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NCAAF PicksSat 7:45 PM ET
Missouri Tigers logo
Missouri
Tigers
5-2
versus
Arkansas Razorbacks logo
Arkansas
Razorbacks
3-4
NCAAF · Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

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Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Predictions October 31, 2026

Game time: October 31, 2026 at 7:45 PM ET

Venue: Razorback Stadium — Fayetteville, AR

Article updated Oct 27, 11:39 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Missouri will beat Arkansas, with a projected score of Missouri Tigers 30, Arkansas Razorbacks 20. The Tigers' stronger offensive production meets a Razorbacks defense allowing opponents to convert 42.9% of third downs, giving Missouri a promising route to sustained drives. Missouri -10 (-108) and the total of 49 offer too little separation for an actionable wager. The official recommendation is Pass.

Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks prediction and best bet

Missouri gets the winner pick because its season profile offers more ways to generate offense. The Tigers average 430.3 yards and 31.1 points per game; Arkansas averages 343.0 yards and 21.0 points. Missouri also allows fewer points, conceding 19.6 per game compared with Arkansas's 26.7.

Those advantages support a road victory, but laying 10 requires more conviction about the margin. Missouri scores on only 75.0% of its red-zone trips and lost 31-3 at Ole Miss on October 17. Arkansas has enough counterevidence to make the spread uncomfortable. The forecast is Missouri 30, Arkansas 20, with medium confidence in the winner. The best betting decision is Pass.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks, Saturday, October 31, in the 2026 college football season.

Kickoff and broadcast: 7:45 p.m. EDT on SEC Network. Arkansas is hosting its homecoming game.

Records: Missouri Tigers 5-2; Arkansas Razorbacks 3-4.

SportsJaw odds: Missouri Tigers -10 (-108); Arkansas Razorbacks +10 (-110). Moneyline: Missouri Tigers -373; Arkansas Razorbacks +294. Total: Over 49.5 (-110); Under 49.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 49 (-110); Under 49 (-110).

SportsJaw moneyline: Missouri -375; Arkansas +300. These prices make Missouri the favorite, while the spread asks the Tigers to win by more than 10 for a winning favorite ticket.

Missouri Tigers outlook

Missouri averages 268.3 passing yards and 162.0 rushing yards per game. Austin Simmons has completed 63.2% of his passes for 1,773 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. That production gives the Tigers a passing threat to complement Jamal Roberts, who leads the SEC with 867 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 167 carries. Roberts also has 13 catches for 105 yards.

Against an Arkansas defense allowing 144.7 rushing yards per game, Roberts offers a plausible route to favorable down-and-distance situations. Missouri converts 41.4% of third downs, so keeping the full offense available should matter more than simply chasing explosive plays. Its plus-five turnover margin, ranked 20th in FBS, is another positive, although repeating that advantage is no guarantee.

The warning comes from October 17. Simmons threw for 339 yards on 25-for-44 passing with one interception at Ole Miss, yet Missouri scored only three points. Roberts gained 39 yards on 20 attempts. Moving the ball and finishing possessions are different challenges, and Missouri's red-zone scoring rate ranks 123rd nationally. That weakness matters especially when evaluating a double-digit spread.

Arkansas Razorbacks outlook

Arkansas averages 231.4 passing yards and 111.6 rushing yards per game. K.J. Jackson has completed 60.9% of his passes for 1,444 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. His October 17 performance against Vanderbilt supplies a concrete reason to expect resistance: Jackson completed 21 of 31 passes for 251 yards, added 58 rushing yards and scored a rushing touchdown in a 31-21 victory.

Chris Marshall's status matters to that passing attack. He leads Arkansas with 43 catches, 633 yards and two touchdowns but left the Vanderbilt game in the second quarter and did not return. In the October 27 report, coach Ryan Silverfield expected Marshall to be available against Missouri. That expectation helps Arkansas's outlook, though it falls short of confirmed availability.

There is also uncertainty at center. Caden Kitler appeared as the starter on Monday's depth chart after Kash Courtney started against Vanderbilt. Silverfield said Kitler had been playing through an injury and the starting decision remained unresolved. Defensively, Arkansas allows 357.7 yards per game. Its difficulty ending possessions puts pressure on Jackson and the offense to sustain enough drives to keep pace.

