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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners
Thu 7:30 PM ET
South Florida Bulls logo
South Florida
Bulls24
3-1
versus
UTSA Roadrunners logo
UTSA
Roadrunners31
4-1
Final
Team1234T
South Florida Bulls1430724
UTSA Roadrunners73101131
NCAAF · South Florida Bulls at UTSA Roadrunners

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South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 8, 2026

Game time: October 8, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX

Article updated Oct 8, 7:27 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

UTSA is the pick to beat South Florida 24-20 on Thursday, October 8, with its sustained success at the Alamodome providing the strongest reason to favor the Roadrunners. South Florida’s scoring defense makes a comfortable home win less convincing. Under 50 (-110) is the strongest wager at the supplied SportsJaw price; the seven-point spread is a Pass.

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction and best bet

UTSA should win this American Conference matchup, but the better betting opportunity is Under 50 (-110). The Roadrunners’ home record supports the winner selection, while South Florida’s season-long defensive results and both teams’ recent offensive output point toward a game with fewer than 50 points.

The distinction matters at UTSA -7 (-103). Winning at home and covering a full touchdown require different judgments. A 24-20 forecast favors the Roadrunners outright and suggests South Florida could stay within the number, but the competing evidence makes the spread less attractive than the total.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Thursday, October 8, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. ET, 6:30 p.m. CT. This is a 2026 college football matchup.

Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas.

Broadcast: ESPN.

Records: South Florida Bulls 3-1; UTSA Roadrunners 4-1.

SportsJaw moneyline: South Florida +220; UTSA -260.

SportsJaw odds: South Florida Bulls +5.5 (-110); UTSA Roadrunners -5.5 (-110). Moneyline: South Florida Bulls +186; UTSA Roadrunners -220. Total: Over 49.5 (-115); Under 49.5 (-105).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

South Florida Bulls outlook

South Florida’s strongest asset is a defense allowing 14.6 points per game, ranked 19th nationally, and 312.4 yards per game, ranked 39th. Those season averages give the Bulls a credible route to a competitive road game even if their offense remains uneven.

The immediate concern is overall offensive production. South Florida accumulated only 27 points and 533 yards across its two most recent games, against Bowling Green and Temple. The Bulls lost 17-13 at home to Temple. That stretch raises questions about how much scoring help the defense can expect.

Michael Van Buren Jr. enters with 77 completions on 123 attempts for 896 yards, three passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He also has 80 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. His interception-free passing offers encouragement, although it should not be confused with a guarantee of clean possessions Thursday.

D.J. Crowther supplies another route to points, with 393 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 74 carries. Bryson Rodgers and Joshua Porter share the receiving lead at 240 yards apiece. Crowther’s production makes the running game an important part of South Florida’s chance to improve on its recent scoring.

UTSA Roadrunners outlook

UTSA has gone 35-5 at the Alamodome since 2020, including 25-1 at home against conference opponents. That sustained record is the clearest foundation for choosing the Roadrunners, though it says more about their ability to win here than their likely margin in this particular game.

The Roadrunners beat Rice 16-14 on October 3 in their conference opener. Their defense allowed 232 total yards and 88 passing yards while recording 10 tackles for loss and three sacks. It was a disruptive performance, but the two-point result also shows why a home victory need not become a comfortable cover.

Owen McCown has completed 68.2% of his passes for 1,010 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions through five games. Will Henderson III added 90 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against Rice. Those contributions give UTSA options, but the offense still faces a South Florida defense with strong season results.

Key matchup factors

The most consequential question is whether South Florida can keep UTSA’s passing game from creating separation. In the Bulls’ 55-23 victory on November 6, 2025, they held McCown to 200 passing yards and sacked him five times. That is relevant history with the same quarterback, but one prior meeting cannot carry the forecast for a new season.

The teams have split their two meetings, with UTSA winning 49-21 on November 17, 2023. Both past results featured substantial scoring, a useful counterweight to an Under recommendation built around current defensive performance.

SportsJaw’s spread consensus favors UTSA -7 (-103): the blended share is 55%, current member support is 60%, and qualified handicapper support is 64%. The consensus update is timestamped October 8 at 11:17 UTC. These are distinct measures of pick support, not UTSA’s probability of winning or covering.

