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NCAAF PicksSat 12:00 PM ET
UAB Blazers logo
UAB
Blazers
4-3
versus
South Florida Bulls logo
South Florida
Bulls
4-2
NCAAF · UAB Blazers at South Florida Bulls

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UAB vs South Florida consensus picks

UAB Blazers20%
80%South Florida Bulls
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UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls Predictions October 31, 2026

Game time: October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

Venue: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL

Article updated Oct 26, 9:53 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

South Florida will beat UAB, with a projected score of South Florida 27, UAB 17. The strongest matchup favors D.J. Crowther against a Blazers defense allowing 190.3 rushing yards per game, backed by the Bulls’ strong red-zone scoring rate. South Florida -7.5 (-110) is an actionable spread wager with medium confidence. The total of 42.5 is a Pass.

UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls prediction and best bet

South Florida -7.5 (-110) is the best bet because the Bulls have a credible way to attack UAB without relying on its strongest defensive area. Crowther’s rushing production gives South Florida an alternative to challenging a pass defense that leads FBS in yards allowed per game.

The red-zone matchup reinforces that advantage. South Florida scores on 95.5% of its opportunities, while UAB has allowed points on every opponent trip. Those percentages include field goals, so they are not a guarantee of touchdowns or a comfortable cover. Still, paired with South Florida’s scoring defense, they support a projected 27-17 victory. UAB’s passing-yardage defense keeps confidence at medium.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: UAB at South Florida, 2026 college football, American Conference.

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 2026, noon EDT. TV: ESPNU.

Records: UAB Blazers 4-3; South Florida Bulls 4-2.

SportsJaw moneyline: UAB +250; South Florida -300.

SportsJaw odds: UAB Blazers +7.5 (-110); South Florida Bulls -7.5 (-109). Moneyline: UAB Blazers +245; South Florida Bulls -300. Total: Over 42.5 (-110); Under 42.5 (-110).

SportsJaw total: Over 42.5 (-110); Under 42.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

UAB Blazers outlook

UAB’s defensive profile has a pronounced split. The Blazers allow 316.3 total yards per game, 31st in FBS, and a nation-leading 126.0 passing yards. On the ground, however, they surrender 190.3 yards per game, ranking 121st. That combination makes their overall yardage ranking less reassuring against Crowther than it might initially appear.

The passing number is still meaningful counterevidence to a South Florida cover. It gives UAB a defensive strength against Michael Van Buren Jr., although passing yards alone do not tell us how efficiently opponents throw or how often they choose to run. Linebacker Muaaz Byard has recorded at least 10 tackles in four games, one of two American players with that distinction.

Ryder Burton has 1,184 passing yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions, completing 54.5% of his attempts. His October 15 performance against East Carolina was more encouraging: 262 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions on 19-of-37 passing. Roderick Robinson II contributes 436 rushing yards on 101 carries.

Burton’s recent ball security offers a route to a competitive game. The challenge is repeating it against South Florida’s scoring defense while improving on UAB’s 0-3 road record.

South Florida Bulls outlook

South Florida’s strongest defensive credential is the scoreboard: 15.1 points allowed per game, 10th in FBS. The Bulls also allow 325.1 total yards per game, ranking 38th, and 181.0 passing yards, ranking 25th. UAB allows fewer total yards, but South Florida’s low scoring allowance is a substantial reason to favor the Bulls.

Van Buren has completed 64.2% of his passes for 1,292 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. In the October 17 win over Kent State, he completed 22 of 27 attempts for 193 yards and one touchdown without an interception. South Florida won 29-2. His season accuracy and interception record compare favorably with Burton’s, though UAB presents a different passing challenge.

Crowther has 518 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 105 carries. His production is especially relevant against UAB’s uneven defensive profile. A successful ground attack would let the Bulls pursue their clearest matchup advantage without asking Van Buren to carry the offense.

