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NCAAF PicksSat 7:30 PM ET
Texas Tech Red Raiders logo
Texas Tech
Red Raiders
4-0
versus
Colorado Buffaloes logo
Colorado
Buffaloes
2-2
NCAAF · TXTECH at COLO

Your Picks on Texas Tech vs Colorado

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Texas Tech vs Colorado consensus picks

TXTECH75%
25%COLO

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Colorado Buffaloes Predictions October 3, 2026

Game time: October 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Folsom Field — Boulder, CO

Article updated Sep 28, 1:17 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Texas Tech will beat Colorado 31-17 in the Oct. 3 matchup. The Red Raiders' balanced offense gets the edge against a Buffaloes team that struggled to sustain possessions at Baylor. Hammond's three interceptions last week complicate the case for a comfortable win, however. Neither Texas Tech -13.5 (-110) nor the 50.5 total offers a convincing wager. The official SportsJaw recommendation is Pass.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Colorado Buffaloes prediction and best bet

Texas Tech is the pick because its latest performance offers a stronger combination of rushing and passing production. The Red Raiders gained 470 yards in their Sept. 26 victory over Sam Houston, including 219 on the ground. Colorado managed 363 yards at Baylor but scored on only three of its 15 possessions. That gap between moving the ball and completing scoring drives favors Texas Tech.

The best bet is Pass. A 31-17 forecast barely clears Texas Tech -13.5 (-110), and last week's turnovers make that margin vulnerable. Colorado's passing production also deserves respect. There is enough here to select a winner with medium confidence, but neither the spread nor total presents a compelling betting edge.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Texas Tech at Colorado, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026, in the 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET, equivalent to 6:30 p.m. CT.

Location and television: Boulder, Colorado; FOX.

Records: Texas Tech is 4-0. Colorado is 2-2 overall and 0-1 in Big 12 play.

SportsJaw spread: Texas Tech -13.5 (-110); Colorado +13.5 (-110).

SportsJaw total: Over 50.5 (-110); Under 50.5 (-110). Both directions carry the same supplied price. Moneyline: Texas Tech -581; Colorado +406.

Texas Tech Red Raiders outlook

Texas Tech beat Sam Houston 49-14 on Sept. 26, outgaining its opponent 470-269. Its 251 passing yards and 219 rushing yards give the forecast a concrete offensive foundation. Production in both areas suggests Texas Tech has options if one part of the attack stalls, although that single performance should not be treated as a guarantee against Colorado.

Will Hammond's afternoon captured both the upside and the concern. He completed 17 of 29 passes for 224 yards and scored on a 23-yard run, but he also threw three interceptions. The rushing touchdown added another scoring route; the interceptions show why a productive offense can still leave a large spread exposed.

Cameron Dickey scored twice on the ground, while Austin Romaine returned two interceptions for touchdowns. Those defensive scores are essential context for the 49-point result. Forecasting another offensive breakthrough solely from that final score would overstate what the offense supplied.

Texas Tech's winning case rests on repeating its offensive balance while reducing mistakes. Its covering case asks for more: enough separation to absorb a stalled drive or a turnover. The Sam Houston result supports the former more comfortably than the latter.

Colorado Buffaloes outlook

Colorado's 23-13 loss at Baylor on Sept. 26 contained a better yardage performance than the score suggests. The Buffaloes outgained Baylor 363-337 and threw for 280 yards. That passing output is the strongest reason to expect Colorado to remain competitive if Texas Tech makes mistakes.

Joseph Williams caught 11 passes for 127 yards. Isaac Wilson entered in the second half and completed 12 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown. Their production gives the Buffaloes something tangible to build on, without treating Wilson's relief appearance as confirmation of his role against Texas Tech.

The problem was sustaining possessions. Colorado converted 3 of 15 third downs and neither of its two fourth-down attempts. Baylor forced eight punts, and 12 of Colorado's 15 drives ended without points. The Buffaloes also finished with only 83 rushing yards, leaving the passing game to supply most of their yardage.

Colorado did assemble a 12-play, 95-yard touchdown drive that tied the game at 13 early in the fourth quarter. Baylor then scored the final 10 points. That drive shows Colorado can execute over a long field; the broader possession results explain why the forecast still favors Texas Tech.

Key matchup factors

Possession quality matters more here than last week's scoring gap. Texas Tech's defensive touchdowns boosted its final score, while Colorado's yardage advantage over Baylor concealed repeated unsuccessful drives. The forecast gives Texas Tech credit for offensive balance without assuming more return touchdowns, and it gives Colorado credit for passing production without assuming every promising possession becomes points.

SportsJaw's blended spread consensus favored Texas Tech -13.5 (-110) at 75 percent as of Sept. 28 at 05:00:50 UTC. That is a consensus share, not Texas Tech's probability of winning or covering. It adds context to the favorite's popularity, but neither following that preference nor opposing it supplies an independent reason to bet.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Colorado Buffaloes spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Texas Tech -13.5 (-110) and Colorado +13.5 (-110). The projected 14-point margin puts Texas Tech just half a point beyond the spread. That is a thin distinction for a forecast built largely around each team's latest game.

Hammond's interceptions and Colorado's passing production are credible threats to a comfortable Texas Tech win. Conversely, Colorado's difficulty extending drives makes taking the points unappealing without a stronger offensive case. Texas Tech is the winner selection, but the evidence leaves too much uncertainty around the winning margin to endorse either spread.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Colorado Buffaloes total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 50.5 (-110) and Under 50.5 (-110). The forecast totals 48 points, with Colorado's third-down struggles contributing to that restrained scoring estimate. Texas Tech's 49 points last week also included two defensive touchdowns, making that result a poor standalone argument for the Over.

The counterargument is offensive potential: Texas Tech gained 470 yards, and Colorado produced 280 passing yards despite scoring only 13 points. Better finishing or turnover-created opportunities could lift the total. A projection 2.5 points below the line is insufficient compensation for that uncertainty.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Colorado Buffaloes projected score

Game forecast: Texas Tech 31, Colorado 17. Texas Tech's recent rushing and passing balance earns the winner selection, while Colorado's unsuccessful third and fourth downs weigh against a sustained scoring challenge. Confidence is medium: the matchup supports an ordinary edge, with meaningful reasons to question the margin.

Colorado's strongest counterargument is that its passing game generated yardage at Baylor, and Hammond's three interceptions illustrate how Texas Tech could surrender opportunities. Those concerns matter more when evaluating a double-digit spread than when choosing the likely winner. The official SportsJaw wager is Pass. Neither side at 13.5 nor either direction at 50.5 offers enough demonstrated value.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

TXTECH31

COLO17

Projected winner Texas Tech Red RaidersConfidenceSlight Lean — Texas Tech Red Raiders
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5 (-110) and Colorado Buffaloes +13.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 50.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 50.5 (-110) and Under 50.5 (-110)

Sources

  • Legion ReportCollege Football Week 5 Schedule 2026: Every Game, Kickoff Times and Live Scores
  • Texas Tech AthleticsPrevious-game context: No. 11 Texas Tech tops Sam Houston, 49-14
  • University of Colorado AthleticsPrevious-game context: Buffaloes Fall In Waco To Open Big 12 Conference Play

SportsJaw Red Raiders vs Buffaloes game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Red Raiders vs Buffaloes matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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