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on South Florida +7 (-117) and UTSA -7 (-103). The projected four-point margin points toward the Bulls, but their recent offensive struggles make taking the points less persuasive than the score alone suggests.

UTSA’s home history and consensus backing pull in the other direction. South Florida’s defense is a reason to resist laying seven, not enough by itself to make the underdog an official wager. An exact seven-point UTSA victory would push either spread selection.

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners total prediction

Total recommendation: Under 50 (-110). This market has the most coherent case: South Florida combines strong scoring defense with a recent offensive slowdown, while UTSA comes off a game in which it allowed 14 points and scored 16.

The projected 44 points leave room below the supplied total, although that projection is an editorial judgment rather than a measured betting edge. McCown’s seven touchdown passes and the high-scoring series history are the main cautions. The current defensive evidence carries more weight in this forecast.

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: UTSA Roadrunners 24, South Florida Bulls 20. Confidence is medium. UTSA’s established home success supports the winner, while South Florida’s scoring defense is the strongest counterargument and the main reason to expect a close finish.

The single official SportsJaw wager is Under 50 (-110). Pass on the seven-point spread. The Roadrunners can justify the winner selection without needing to clear the larger margin demanded of a favorite laying a touchdown.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Bulls20

Roadrunners24

Projected winner UTSA RoadrunnersConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Total: Under 50 (-110)

Sources

  • USF AthleticsUSF Football Looks To Stay Unbeaten on the Road at UTSA
  • UTSA AthleticsUTSA to host South Florida in nationally televised Thursday tilt
#SouthFloridaBulls#UTSARoadrunners

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Bulls vs Roadrunners game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Bulls vs Roadrunners matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · South Florida Bulls+220 → +186Moved
  • Moneyline · UTSA Roadrunners-275 → -220Moved
  • Spread · South Florida Bulls+6.5 (+100) → +5.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · UTSA Roadrunners-6.5 (-122) → -5.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over56.5 (-114) → 49.5 (-115)Moved
  • Total · Under56.5 (-106) → 49.5 (-105)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

South Florida Bulls
3-1 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
UTSA Roadrunners
4-1 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-04T11:54:23.604Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-11-06UTSA Roadrunners 23 · South Florida Bulls 55
Final result

Matchup pick recap

UTSA Roadrunners defeated South Florida Bulls 31-24

UTSA Roadrunners defeated South Florida Bulls 31-24 on October 8, 2026, a 7-point decision in the series. UTSA Roadrunners' strongest period was the 3rd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 10-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded South Florida Bulls +5.5 (-110) spread, UTSA Roadrunners covered, while the 55 combined points finished over the recorded total of 49.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerUTSA RoadrunnersWin
  • SpreadPass on spread: South Florida Bulls +7 (-117) and UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-103)Pass
  • TotalTotal: Under 50 (-110)Loss

Tipster picks

  • CovergirlSpread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-110)Push
  • RcollinsSpread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-110)Push
  • CodexTotal · Under 50 (-110)Loss
  • AveragejoeSpread · South Florida Bulls +7 (-110)Push
  • WarbuczSpread · South Florida Bulls +7 (-110)Push
  • JeffjacksonTotal · Under 50 (-110)Loss
  • JwTotal · Under 50 (-110)Loss
  • JohnnywalkerSpread · South Florida Bulls +7 (-110)Push
  • JoeThomasSpread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-108)Push
  • JohnmiznerSpread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-108)Push
  • Leadpipe_LocksSpread · South Florida Bulls +7 (-110)Push
  • TweiskoffSpread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-108)Push
  • MikehuffSpread · South Florida Bulls +7 (-110)Push
  • StevedSpread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-108)Push
  • Barry713Spread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-108)Push
  • Roderick806Spread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-108)Push
  • KrockpicksSpread · South Florida Bulls +7 (-110)Push
  • Sarah_MillerSpread · UTSA Roadrunners -7 (-106)Push
  • Philly267Spread · South Florida Bulls +7 (-116)Push