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  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Sam Houston St. Bearkats vs Liberty Flames
Thu 7:00 PM ET
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NCAAF · Sam Houston St. Bearkats at Liberty Flames

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Liberty Favored to Take Down Struggling Sam Houston State in Conference USA Matchup

Game time: October 5, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Williams Stadium (VA) — Lynchburg, VA

Article updated Oct 1, 6:35 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

This Thursday, the Sam Houston State Bearkats will take on the Liberty Flames in an intriguing Conference USA matchup. Liberty is currently undefeated in conference play,

Game outlook

This Thursday, the Sam Houston State Bearkats will take on the Liberty Flames in an intriguing Conference USA matchup. Liberty is currently undefeated in conference play, while Sam Houston State is winless; the betting line is in Liberty's favor at -18.5. The game will kick off at 7:00 ET from Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA.

Game Info

When: Thursday, 10/5/2023 @ 7:00pm EST

Where: Williams Stadium Stadium Bearkats vs Flames Betting Odds Moneyline: Bearkats +650 | Flames -1,005

Spread: Bearkats +18.5 (-110) | Flames -18.5 (-110)

Total: Over/Under 46.5 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that Liberty will win straight-up is 91%.

Sam Houston St. Bearkats

The Sam Houston State Bearkats have had a disappointing start to the season, currently starting with an 0-4 record in their 10th year under head coach K.C. Keeler. Most recently, the Bearkats dropped an overtime affair at home to conference opponent Jacksonville State, losing 35-28 after allowing a game-tying touchdown with only 13 seconds remaining. Leading the offense has been senior Keegan Shoemaker who has completed 56.5% of his passes for 476 yards and only 2-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio so far. The ground game has not been much help either, with leading rusher John Gentry accumulating 133 yards on 45 carries (3.0 YPC). The defense has been the main bright spot, currently ranked 55th in the country for allowing an average 25.0 points per game. However, Sam Houston State has given up game totals of 73 points over the last two weeks to Houston and Jacksonville State. In terms of yardage, the Bearkats are 49th, allowing 361.8 yards per contest.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Liberty Flames Analysis

Hugh Freeze put Liberty's football program on the map during his tenure at the school (2019-2,022), leading them to their first-ever ranking in school history. Now, with new head coach Jamey Chadwell at the helm, the Flames have continued their success in 2023. Kaidon Salter is leading the offense and is completing 57.6% of his passes for 919 yards and an 11/1 TD/INT ratio. He is also Liberty's second-best rusher with 268 yards (47 carries, 5.7 YPC). Quinton Cooley (323 yards, 6.1 YPC) and Billy Lucas (244 yards, 6.3 YPC) are the two other standouts in the running game. The Flames' defense is particularly impressive as their allowing just 18.5 points per game, the 24th-best mark in the country. Likewise, they concede an average of 310.8 yards per game, ranking them 18th overall. #16 for offense (scoring an average of 40.00 per game) #33 for defense (giving up an average of 18.50 points per game) 4-0 (4-0 ATS) overall

Liberty Set to Take Down Struggling Sam Houston State with Dynamic Offense and Strong Defense

Liberty has been performing well and making strides towards national rankings, while Sam Houston State has been struggling to secure a game win. Liberty has a dynamic offense, notably three different runners with over 240 yards and Kaidon Salter, who has achieved 919 yards through the air and 11/1 TD/INT ratio. Sam Houston State's defense has allowed 73 points over their last two games, leaving them at a disadvantage. Liberty has proven itself to be well-rounded and successful, with a 4-0 ATS record. I believe the Flames will build upon their lead and win by a large margin.

Written by Mrmister Published on 10/03/2023 Category: NCAAF Picks

About the Author: I've been betting on sports my whole life. I actually placed 4th in the Golden Nugget contest in Vegas in 2005, and placed 3rd in the Reserve Casino Contest in Vegas in 2002. Still enjoy handicapping and glad I found this platform to share my picks.

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Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
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Pick on the Total

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#SamHoustonStBearkats#LibertyFlames

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Bearkats vs Flames archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Bearkats vs Flames matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Sam Houston St. Bearkats+850 → +800Moved
  • Moneyline · Liberty Flames-1,667 → -1,600Moved
  • Spread · Sam Houston St. Bearkats+17.5 (-110) → +21.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Liberty Flames-17.5 (-110) → -21.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over47.5 (-110) → 46.25 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under47.5 (-110) → 46.25 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Sam Houston St. Bearkats
0-4 matchup record · 5-1-1 ATS · 3-3-1 O/U
Last 7 completed games on file
Liberty Flames
4-0 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2023-10-01T22:35:55.260Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

Final result

Matchup pick recap

Liberty Flames defeated Sam Houston St. Bearkats 21-16

Liberty Flames defeated Sam Houston St. Bearkats 21-16 on October 5, 2023, a 5-point decision in the series. Liberty Flames' strongest period was the 2nd quarter, when it outscored its opponent 14-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded Sam Houston St. Bearkats +21.5 (-110) spread, Sam Houston St. Bearkats covered, while the 37 combined points finished under the recorded total of 46.25.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • BjenkinsSpread · Sam Houston St. Bearkats +17.5 (-110)Win
  • ThetotalerSpread · Sam Houston St. Bearkats +17.5 (-110)Win
  • HopkinspicksSpread · Liberty Flames -18.5 (-110)Loss
  • DerekFisherSpread · Sam Houston St. Bearkats +18.5 (-110)Win
  • HitmanhartTotal · Under 47.5 (-110)Win
  • ryry663Moneyline · Liberty Flames -1,100Win
  • ryry663Spread · Liberty Flames -19 (-110)Loss
  • ryry663Total · Over 45.5 (-110)Loss
  • JohnTharpMoneyline · Liberty Flames -1,400Win
  • JohnTharpTotal · Over 46 (-110)Loss
  • DouwannaSpread · Liberty Flames -21 (-110)Loss
  • CoolioSpread · Sam Houston St. Bearkats +21 (-110)Win
  • CoolioTotal · Over 46.5 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkSpread · Sam Houston St. Bearkats +21 (-110)Win
  • OddssharkTotal · Over 46.5 (-110)Loss