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  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma St. Cowboys
Sat 9:30 PM ET
Texas Tech Red Raiders logo
Texas Tech
Red Raiders
8-1
versus
Oklahoma St. Cowboys logo
Oklahoma St.
Cowboys
5-3
NCAAF · Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma St. Cowboys

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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma St. Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Best Bet

Game time: November 14, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET

Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium — Stillwater, OK

Article updated Nov 9, 10:47 AM EST

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Oklahoma State is projected to beat Texas Tech 38-35, with Drew Mestemaker’s sustained passing production giving the Cowboys a slight advantage. Texas Tech’s productive rushing attack makes this a fragile pick, and neither Texas Tech +3.5 (-115) nor Over 72.5 (-110) offers enough cushion to justify a wager. SportsJaw’s official betting recommendation is Pass, with low confidence in the game forecast.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma St. Cowboys prediction and best bet

Oklahoma State gets the winner pick because its offensive production extends beyond one explosive afternoon. The Associated Press reports averages of 533.6 total yards and 43.9 points per game, while the Cowboys’ official notes document eight consecutive games with at least 300 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes from Mestemaker.

Texas Tech has enough offense to make the finish uncomfortable. Our forecast is Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 35, but a projected three-point margin is too delicate to turn Texas Tech +3.5 (-115) into an official bet. Best bet: Pass. Picking the winner and finding a worthwhile price are separate judgments.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma St. Cowboys, a 2026 college football matchup.

Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026, at 9:30 p.m. EST, according to the Associated Press.

Broadcast: ESPN.

Records: Texas Tech Red Raiders 8-1; Oklahoma St. Cowboys 5-3.

SportsJaw odds: Texas Tech Red Raiders +3.5 (-115); Oklahoma St. Cowboys -3.5 (-105). Moneyline: Texas Tech Red Raiders +148; Oklahoma St. Cowboys -168. Total: Over 72.5 (-110); Under 72.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 72.5 (-110); Under 72.5 (-110). Moneyline: Texas Tech +138; Oklahoma State -165.

Texas Tech Red Raiders outlook

Texas Tech averages 449.4 total yards, 214.8 rushing yards and 37.6 points per game, according to the Associated Press. The rushing production gives the Red Raiders a credible route to keeping pace without asking their passing game to carry every possession.

Their Nov. 7 victory over West Virginia showed how dangerous that combination can become. Thomas Castellanos completed 18 of 27 passes for 362 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, adding 102 rushing yards. J'Koby Williams contributed 160 rushing yards, including a 75-yard touchdown, in the 53-48 win.

The defensive results make an outright Texas Tech pick harder. The official recap reports 279 rushing yards allowed to West Virginia and at least 255 allowed in two of the previous three games. Those are concerns about run defense specifically, rather than proof of how Texas Tech will handle Mestemaker’s passing attack.

Oklahoma St. Cowboys outlook

Oklahoma State’s passing game supplies the strongest reason to favor the Cowboys. Their 339.1 passing yards per game, reported by the Associated Press, fit the sustained production documented in Mestemaker’s recent performances.

In the Nov. 7 win at Kansas State, Mestemaker completed 22 of 28 passes for 313 yards and four passing touchdowns. He also scored a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown. Oklahoma State won 66-28, outgained Kansas State 565-327 and scored on 10 of 15 drives, according to its official postgame notes.

The Cowboys had punted only 15 times through nine games. That supports confidence in their ability to sustain offensive pressure, although the Kansas State result alone is not a reason to expect another comfortable margin against Texas Tech.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Oklahoma State’s passing production can outweigh Texas Tech’s combination of rushing volume and quarterback mobility. Both offenses have persuasive recent performances. Texas Tech’s defensive trouble adds risk to its chances, but the documented rushing weakness is not a direct measure of this particular passing matchup.

Other analysts disagree substantially. Dimers projects Oklahoma State 37-33 and gives the Cowboys a 61.6% win probability. College Football Charts’ SP+ projection instead favors Texas Tech 34-30, with a 60% win probability.

College Football Charts also presents a PRIME projection favoring Oklahoma State by 12.6 with an 82% win probability, while its Elo model gives Texas Tech a 73% chance. These are separate model views, not a unified consensus or SportsJaw confidence rating. The disagreement spans both the winner and the likely margin.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma St. Cowboys spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Texas Tech +3.5 (-115) and Oklahoma State -3.5 (-105).

Our three-point forecast falls on Texas Tech’s side of the spread, but only by half a point. That narrow difference is not enough to recommend paying -115, especially when the outside projections range from a Texas Tech victory to a double-digit Oklahoma State margin.

Laying 3.5 with Oklahoma State is also unappealing against this forecast. The Cowboys have the offensive case to win; Texas Tech’s own production makes separation much less certain.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma St. Cowboys total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 72.5 (-110) and Under 72.5 (-110).

The offensive averages and both teams’ latest scoring performances give the Over a plausible path. Our projected score totals 73, however, just half a point above the supplied number. That is too small a margin for an actionable recommendation.

The counterargument comes from the lower-scoring outside forecasts: Dimers projects 70 combined points and College Football Charts’ SP+ projects 64. Those projections are opinions, not proof of an Under edge, but they reinforce the uncertainty around a demanding total.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oklahoma St. Cowboys Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 35. Confidence: low.

Mestemaker’s sustained passing output gives Oklahoma State the slight nod. Texas Tech’s productive ground game and Castellanos’ latest performance are the strongest counterargument, giving the Red Raiders a credible path to winning outright.

The forecast anticipates a close, high-scoring finish. Neither its margin nor its combined score offers sufficient breathing room against the supplied prices. The single official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Red Raiders35

Cowboys38

Projected winner Oklahoma St. CowboysConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Texas Tech Red Raiders +3.5 (-115) and Oklahoma St. Cowboys -3.5 (-105)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 72.5 (-110) and Under 72.5 (-110)

Sources

  • ABC News / Associated PressBig 12 matchup features Oklahoma State squaring off against No. 10 Texas Tech
  • CoversTexas Tech vs Oklahoma State Odds
  • Texas Tech Athletics / Associated PressPrevious-game context: Castellanos throws five TDs in 53-48 win over WVU
#TexasTechRedRaiders#OklahomaStCowboys

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Red Raiders vs Cowboys game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Red Raiders vs Cowboys matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Texas Tech Red Raiders-700 → +148Moved
  • Moneyline · Oklahoma St. Cowboys+500 → -168Moved
  • Spread · Texas Tech Red Raiders-15.5 (-110) → +3.5 (-115)Moved
  • Spread · Oklahoma St. Cowboys+15.5 (-110) → -3.5 (-105)Moved
  • Total · Over61.5 (-108) → 72.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under61.5 (-112) → 72.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Texas Tech Red Raiders
8-1 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Oklahoma St. Cowboys
5-3 matchup record · 8-2-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-08T05:04:02.429Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2024-11-23Texas Tech Red Raiders 56 · Oklahoma St. Cowboys 48
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