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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Sat 3:30 PM ET
Purdue Boilermakers logo
Purdue
Boilermakers14
2-3
versus
Iowa Hawkeyes logo
Iowa
Hawkeyes20
4-1
Final
Team1234T
Purdue Boilermakers070714
Iowa Hawkeyes733720
NCAAF · Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes

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Purdue Boilermakers Look to Upset Iowa with McNamara Out

Game time: October 7, 2023 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Kinnick Stadium — Iowa City, IA

Article updated Oct 1, 6:36 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

This Saturday's matchup marks each team's second conference game this season. Purdue enters the matchup with a 2-3 overall record and a 2-3-0 record against the spread (ATS)

Game outlook

This Saturday's matchup marks each team's second conference game this season. Purdue enters the matchup with a 2-3 overall record and a 2-3-0 record against the spread (ATS) while the Iowa Hawkeyes enter with a 4-1 record and a 2-2-1 ATS. Iowa has won the past two meetings and is 4-2 against Purdue since 2017. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. EDT at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday.

Game Info

When: Saturday, 10/7/2023 @ 3:30pm EST

Where: Kinnick Stadium Stadium Boilermakers vs Hawkeyes Betting Odds Moneyline: Boilermakers +110 | Hawkeyes -130

Spread: Boilermakers +2.5 (-110) | Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 39 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Iowa will win straight-up is 57%.

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue is suffering from a defense that allows 398.2 yards per game, with 148.4 yards of that coming from the ground. Yet their 5 sacks last weekend demonstrates that progress is being made. The offense is inconsistent, with scores of 44, 35, 24, 20 and 17 so far. There is potential, however, with 399.0 yards on average per game and 150.2 yards per game on the ground. Tyrone Tracy Jr. leads the team in rushing yards and touchdowns while Hudson Card has attempted all the passes, completing 63.8% of them with five touchdowns and three interceptions. For Purdue to compete for the Big Ten West this season, they must focus on ending their drives with touchdowns more often than with field goals (3/5 on the season), punts and turnovers (8 giveaways, -2 turnover differential).

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Iowa Hawkeyes Analysis

It's homecoming weekend for Iowa, whose three best offensive performances scoring-wise have come in Kinnick Stadium. With offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz's job status (literally) dependent on how many points the Hawkeyes score, they'll be searching for a lot more on Saturday.

Iowa has a power ranking of 36 and is #105 in offense, scoring an average of 21.25 points per game; #27 in defense, allowing an average of 17.00 points per game; and has an overall record of 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS). Purdue went 1-2 (1-2 ATS) in their last 3 matchups against Iowa.

Concerns exist about the Iowa offense, which is averaging 240.8 yards per game. They mustered 76 yards of offense in their Big Ten opener against Penn State and 222 against Michigan State. Michigan transfer Cade McNamara has carried Iowa to a measly 133.8 passing yards per game, but his season is now over due to a torn ACL. On the ground, Iowa is averaging 3.5 yards per rush and 107.0 yards per game.

Two tight ends lead the team in receiving, continuing a tradition of strong tight end play in the program. Iowa's defense is allowing 320.8 yards per game, including more than 345 in their two conference games. However, they've limited the damage to 16.8 points per game. Iowa is limiting opposing quarterbacks to 4.7 yards per pass attempt and 182.6 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush.

Outside of the one loss, the Hawkeyes have done an excellent job and the expectation is for the Iowa defense to drag the team forward yet again. Iowa's defense isn't the most dominant in recent memory but they'll need to deliver just like the rest of them.

Purdue Should Take Advantage of Iowa's Injury-Riddled Offense to Secure a Win

Prior to the injury of Cade McNamara, Iowa's offense was performing below average compared to other Big Ten schools; they had the least total and passing yards, and the second fewest rushing yards. While the Hawkeyes must now rely on a likely downgrade at quarterback to move the ball, Purdue's offense has put up impressive yardage each week and should be expected to do the same against Iowa's defense, which has allowed 746 yards in their first two conference games. Therefore, the Boilermakers should be able to gain enough points to win, provided they protect the ball.

Written by Mtgoldstein Published on 10/05/2023 Category: NCAAF Picks

About the Author: Retired sports writer with the Houston Chronicle, now have turned my passion into sports betting and handicapping NBA, NFL, and most major sports. Join me this season for insider picks you can't get anywhere else.

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Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Boilermakers vs Hawkeyes archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Boilermakers vs Hawkeyes matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Purdue Boilermakers+140 → +107Moved
  • Moneyline · Iowa Hawkeyes-175 → -127Moved
  • Spread · Purdue Boilermakers+3.5 (-110) → +2.25 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Iowa Hawkeyes-3.5 (-110) → -2.25 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over41.5 (-110) → 38.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under41.5 (-110) → 38.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Purdue Boilermakers
2-3 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Iowa Hawkeyes
4-1 matchup record · 6-3-1 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-10-01T22:36:14.899Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Prior to the injury of Cade McNamara, Iowa's offense was performing below average compared to other Big Ten schools; they had the least total and passing yards, and the second fewest rushing yards. While the Hawkeyes must now rely on a likely downgrade at quarterback to move the ball, Purdue's offense has put up impressive yardage each week and should be expected to do the same against Iowa's defense, which has allowed 746 yards in their first two conference games. Therefore, the Boilermakers should be able to gain enough points to win, provided they protect the ball.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2022-11-05Iowa Hawkeyes 24 · Purdue Boilermakers 3
  • 2021-10-16Purdue Boilermakers 24 · Iowa Hawkeyes 7
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Iowa Hawkeyes defeated Purdue Boilermakers 20-14

Iowa Hawkeyes defeated Purdue Boilermakers 20-14 on October 7, 2023, a 6-point decision in the series. Iowa Hawkeyes' strongest period was the 1st quarter, when it outscored its opponent 7-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Purdue Boilermakers +2.25 (-110) spread, Iowa Hawkeyes covered, while the 34 combined points finished under the recorded total of 38.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • HopkinspicksSpread · Purdue Boilermakers +3 (-110)Loss
  • JohnmiznerSpread · Iowa Hawkeyes -3 (-110)Win
  • JtphamSpread · Purdue Boilermakers +3 (-110)Loss
  • JtphamTotal · Over 41.5 (-110)Loss
  • CoversSpread · Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110)Win
  • CoolioSpread · Purdue Boilermakers +2.5 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioTotal · Over 38.5 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkSpread · Purdue Boilermakers +2.5 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 38.5 (-110)Loss