Key matchup factors

The most useful matchup indicator is Arkansas's third-down defense. Opponents convert 42.9% of their attempts, placing the Razorbacks 112th nationally. Missouri's 41.4% offensive conversion rate suggests an opportunity to extend possessions, although those season percentages are not a forecast of Saturday's exact success rate.

Missouri's rushing defense presents another obstacle for Arkansas, allowing 104.0 yards per game. There is a meaningful exception: Ole Miss runners Kewan Lacy and Makhi Frazier gained 122 and 101 yards, respectively, against the Tigers on October 17. Arkansas can take encouragement from that result, but its own 111.6-yard rushing average makes a similarly productive ground game a demanding expectation.

Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks spread prediction

Pass on Missouri Tigers -10 (-108) and Arkansas Razorbacks +10 (-110). Missouri's advantages in scoring production and points allowed justify the winner pick, but the projected 10-point margin would push either spread.

The case for Arkansas keeping it close rests on Jackson's demonstrated mobility, Marshall's potential return and Missouri's difficulty finishing drives. Missouri could cover if Roberts rebounds and the Tigers capitalize on extended possessions. Neither scenario has enough weight to justify a wager at these prices. A projected Missouri victory does not make the favorite an automatic spread selection.

Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks total prediction

Pass on Over 49 (-110) and Under 49 (-110). The projected 50 points sit just above the total, but that one-point difference is too fragile to treat as an edge.

Missouri's 31.1-point scoring average and Arkansas's 31-point performance against Vanderbilt give the Over a reasonable scoring path. The Under has its own case through Missouri's 19.6 points allowed per game and its red-zone inefficiency. Marshall's uncertain availability adds another variable for Arkansas's offense. Neither direction merits an official recommendation simply because the score forecast lands near 49.

Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks projected score

Projected score: Missouri Tigers 30, Arkansas Razorbacks 20. Missouri's combination of Roberts on the ground and Simmons through the air should produce enough offense to win. Arkansas's third-down defense offers a way for the Tigers to maintain possessions without requiring every drive to feature a big gain.

The strongest counterargument is Missouri's Ole Miss performance, which exposed vulnerabilities in both its rushing attack and rushing defense. Jackson's Vanderbilt outing also gives Arkansas a credible route to a closer finish. Confidence in Missouri winning is medium, reflecting a supported but ordinary edge. Both the spread and total remain passes, and the single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Tigers30

Razorbacks20

Projected winner Missouri TigersConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Missouri Tigers -10 (-108) and Arkansas Razorbacks +10 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Winnipeg Free Press / Associated PressSEC matchup features No. 23 Missouri against Arkansas
  • SWARK TodaySilverfield talks Missouri, updates injury report
  • Arkansas RazorbacksRoberts talks defense before showdown with #23 Missouri

SportsJaw Tigers vs Razorbacks game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Tigers vs Razorbacks matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Missouri Tigers-349 → -373Moved
  • Moneyline · Arkansas Razorbacks+349 → +294Moved
  • Spread · Missouri Tigers-9.5 (-130) → -10 (-108)Moved
  • Spread · Arkansas Razorbacks+9.5 (-102) → +10 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over49.5 (-110) → 49.5 (-110)Unchanged
  • Total · Under49.5 (-110) → 49.5 (-110)Unchanged

ATS and O/U trends

Missouri Tigers
5-2 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Arkansas Razorbacks
3-4 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-28T03:39:24.172Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

There is also uncertainty at center. Caden Kitler appeared as the starter on Monday's depth chart after Kash Courtney started against Vanderbilt. Silverfield said Kitler had been playing through an injury and the starting decision remained unresolved. Defensively, Arkansas allows 357.7 yards per game. Its difficulty ending possessions puts pressure on Jackson and the offense to sustain enough drives to keep pace.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-11-29Missouri Tigers 31 · Arkansas Razorbacks 17
  • 2024-11-30Arkansas Razorbacks 21 · Missouri Tigers 28
  • 2023-11-24Missouri Tigers 48 · Arkansas Razorbacks 14
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