Receiver availability adds uncertainty. Covers’ October 26 report lists A. Branch and J. Alexis as questionable with undisclosed injuries. Neither is confirmed out. Their uncertain status tempers enthusiasm for the passing matchup, without supporting a specific adjustment to expected scoring.

Key matchup factors

The critical sequence is whether South Florida can move the ball on the ground and then turn scoring opportunities into enough points to separate. Red-zone scoring rates favor the Bulls, but the distinction between three points and seven matters greatly when laying more than a touchdown.

The October 26 SportsJaw consensus update, at 13:46 UTC, favored USF -300 at 75%. Its combined count represents 450 of 600 modeled equivalent selections, not 600 observed sportsbook tickets or users. That is moneyline sentiment, not a 75% forecast of victory or evidence that South Florida will cover. The spread recommendation rests on the rushing matchup and defensive production, with UAB’s passing defense the principal counterweight.

UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls spread prediction

Spread recommendation: South Florida Bulls -7.5 (-110). The projected 10-point margin offers a modest cushion over the supplied line. Crowther faces a vulnerable rushing defense, and South Florida’s 15.1 points allowed per game strengthens the case that the Bulls can create separation.

UAB +7.5 (-110) remains a credible opposing position: a seven-point defeat would cover, and its pass defense could frustrate South Florida. The favorite needs more than simply winning. The ground-game advantage makes that additional margin plausible enough for a medium-confidence wager, rather than relying on the score projection alone.

UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 42.5 (-110) and Under 42.5 (-110). The projected 44 points sit slightly above the line, but that small difference is not enough to recommend the Over.

South Florida’s scoring defense and UAB’s low passing-yardage allowance favor restraint. The opposing case comes from UAB’s rushing vulnerability and the red-zone matchup. Neither scoring percentage distinguishes touchdowns from field goals, an important limitation for this market. With plausible paths to both a lower-scoring game and a total above 42.5, the spread is the stronger wager.

UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls projected score

Game forecast: South Florida 27, UAB 17. The Bulls’ rushing opportunity, Van Buren’s interception-free season and a defense allowing 15.1 points per game form the strongest combined case. The projection assumes South Florida gets enough from Crowther to avoid making this primarily a test of its passing offense.

The strongest counterargument is UAB’s national lead in passing yards allowed, reinforced by Burton’s turnover-free outing against East Carolina. Those strengths could keep the margin within one possession. South Florida remains the projected winner with medium confidence. The single official SportsJaw wager is the spread, South Florida Bulls -7.5 (-110). Both sides of the 42.5 total remain a Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Blazers17

Bulls27

Projected winner South Florida BullsConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Spread: South Florida Bulls -7.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 42.5 (-110) and Under 42.5 (-110)

Sources

  • American ConferenceAmerican Conference Week Eight Football Postgame Notebook
  • CoversCollege Football Injuries 2026-2027 - Full Injury Report for Oct 26, 2026
  • Winnipeg Free Press / The Associated PressSouth Florida squares off against UAB in AAC play

SportsJaw Blazers vs Bulls game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Blazers vs Bulls matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · UAB Blazers+250 → +245Moved
  • Moneyline · South Florida Bulls-300 → -300Unchanged
  • Spread · UAB Blazers+7.5 (-110) → +7.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Spread · South Florida Bulls-7.5 (-110) → -7.5 (-109)Moved
  • Total · Over41.5 (-110) → 42.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under41.5 (-110) → 42.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

UAB Blazers
4-3 matchup record · 4-5-1 ATS · 2-8-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
South Florida Bulls
4-2 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-26T13:53:56.943Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Receiver availability adds uncertainty. Covers’ October 26 report lists A. Branch and J. Alexis as questionable with undisclosed injuries. Neither is confirmed out. Their uncertain status tempers enthusiasm for the passing matchup, without supporting a specific adjustment to expected scoring.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-11-22South Florida Bulls 48 · UAB Blazers 18
  • 2024-10-19UAB Blazers 25 · South Florida Bulls 35
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