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NCAAF PicksThu 7:30 PM ET
South Florida Bulls logo
South Florida
Bulls
3-1
versus
UTSA Roadrunners logo
UTSA
Roadrunners
4-1
NCAAF · USF at UTSA

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South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners Predictions October 8, 2026

Game time: October 8, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX

Article updated Oct 4, 7:54 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

UTSA will beat South Florida, with a projected score of UTSA 27, South Florida 23, on October 8 at the Alamodome. The Roadrunners’ disruptive defensive performance against Rice supplies the strongest matchup reason, although the Bulls’ defense makes a close finish plausible. Neither UTSA -6.5 (-122) nor the total offers a convincing betting edge. The official recommendation is Pass.

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction and best bet

UTSA gets the pick in this 2026 college football matchup, with low confidence. Its ability to create negative plays against Rice gives the Roadrunners a plausible route to slowing South Florida. The forecast favors UTSA narrowly, rather than treating its status as the home favorite as proof of a comfortable win.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. South Florida’s defensive performance against Temple complicates the favorite’s spread case, while one low-scoring game from each team is a thin foundation for a total wager. A projected winner and a score are useful judgments, but neither automatically makes the supplied price attractive.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026.

Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas.

Broadcast: ESPN.

Records: South Florida is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in American Conference play. UTSA is 4-1 after winning its conference opener.

SportsJaw moneyline: South Florida +220; UTSA -275.

SportsJaw spread: South Florida +6.5 (+100); UTSA -6.5 (-122). Total: Over 56.5 (-114); Under 56.5 (-106).

South Florida Bulls outlook

South Florida suffered its first loss on October 3, falling 17-13 to Temple at Raymond James Stadium. Michael Van Buren completed 17 of 32 passes for 205 yards, and the Bulls finished with 319 total yards. The modest scoring output puts offensive execution at the center of their rebound attempt.

D.J. Crowther rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries after consecutive 100-yard games. His production against Temple was a step back from those outings. Cam Seldon added a career-best 53 receiving yards on three catches, offering a positive individual result in the defeat.

The defense gave South Florida a chance. Temple managed 274 yards, punted five times and converted five of 12 third downs. The damaging exception was a decisive 96-yard touchdown drive with 3:08 remaining. That combination suggests defensive resistance without guaranteeing that the Bulls can finish a close game.

UTSA Roadrunners outlook

UTSA defeated Rice 16-14 in Houston on October 3. The Roadrunners limited Rice to 232 total yards and 88 passing yards, recording a season-high 10 tackles for loss and three sacks. That was the strongest part of a performance that still produced only a two-point victory.

Jeremiah Bailey, Camron Cooper and Darion White each recorded a sack. Bailey contributed 2.5 tackles for loss, and Cooper recovered a fumble. Those contributions give the defensive forecast substance, though repeating that disruption against a different opponent remains the challenge.

Will Henderson III rushed for 90 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. UTSA gained 166 rushing yards, finished with 314 total yards and possessed the ball for 32:06. The Roadrunners led 16-7 at halftime before Rice’s fourth-quarter touchdown narrowed the margin, a reminder that their defensive success did not translate into separation.

Key matchup factors

The key question is whether UTSA can disrupt South Florida before drives develop. If the Roadrunners force unfavorable down-and-distance situations, Van Buren could face a difficult evening. That is a matchup inference from UTSA’s latest performance, not an assumption that Rice and South Florida present identical challenges.

The Bulls’ defense is the main counterweight. UTSA’s latest offensive output leaves room for South Florida to keep this competitive. Both teams played October 3 before this Thursday meeting, so the schedule alone offers no reason to assign either side a preparation advantage.

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on South Florida Bulls +6.5 (+100) and UTSA Roadrunners -6.5 (-122). The four-point projected margin points toward the Bulls against the spread, but confidence in that precise margin is too low to make it an official play.

UTSA must win by at least seven points to cover. Its narrow Rice victory and South Florida’s defensive resistance favor caution, but games against different opponents offer only a limited guide to Thursday’s margin.

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 56.5 (-114) and Under 56.5 (-106). The 50-point forecast sits below the line, and each team’s latest game finished with 30 combined points. Those results make Under the more natural direction to consider.

Still, two individual games are insufficient to treat that scoring pattern as dependable. The defensive yardage figures strengthen the Under argument, but they do not tell us enough about how these offenses will interact. The gap between the forecast and total stays an opinion rather than a wager.

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners projected score

Game forecast: UTSA 27, South Florida 23. UTSA’s recent defensive disruption earns it the narrow winning selection. South Florida’s ability to limit Temple is the strongest counterargument and keeps confidence low.

The projection allows for more scoring than either team’s previous game while preserving a competitive finish. UTSA is the predicted winner; both the spread and total are passes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

USF23

UTSA27

Projected winner UTSA RoadrunnersConfidenceSlight Lean — South Florida Bulls
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — South Florida Bulls +6.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on South Florida Bulls +6.5 (+100) and UTSA Roadrunners -6.5 (-122)

Pick on the Total

Moderate Lean — Under 56.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 56.5 (-114) and Under 56.5 (-106)

Sources

  • USF AthleticsPrevious-game context: Bulls Fall to Temple For First Loss of the Season
  • UTSA AthleticsPrevious-game context: Roadrunners hold off Owls on Saturday night in league opener

SportsJaw Bulls vs Roadrunners game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Bulls vs Roadrunners matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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