SportsJaw
LeaderboardToday's GamesBest BetsOdds ComparisonConsensus PicksMake Picks
Login / Sign In
Today's GamesLatest PredictionsToday’s Best BetsOdds ComparisonConsensus PicksTeam PredictionsHead-to-Head MatchupsSJ CoinsAbout SportsJawContact UsLogin / Sign In
HomeMatchupsMake PicksLeaders
SportsJaw

The social platform for sports bettors.

Explore SportsJaw

  • Today’s Picks
  • Predictions
  • Best Bets
  • Leaderboard
  • Make Picks
  • Odds Comparison
  • Consensus Picks
  • Team Predictions
  • Head-to-Head
  • Game Briefing

Picks by Sport

  • NFL Picks
  • NCAAF Picks
  • NBA Picks
  • NCAAB Picks
  • MLB Picks
  • NHL Picks

About SportsJaw

  • How It Works
  • SJ Coins
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Contact Us

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

© 2026 SportsJaw. For entertainment purposes only. SportsJaw does not accept or place wagers.

  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Vanderbilt Commodores vs Florida Gators
Sat 4:00 PM ET
Vanderbilt Commodores logo
Vanderbilt
Commodores14
0-4-1
versus
Florida Gators logo
Florida
Gators38
2-2
Final
Team1234T
Vanderbilt Commodores707014
Florida Gators71471038
NCAAF · Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators

Your Picks on Vanderbilt vs Florida

Picks closed
Spread
Moneyline
Total

Vanderbilt vs Florida Set for Saturday as Gators Look To Take Advantage of Commodores' Struggles

Game time: October 7, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET

Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, FL

Article updated Oct 1, 6:36 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

5 and the total at 52. Last year, Vanderbilt upset the Gators, 31-24. Several of Vanderbilt's and Florida's players are questionable for this Saturday's matchup at 4:00 pm ET

Game outlook

5 and the total at 52. Last year, Vanderbilt upset the Gators, 31-24. Several of Vanderbilt's and Florida's players are questionable for this Saturday's matchup at 4:00 pm ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Game Info

When: Saturday, 10/7/2023 @ 4:00pm EST

Where: Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Stadium Commodores vs Gators Betting Odds Moneyline: Commodores +665 | Gators -1,100

Spread: Commodores +18 (-110) | Gators -18 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 52 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Florida will win straight-up is 92%.

Vanderbilt Commodores

The Vanderbilt Commodores outgained by a difference of 532-300 last week against the Missouri Tigers in an eventual 17-point road loss. Nonetheless, they've been relatively productive on offense (averaging 371.5 total yards per game, with 274.2 coming from the passing game). Sophomore QB AJ Swann has marshalled the offense with a completion percentage of 58.1, while senior WR Will Sheppard has led the receiving corps with 32 receptions for 443 yards and seven TDs. On the ground, the team is powered by junior RB Patrick Smith (57 carries for 238 yards and two scores) and freshman RB Sedrick Alexander (44 carries for 180 yards and three TDs).

On defense, the Commodores are allowing 408.8 total yards per game (108th) including 261.0 passing yards (111th) and 147.8 rushing yards (85th). Opponents have converted 50.7 percent of their third down attempts (125th) and scored on 86.3 percent of their red zone trips (86th).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Vanderbilt currently has a power ranking of 114, averaging 33.40 points per game (47th) while allowing 32.40 points (112th). In the overall standings, the Commodores are 2-4 (0-6 ATS).

Outgained 532-300 last week against Missouri Averaging 371.5 total yards per game Sophomore QB AJ Swann with a completion percentage of 58.1 Senior WR Will Sheppard leading the receiving corps with 32 receptions for 443 yards and seven TDs Allowing 408.8 total yards per game (108th) Opponents converting 50.7 percent of third down attempts Power ranking of 114, averaging 33.40 points per game (47th) 2-4 (0-6 ATS) in the overall standings

Florida Gators Analysis

On the road last week, the Gators were dominated by the Kentucky Wildcats with their running back Ray Davis rushing for a career-high 280 yards and four touchdowns. The Gators were unable to succeed with the ground game, managing only 69 yards on 29 attempts.

