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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs
Sat 12:00 PM ET
Wake Forest Demon Deacons logo
Wake Forest
Demon Deacons
7-1
versus
SMU Mustangs logo
SMU
Mustangs
7-2
NCAAF · Wake Forest Demon Deacons at SMU Mustangs

Your Picks on Wake Forest vs SMU

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Total

Wake Forest vs SMU consensus picks

Wake Forest Demon Deacons73%
27%SMU Mustangs
Odds comparison

Sportsbook lines for this game

Current lines

MatchupBest availableDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMBet105BetOnlineBovadaHeritageLowvigPinnacleSportsbettingUnibetYouWagertheScore Bet
Nov 14, 12:00 PM ETWake Forest Demon DeaconsSMU Mustangs
Best available-116Pinnacle+107Unibet
DraftKings——
FanDuel-122+104
BetMGM-120+100
Bet105-116BEST+102
BetOnline-120+100
Bovada-120+100
Heritage-120+100
Lowvig-120+100
Pinnacle-116BEST+102
Sportsbetting-120+100
Unibet-132+107BEST
YouWager——
theScore Bet-120+100

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Best Bet for Nov. 14, 2026

Game time: November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, TX

Article updated Nov 9, 9:48 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Wake Forest is the pick to beat SMU, 31-30, with its recent passing production providing the strongest reason for a narrow advantage. SMU’s scoring response against Virginia Tech and divided analyst forecasts keep confidence low. Neither Wake Forest -1.5 (-109) nor the total of 61.5 offers a compelling wager, so the official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs prediction and best bet

Wake Forest gets the nod in this November 14 college football matchup, but the forecast stops short of a spread endorsement. The Demon Deacons showed several ways to generate offense in their latest victory. SMU’s recent home results make a narrow finish a more convincing expectation than a comfortable Wake Forest win.

The best betting decision is Pass. Picking the outright winner requires choosing the more likely outcome; backing Wake Forest -1.5 (-109) requires enough confidence in a multi-point victory to justify the price. Our one-point projection leaves that second question unanswered, while the conflicting forecasts also discourage an automatic bet on SMU.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and matchup: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at SMU Mustangs, November 14, 2026, in the 2026 college football season.

Verified record: Wake Forest reached 8-1 overall and 5-1 in the ACC with its November 7 victory.

SportsJaw moneyline: Wake Forest -121; SMU +102.

SportsJaw odds: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -1.5 (-109); SMU Mustangs +1.5 (-110). Moneyline: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -121; SMU Mustangs +102. Total: Over 61.5 (-105); Under 61.5 (-115).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 61.5 (-108); Under 61.5 (-110).

Wake Forest Demon Deacons outlook

Wake Forest’s November 7 performance supplies the clearest personnel-based reason to favor the visitors. In the university’s account of the 77-0 victory over Merrimack, first-time starter Steele Pizzella completed 23 of 28 passes for 432 yards and three touchdowns. He added 63 rushing yards and another touchdown.

Jack Foley contributed six receptions for 162 yards, while Carlos Hernandez caught four passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns. Eleven players recorded a reception. That distribution gives the forecast more substance than the final score alone: several receivers contributed, and Pizzella produced both through the air and on the ground.

The limitation is the scope of that performance. One productive start against Merrimack is a reason for optimism, but projecting the same efficiency against SMU would be a substantial leap. Pizzella’s numbers describe his previous appearance; they are not a confirmed starting assignment for this game.

SMU Mustangs outlook

SMU brings its own persuasive recent result. According to SMU Athletics, the Mustangs beat Virginia Tech 51-28 at home on November 6, responding to a 30-27 loss at Syracuse on October 31. That rebound is the strongest immediate counterweight to Wake Forest’s offensive showcase.

The official results also include home victories over California, 59-20, Virginia, 23-13, and Boston College, 25-16. Those wins span substantially different scoring environments. They give SMU a credible home-performance argument without requiring an assumption that it must win a shootout.

For this forecast, SMU’s appeal is its demonstrated ability to rebound and win at home. The Virginia Tech score makes it difficult to envision Wake Forest controlling this matchup simply because the Demon Deacons just recorded a shutout.

Key matchup factors

The outside forecasts disagree meaningfully. College Football Charts assigns Wake Forest a 66% aggregate win probability, citing an adjusted-offense and rushing advantage. Those are that publisher’s analytical conclusions. Its own SP+ component instead projects SMU 30-27 with a 60% win probability, while Elo gives Wake Forest only a 54% chance.

The Sports Wire’s experimental probabilities favor SMU, 51% to 49%, although most models in its comparison favor Wake Forest. These overlapping model comparisons are other analysts’ views, not separate confirmations of a reliable betting edge. They help explain a slight Wake Forest preference while leaving substantial room for an SMU victory.

The November 9 consensus update at 14:36 UTC shows external support of 73% for Wake Forest on the moneyline and 71% for Under 61.5. Its blended moneyline estimate represents 438 Wake Forest selections against 162 for SMU in a modeled equivalent sample of 600. Those estimates are not observed tickets or SportsJaw member-pick totals, and the percentages measure selection preference rather than win probability.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs spread prediction

Pass on Wake Forest -1.5 (-109) and SMU +1.5 (-110). Our projected one-point Wake Forest win would favor SMU against the spread, but that narrow projected margin is too fragile to make the home underdog an official recommendation.

Wake Forest’s recent production supports choosing it to win. SMU’s home results and the analyst disagreement limit confidence in the margin. Neither side offers a sufficiently persuasive combination of matchup support and price to warrant a spread wager.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs total prediction

Pass on total 61.5, with Over priced at -108 and Under at -110. The projected 61 points sit just below the line, leaving little separation between the forecast and the betting threshold.

Both teams’ latest scoring outputs make the Over tempting, while external consensus favors the Under. Neither recent final scores nor selection popularity supplies a dependable expectation for possessions or scoring efficiency in this particular matchup. The total remains a separate Pass.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Wake Forest 31, SMU 30. Wake Forest’s recent quarterback and receiving production earns the slight preference. SMU’s convincing response against Virginia Tech, reinforced by forecasts that favor the Mustangs, is the strongest counterargument.

Confidence is low. This is an editorial projection of a close game, not a probability estimate or a promised betting advantage. The official SportsJaw wager is Pass, with both the spread and total left alone at the supplied prices.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Demon Deacons31

Mustangs30

Projected winner Wake Forest Demon DeaconsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Wake Forest Demon Deacons -1.5 (-109) and SMU Mustangs +1.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on total 61.5: Over (-108), Under (-110)

Sources

  • Wake Forest University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Dominant Overall Team Performance by No. 16 Wake Forest Leads to 77-0 Victory over Merrimack
  • SMU AthleticsPrevious-game context: Mustangs Roll In Friday Night Win Over Virginia Tech, 51-28
  • College Football ChartsWake Forest vs. SMU Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
#WakeForestDemonDeacons#SMUMustangs

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Demon Deacons vs Mustangs game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Demon Deacons vs Mustangs matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Wake Forest Demon Deacons-130 → -121Moved
  • Moneyline · SMU Mustangs+108 → +102Moved
  • Spread · Wake Forest Demon Deacons-3.5 (-105) → -1.5 (-109)Moved
  • Spread · SMU Mustangs+3.5 (-115) → +1.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over55.5 (-110) → 61.5 (-105)Moved
  • Total · Under55.5 (-110) → 61.5 (-115)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
7-1 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
SMU Mustangs
7-2 matchup record · 4-4-2 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-08T05:29:54.477Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-10-25SMU Mustangs 12 · Wake Forest Demon Deacons 13
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