled six sacks and 12 tackles for loss; the recap identified that sack total as its highest since the 2021 Iron Bowl.

Those are substantial contributions from one game, rather than proof of a weekly standard. The forecast gives Auburn credit for that performance without assuming Toodle or the entire defensive front will reproduce it against a different opponent.

Mississippi St. Bulldogs outlook

Mississippi State’s official recap records a 25-23 loss to Vanderbilt on Nov. 7. The Bulldogs recovered from a 16-0 halftime deficit but missed a late two-point attempt. AJ Swann threw for 254 yards, with Sanfrisco Magee catching touchdowns of 65 and 30 yards and finishing with 95 receiving yards.

The passing game has another established contributor in Anthony Evans III. Before the Vanderbilt game, Mississippi State reported that he led SEC receivers with 56 catches and ranked second at 92.4 receiving yards per game. Those figures describe his standing entering that game, rather than updated totals for this matchup.

Balance remains the concern after Mississippi State rushed for 43 yards against Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs were outgained 328-297 and held possession for 20:05 against Vanderbilt’s 39:55. Their passing comeback kept that contest close, but a more productive ground game would give them additional ways to compete with Auburn.

Key matchup factors

Brown’s rushing contribution meets a legitimate counterweight. Before facing Vanderbilt, Mississippi State reported allowing 116.5 rushing yards per game, compared with 186.0 in 2025. That earlier season figure argues against simply carrying Brown’s Arkansas production into this projection. How effectively the Bulldogs contain him is a major swing factor.

The analysts are split. Dimers’ Nov. 8 model assigned Auburn a 62.0% win probability and Mississippi State 38.0%. Its page also reported Luck Adjusted favoring Mississippi State by 1.9 points with a 54.9% win probability, and College Football Charts favoring the Bulldogs at 55%. These are competing model opinions, not demonstrated betting advantages.

The SportsJaw blended spread consensus favors Auburn -3 (-108) at 59%, updated Nov. 9 at 05:03 UTC. External consensus also stands at 59%. That agreement describes selection preference; it is neither Auburn’s win probability nor a measure of this forecast’s confidence.

Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi St. Bulldogs spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Auburn -3 (-108) and Mississippi State +3 (-112). Our projected margin falls on Auburn’s side of the spread, but only by one point. Brown’s recent production and the Tigers’ defensive disruption support the winner selection more strongly than they support laying the points.

Mississippi State’s earlier run-defense performance and its long touchdown connections against Vanderbilt make the underdog competitive in this forecast. The opposing model views reinforce that uncertainty. Neither side offers a persuasive enough advantage at the supplied price to become an official wager.

Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi St. Bulldogs total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 50 (-110) and Under 50 (-110). Our projection totals exactly 50 points. That is a central estimate, with no directional preference strong enough to justify paying either price.

The recent games offer competing signals. Mississippi State’s long touchdown passes illustrate how quickly it can score, while Auburn’s defensive pressure offers a route to stalled drives. Both teams also needed second-half recoveries after halftime deficits. Those different scoring patterns leave too much uncertainty to favor either the Over or Under.

Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi St. Bulldogs Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Auburn Tigers 27, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23. Brown’s contribution as a passer and runner, supported by Auburn’s latest defensive performance, earns the Tigers a slight preference. Mississippi State’s run defense and demonstrated ability to score through the air are the strongest counterarguments.

Confidence is low. Dimers also favors Auburn, but its detailed projection is 27-22 while a separate display shows 27-23, and the other model opinions favor Mississippi State. Our score is an editorial forecast. Auburn is the pick to win; the spread and total are both passes, and the single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Tigers27

Bulldogs23

Projected winner Auburn TigersConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Auburn Tigers Official Athletics WebsitePrevious-game context: Auburn rallies, beats Arkansas 26-23 on last-minute drive
  • Mississippi State AthleticsPrevious-game context: State Comes Up Just Short On Homecoming
  • Mississippi State AthleticsPrevious-game context: Mississippi State Returns Home to Face Vanderbilt on Homecoming
#AuburnTigers#MississippiStBulldogs

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Tigers vs Bulldogs game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Tigers vs Bulldogs matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Auburn Tigers-176 → -145Moved
  • Moneyline · Mississippi St. Bulldogs+142 → +125Moved
  • Spread · Auburn Tigers-3.5 (-114) → -2.5 (-115)Moved
  • Spread · Mississippi St. Bulldogs+3.5 (-106) → +2.5 (-105)Moved
  • Total · Over49.5 (-110) → 50.5 (-109)Moved
  • Total · Under49.5 (-110) → 50.5 (-111)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Auburn Tigers
5-4 matchup record · 2-8-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Mississippi St. Bulldogs
4-5 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-09T05:09:07.114Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

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