The Florida offense is ranked 94th in points per game (25.0), 69th in total yards (392.6), 57th in passing yards (247.0) and 81st in rushing yards (145.6). They have converted 26.5 percent of third-down attempts (126th) and 84.6 percent of red-zone trips (57th). Quarterback Graham Mertz has 1,220 passing yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. His top target is wide receiver Ricky Personall, who has 30 receptions for 419 yards and two touchdowns. Running backs Trevor Etienne (60 carries for 358 yards and two touchdowns) and Montrell Johnson Jr. (56 carries for 253 yards and three touchdowns) lead the ground game.

The Florida defense ranks 26th in points per game (17.4), 13th in total yards (275.4), 3rd in passing yards (144.0) and 60th in rushing yards (131.4). They have recorded seven sacks and one interception. Opponents have how converted 30.6 percent of third-down attempts (19th) and scored on 77.7 percent of red-zone trips (42nd).

Florida has a power ranking of 43 and is:

#78 for offense (scoring an average of 27.75 per game)

#18 for defense (giving up an average of 13.50 points per game)

3-2 (1-4 ATS) overall

Their last three matchups against Vanderbilt have gone in favour of the Gators with Vandy having a record of 2-1 (1-2

Florida wanting to Take Advantage of Vandy's Third-Down and Red Zone Struggles on Saturday

Florida's defensive prowess stands out this coming Saturday against Vanderbilt. With the Commodores being ranked low in passing yards, they may have problems when playing the Gators' third-down and red zone defenses, which are both ranked nationally. Clark Lea's indecisiveness between quarterbacks Seals and Swann, as well as Humphreys' ankle injury, further hinders the team's offensive capabilities. Florida will be looking to reclaim their time of possession and increase their offense with the reestablishment of their ground game. The Commodores are not faring well on third downs or red zone conversion, and the Gators are planning to use this to their advantage in the hopes of covering the spread.

Written by Mikehuff Published on 10/05/2023 Category: NCAAF Picks

About the Author: My Philosophy of "picking our battles and not the board" is what consistently gives me profit year over year. Join me this season for NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB hoops.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#VanderbiltCommodores#FloridaGators

Share this preview

Facebook X Reddit Email
SportsJaw logo
Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Commodores vs Gators archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Commodores vs Gators matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Vanderbilt Commodores+700 → +660Moved
  • Moneyline · Florida Gators-1,250 → -1,075Moved
  • Spread · Vanderbilt Commodores+18.5 (-110) → +18 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Florida Gators-18.5 (-110) → -18 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over55 (-110) → 50.75 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under55 (-110) → 50.75 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Vanderbilt Commodores
0-4-1 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Florida Gators
2-2 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-10-01T22:36:24.633Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

5 and the total at 52. Last year, Vanderbilt upset the Gators, 31-24. Several of Vanderbilt's and Florida's players are questionable for this Saturday's matchup at 4:00 pm ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Florida's defensive prowess stands out this coming Saturday against Vanderbilt. With the Commodores being ranked low in passing yards, they may have problems when playing the Gators' third-down and red zone defenses, which are both ranked nationally. Clark Lea's indecisiveness between quarterbacks Seals and Swann, as well as Humphreys' ankle injury, further hinders the team's offensive capabilities. Florida will be looking to reclaim their time of possession and increase their offense with the reestablishment of their ground game. The Commodores are not faring well on third downs or red zone conversion, and the Gators are planning to use this to their advantage in the hopes of covering the spread.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2022-11-19Florida Gators 24 · Vanderbilt Commodores 31
  • 2021-10-09Vanderbilt Commodores 0 · Florida Gators 42
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Florida Gators defeated Vanderbilt Commodores 38-14

Florida Gators defeated Vanderbilt Commodores 38-14 on October 7, 2023, a 24-point decision in the series. Florida Gators' strongest period was the 2nd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 14-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Vanderbilt Commodores +18 (-110) spread, Florida Gators covered, while the 52 combined points finished over the recorded total of 50.75.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • MiamimikeSpread · Florida Gators -18.5 (-110)Win
  • SfdanSpread · Florida Gators -18.5 (-110)Win
  • RainmanSpread · Florida Gators -18.5 (-110)Win
  • JohnmiznerSpread · Florida Gators -18.5 (-110)Win
  • JtphamSpread · Florida Gators -18.5 (-110)Win
  • CoversSpread · Florida Gators -18.5 (-110)Win
  • CoolioSpread · Vanderbilt Commodores +18 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioTotal · Over 51 (-110)Win
  • OddssharkSpread · Vanderbilt Commodores +18 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 51 (-110)Win
  • DouwannaSpread · Florida Gators -17.75 (-110)Win