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NCAAF PicksSat 7:30 PM ET
Ohio St. Buckeyes logo
Ohio St.
Buckeyes
5-1
versus
USC Trojans logo
USC
Trojans
6-2
NCAAF · Ohio St. Buckeyes at USC Trojans

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Ohio St. vs USC consensus picks

Ohio St. Buckeyes87%
13%USC Trojans
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Ohio St. Buckeyes vs USC Trojans Predictions October 31, 2026

Game time: October 31, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum — Los Angeles, CA

Article updated Oct 25, 11:40 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Ohio State will beat USC, 24-20, in the October 31 matchup, with the teams’ October 19 ranking gap supplying the strongest, though limited, reason to favor the Buckeyes. Julian Sayin’s reported indefinite absence and Luke Fahey’s expected first start narrow that advantage considerably. Neither the supplied spread nor total offers a strong enough case for an actionable wager. The official recommendation is Pass.

Ohio St. Buckeyes vs USC Trojans prediction and best bet

Ohio State is the pick to win, but confidence is low. The Buckeyes were No. 3 and USC No. 16 in Ohio State’s October 19 announcement. That dated ranking comparison gives Ohio State a modest starting point for the forecast, not a guarantee that its advantage survives a major quarterback change.

The October 20 report identifying Fahey as the expected starter makes a narrow victory more reasonable than a comfortable road cover. His limited passing results include both touchdowns and interceptions, leaving room for very different outcomes. Ohio State 24, USC 20 is the forecast; Pass is the best bet. USC’s points and the Under deserve consideration separately, but neither earns an official wager.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Ohio State at USC, 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California. USC announced the sellout October 22.

Broadcast: NBC.

Quarterback: The October 20 On3 / Lettermen Row report identified Luke Fahey as Ohio State’s expected first-time starter.

SportsJaw odds: Ohio St. Buckeyes -6.5 (-117); USC Trojans +6.5 (-111). Moneyline: Ohio St. Buckeyes -233; USC Trojans +186. Total: Over 50.5 (-147); Under 50.5 (-111).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Ohio St. Buckeyes outlook

Ohio State’s central issue is the quarterback transition. According to On3 / Lettermen Row’s October 20 reporting, Ryan Day said Julian Sayin was out indefinitely with an undisclosed injury. The program was preparing for him to miss the regular season and postseason. The report said he was injured on a sack against Indiana and did not return after leaving the field.

Day said Tavien St. Clair and Fahey would receive first-team repetitions that week. The same report identified Fahey as the expected first-time starter at USC. That distinction matters: an expectation in the October 20 report is not a confirmed game-day starting assignment.

Fahey had appeared in three games during 2026, completing 9 of 13 passes for 202 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. There is encouraging production in that line, but 13 attempts offer only a brief look at his passing. The interceptions also complicate any assumption that the transition will be smooth.

For this forecast, Ohio State’s route is to get enough production from its replacement quarterback without costly mistakes. That is a conditional matchup judgment, not an established strength. The evidence favors keeping the winning margin modest and the confidence low.

USC Trojans outlook

USC’s clearest documented advantage is the setting. Its October 22 announcement said the Ohio State game was sold out, making it the Trojans’ second sold-out home game of the 2026 season. A road debut in that environment adds a plausible challenge for Ohio State’s expected starter, although crowd size alone says little about how USC will execute.

The Trojans were No. 16 in the October 19 matchup announcement. That supplies some context for treating USC as a credible opponent, but it is a dated ranking rather than a measurement of its offense or defense entering kickoff. The home setting strengthens the case for a competitive game without settling which team should cover.

USC leads the series 13-10-1, and Ohio State lists this as the schools’ 25th meeting. Their previous meeting was the 2017 Cotton Bowl. Those facts belong in the matchup’s background; the long interval makes the series record a weak reason to select a present-day winner.

