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NCAAF PicksWed 7:00 PM ET
Kennesaw St. Owls logo
Kennesaw St.
Owls
1-6
versus
Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders logo
Middle Tenn. St.
Blue Raiders
4-3
NCAAF · Kennesaw St. Owls at Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders

Your Picks on Kennesaw St. vs Middle Tenn. St.

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Kennesaw St. Owls vs Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders Predictions October 28, 2026

Game time: October 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium — Murfreesboro, TN

Article updated Oct 25, 9:13 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Middle Tennessee will beat Kennesaw State 24-20 in our Oct. 28 forecast. The Blue Raiders' balanced offense against FIU, including 248 rushing yards, gives them the stronger recent performance entering this matchup. Kennesaw State's six-point showing against Liberty adds to that advantage, but the limited comparison leaves no actionable wager at Middle Tennessee -2.5 or the 49.5 total.

Kennesaw St. Owls vs Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders prediction and best bet

Middle Tennessee gets the pick because its latest win featured productive rushing, an interception-free passing performance and a long possession to finish the game. Those are useful ingredients against Kennesaw State, which struggled to score and surrendered two interceptions in its latest defeat.

The distinction is how much to trust that comparison. Middle Tennessee beat FIU 26-23 despite gaining 448 yards and forcing three turnovers. Kennesaw State lost 34-6 to Liberty, a different opponent presenting a different test. Those results favor the Blue Raiders, but they leave considerable uncertainty about Wednesday's margin. The forecast is Middle Tennessee 24, Kennesaw State 20. The official betting recommendation is Pass.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, in the 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT at Floyd Stadium. Broadcast: CBS Sports Network, with KSU Owl Network coverage also listed.

Records: Kennesaw St. Owls 1-6; Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders 4-3.

SportsJaw spreads: Kennesaw State +2.5 (-105); Middle Tennessee -2.5 (-115). Moneylines: Kennesaw State +114; Middle Tennessee -135.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 49.5 (-117) or Under 49.5 (-117).

Kennesaw St. Owls outlook

Kennesaw State's Oct. 22 loss to Liberty left two immediate offensive priorities: protect the ball and make its yardage count. The Owls gained 297 yards but scored only six points. Liberty finished with 402 yards and held possession for 37:05, compared with Kennesaw State's 22:55. Wednesday's forecast depends partly on the Owls improving that scoring return.

Rickie Collins completed 15 of 26 passes for 124 yards and two interceptions. Landon Varnes completed nine of 15 for 111 yards. Together, they produced 235 passing yards, showing that the offense could move the ball through the air even during a lopsided defeat. That production is a reason to leave room for an improved scoring performance.

Dylan Gary and Javon Rogers each caught five passes, finishing with 43 and 42 receiving yards, respectively. Boogie Woods III led the rushing effort with 38 yards. The modest rushing lead makes additional ground production an obvious route toward a more balanced attack.

Those are priorities, not promised improvements. Neither quarterback's appearance against Liberty confirms who will start Wednesday. At 1-6, the Owls need a substantially cleaner performance to turn this forecast into an upset.

Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders outlook

Middle Tennessee's Oct. 20 win at FIU offers a specific offensive case for choosing the Blue Raiders. Terrence Brown Jr. carried 18 times for a career-high 158 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown. He added 25 receiving yards for 183 all-purpose yards, giving the offense production beyond his work on the ground.

The Blue Raiders finished with 248 rushing yards and 448 total yards. Roman Gagliano completed 16 passes for 200 yards and a touchdown without an interception, while adding 41 rushing yards. The school identified it as his second consecutive 200-yard passing game. His contribution matters because Wednesday's winning script need not depend entirely on Brown repeating a career performance.

There was also a convincing finish. Middle Tennessee consumed the final six minutes with an 11-play, 71-yard drive. That possession showed how its offense could protect a narrow lead against FIU.

The qualification is that substantial yardage still produced only 26 points. Dominic Bourgeois made all four field-goal attempts, including kicks from 51 and 50 yards, and the defense forced three turnovers. Middle Tennessee earned the win, but another favorable turnover count and another perfect kicking performance should not be assumed.

Key matchup factors

Possession is the most compelling connection between the recent games. Middle Tennessee finished FIU with an extended drive; Kennesaw State spent much of the Liberty game without the ball. If the Blue Raiders can sustain their rushing production, they have a plausible way to limit the Owls' opportunities while protecting a lead.

Turnovers could pull the result in either direction. Collins threw two interceptions against Liberty, while Middle Tennessee forced three FIU turnovers. A repeat would favor the home side, but these are single-game results rather than established rates.

The schedule also gives Middle Tennessee two more days between games. That is a preparation advantage on paper, without implying any verified difference in player health.

Kennesaw St. Owls vs Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Middle Tennessee -2.5 (-115) and Kennesaw State +2.5 (-105). The projected four-point win puts the Blue Raiders just beyond the spread, but that small cushion is vulnerable to ordinary scoring variation.

Middle Tennessee's rushing performance supports the winner selection. The betting concern is relying on one strong outing against FIU to predict its margin against a different defense. Kennesaw State's passing yardage offers a counterargument, although it came with little scoring against Liberty. Neither side earns a wager at these prices.

Kennesaw St. Owls vs Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 49.5 (-117) and Under 49.5 (-117). The 24-20 forecast totals 44 points, giving the projection an Under tilt.

The scoring case rests on Kennesaw State's recent offensive struggles and the possibility of sustained Middle Tennessee rushing possessions. The counterargument is that the Blue Raiders just gained 448 yards, while turnovers could create short scoring opportunities. There is no established pace or season scoring profile here to strengthen either direction. A projected total below 49.5 is insufficient reason to pay -117 for the Under.

Kennesaw St. Owls vs Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders projected score

Game forecast: Middle Tennessee 24, Kennesaw State 20. The Blue Raiders get the edge through their recent combination of rushing production and Gagliano's passing contribution. Their ability to finish the FIU game with a six-minute possession supplies a credible closing scenario if Wednesday is tight.

The strongest objection is the narrow return from that productive FIU performance: a three-point win despite three takeaways and four successful field goals. Kennesaw State also generated enough passing yardage against Liberty to make an improved offensive result plausible.

Confidence is low. Middle Tennessee is the winner pick, but the comparison is too dependent on recent games against different opponents to justify a wager. The single official SportsJaw recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Owls20

Blue Raiders24

Projected winner Middle Tenn. St. Blue RaidersConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders -2.5 (-115) and Kennesaw St. Owls +2.5 (-105).

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 49.5 (-117) and Under 49.5 (-117).

Sources

  • Kennesaw State University AthleticsOwls Fall to Flames
  • Middle Tennessee State University AthleticsBrown Jr.'s career-night fuels Blue Raider win at FIU
  • CBS Sports / Associated PressTerrence Brown leads Middle Tennessee past FIU 26-23

SportsJaw Owls vs Blue Raiders game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Owls vs Blue Raiders matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Kennesaw St. Owls+121 → +115Moved
  • Moneyline · Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders-121 → -138Moved
  • Spread · Kennesaw St. Owls+3.5 (-122) → +2.5 (-105)Moved
  • Spread · Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders-3.5 (+100) → -2.5 (-115)Moved
  • Total · Over50.5 (-110) → 49.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under50.5 (-110) → 49.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Kennesaw St. Owls
1-6 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 2-8-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders
4-3 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-25T13:13:47.877Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-09-27Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders 16 · Kennesaw St. Owls 24
  • 2024-10-15Kennesaw St. Owls 5 · Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders 14
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