The tactical opportunity is to force difficult decisions from Ohio State’s replacement quarterback. Whether USC can consistently create those situations remains uncertain. Its upset case rests on the visitor’s personnel disruption and home field, rather than a demonstrated statistical advantage in this matchup.

Key matchup factors

The ranking comparison and the quarterback news pull in opposite directions. Ohio State’s higher October 19 ranking favors the Buckeyes, while the subsequent report about Sayin makes that comparison less reassuring. The forecast gives Ohio State a slight edge, with substantial room for USC to overturn it.

Fahey’s two interceptions matter beyond the possibility of lost possessions. Turnovers could also give USC favorable scoring opportunities, so quarterback uncertainty is not automatically an argument for a low total. His two touchdown passes provide another reason to resist assuming the offense will stall. The supplied SportsJaw consensus contains no market selections, leaving no community leader or qualified-handicapper pick to add to either case.

Ohio St. Buckeyes vs USC Trojans spread prediction

Pass on Ohio State -6.5 (-413) and USC +6.5 (-127). The forecast has Ohio State winning by four, which would put USC inside the spread. That makes the Trojans the projection’s direction, but a tentative margin is not enough to justify paying -127.

Ohio State’s price is particularly demanding for a team facing this quarterback uncertainty. Backing USC would require greater confidence in its ability to exploit that change. With limited evidence about the Trojans’ current performance, neither spread offers a sufficiently persuasive wager.

Ohio St. Buckeyes vs USC Trojans total prediction

Pass on Over 51.5 (-135) and Under 51.5 (-130). Ohio State 24, USC 20 produces 44 points, making Under the forecast’s direction. The concern is how much weight that scoring estimate can bear without current scoring and defensive statistics for both teams.

An inexperienced starter could lose scoring chances through mistakes, but interceptions could also help USC score. Fahey’s touchdown production keeps another outcome in play. The gap between 44 and 51.5 is worth examining, yet the evidence behind the estimate is too fragile to recommend Under at -130.

Ohio St. Buckeyes vs USC Trojans projected score

Game forecast: Ohio State 24, USC 20. The Buckeyes get the nod from the dated ranking comparison, with the expected quarterback change keeping the projected margin below a touchdown. This is a low-confidence editorial forecast, not a claim of a measured four-point advantage.

The strongest counterargument is straightforward: USC hosts an Ohio State team preparing to replace Sayin, with Fahey’s experience limited to three appearances in the cited report. That could be enough to swing a close game. Still, the final winner is Ohio State. Both spread selections and both total directions remain Pass at their supplied prices. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Buckeyes24

Trojans20

Projected winner Ohio St. BuckeyesConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Ohio State -6.5 (-413) and USC +6.5 (-127).

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Ohio State AthleticsKickoff Time at USC Announced for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
  • USC AthleticsUSC Football Game Versus Ohio State Officially Sold Out
  • On3 / Lettermen RowJulian Sayin out ‘indefinitely’ for Buckeyes

SportsJaw Buckeyes vs Trojans game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Buckeyes vs Trojans matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Ohio St. Buckeyes-350 → -233Moved
  • Moneyline · USC Trojans+260 → +186Moved
  • Spread · Ohio St. Buckeyes-8.5 (-110) → -6.5 (-117)Moved
  • Spread · USC Trojans+8.5 (-110) → +6.5 (-111)Moved
  • Total · Over54.5 (-118) → 50.5 (-147)Moved
  • Total · Under54.5 (-102) → 50.5 (-111)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Ohio St. Buckeyes
5-1 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
USC Trojans
6-2 matchup record · 2-8-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-25T15:40:57.968Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Ohio State’s central issue is the quarterback transition. According to On3 / Lettermen Row’s October 20 reporting, Ryan Day said Julian Sayin was out indefinitely with an undisclosed injury. The program was preparing for him to miss the regular season and postseason. The report said he was injured on a sack against Indiana and did not return after leaving the field.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

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