SportsJaw
LeaderboardToday's GamesBest BetsConsensus PicksMake Picks
Login / Sign In
Today's GamesLatest PredictionsToday’s Best BetsConsensus PicksTeam PredictionsHead-to-Head MatchupsSJ CoinsAbout SportsJawContact UsLogin / Sign In
HomeMatchupsMake PicksLeaders
SportsJaw

The social platform for sports bettors.

Explore SportsJaw

  • Today’s Picks
  • Predictions
  • Best Bets
  • Leaderboard
  • Make Picks
  • Consensus Picks
  • Team Predictions
  • Head-to-Head
  • Game Briefing

Picks by Sport

  • NFL Picks
  • NCAAF Picks
  • NBA Picks
  • NCAAB Picks
  • MLB Picks
  • NHL Picks

About SportsJaw

  • How It Works
  • SJ Coins
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Contact Us

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

© 2026 SportsJaw. For entertainment purposes only. SportsJaw does not accept or place wagers.

NCAAF PicksTue 8:00 PM ET
Sam Houston St. Bearkats logo
Sam Houston St.
Bearkats
1-6
versus
Missouri St. Bears logo
Missouri St.
Bears
2-5
NCAAF · Sam Houston St. Bearkats at Missouri St. Bears

Your Picks on Sam Houston St. vs Missouri St.

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
Spread
Moneyline
Total

Sam Houston St. Bearkats vs Missouri St. Bears Predictions October 27, 2026

Game time: October 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: Robert W. Plaster Stadium — Springfield, MO

Article updated Oct 25, 9:08 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Missouri State will beat Sam Houston, Missouri State 30, Sam Houston 24, with Henry Belin IV and Isaiah Myers providing the strongest matchup advantage after their productive passing performance at Delaware. The Bears' defensive struggles and injury concerns make that a low-confidence forecast. Neither Missouri State -6.5 nor the 51.5 total offers a convincing wager at the supplied prices.

Sam Houston St. Bearkats vs Missouri St. Bears prediction and best bet

Missouri State gets the winner call because its latest offensive performance offers a stronger foundation for sustained scoring. The Bears gained 431 yards against Delaware, while Sam Houston managed 246 against New Mexico State. Belin's connection with Myers gives the home team a persuasive route to victory, particularly if the Bearkats struggle again to generate rushing yards.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. Missouri State lost despite that production, allowing 482 yards and turning the ball over twice on possessions Delaware converted into touchdowns. Its injury concerns add uncertainty. A projected six-point victory leaves little room at Missouri State -6.5, and Sam Houston's own offensive limitations make backing the underdog uncomfortable.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date: Tuesday, October 27, 2026, in the 2026 college football season.

Venue: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, Missouri. Television: ESPN2.

Records: Sam Houston St. Bearkats 1-6; Missouri St. Bears 2-5.

SportsJaw spreads: Missouri State -6.5 (-101); Sam Houston +6.5 (-113).

SportsJaw moneylines: Missouri State -210; Sam Houston +186.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 51.5 (-110); Under 51.5 (-110). This is the teams' first meeting as Conference USA and FBS opponents.

Sam Houston St. Bearkats outlook

Sam Houston's October 21 loss to New Mexico State showed both its capacity for an explosive passing play and the difficulty of building an offense around one. Landyn Locke completed 18 of 31 passes for 235 yards in the 30-24 defeat. Tim Burns Jr. caught four passes for 117 yards, including an 81-yard touchdown that accounted for a substantial share of the team's production.

The surrounding numbers were less encouraging: 11 rushing yards, nine first downs and 118 penalty yards. Those figures describe an offense that struggled to sustain possessions in that game. Against Missouri State, another performance with so little rushing production would put considerable pressure on Locke to convert passing opportunities and on Burns to create another major gain.

The Bearkats did keep competing. Trailing 30-17 entering the fourth quarter, they closed within six on MJ Dowdy's one-yard touchdown run with four minutes remaining. That response helps explain a close forecast, though it did not prevent a fourth consecutive defeat. Sam Houston's best route to an upset is to pair its demonstrated passing threat with cleaner possessions and a more useful rushing contribution.

Missouri St. Bears outlook

Missouri State's passing performance at Delaware is the central reason to favor the Bears. Belin completed 26 of 35 passes for 337 yards and two touchdowns on October 20. Myers supplied 11 receptions, 242 yards and both receiving touchdowns. Missouri State finished with 431 total yards, including 94 rushing, and led 28-24 at halftime.

The second half changed the game completely. Delaware scored 37 points after the break and won 61-38, finishing with 482 yards, including 232 on the ground. Two Missouri State turnovers became 14 Delaware points in the third and fourth quarters. The lesson for this matchup is straightforward: productive passing alone will not protect a lead if the Bears surrender rushing yards and give away possessions.

Injuries complicate the offensive outlook. An October 23 Springfield News-Leader report said starting running back Breezy Dubar and receiver Mekhi Miller missed the Delaware game. Coach Casey Woods also said running back Ramone Green Jr. and offensive lineman Logan Scrivner would miss some time, without specifying their availability against Sam Houston. Woods described the injury list as the deepest of the season. That uncertainty tempers expectations for the supporting cast around Belin and Myers.

Key matchup factors

The pivotal question is whether Sam Houston can exploit Missouri State's recent vulnerability on the ground. Delaware's rushing success creates an opening, but the Bearkats enter after gaining only 11 rushing yards themselves. Expecting an automatic turnaround would overlook that mismatch between opportunity and recent execution.

Possession quality matters just as much. Sam Houston's penalties and Missouri State's turnovers damaged their previous performances in different ways. Reducing either problem could swing a close game. Missouri State's 4-1 home record within its last 12 October games offers some favorable historical context, but the current passing production carries more weight in this forecast than a calendar-based trend.

Sam Houston St. Bearkats vs Missouri St. Bears spread prediction

Pass on Missouri State -6.5 (-101) and Sam Houston +6.5 (-113). The Bears have the stronger recent offensive showing, but asking them to win by seven or more brings their defensive and personnel concerns into sharper focus.

The forecast of Missouri State 30, Sam Houston 24 falls on the underdog's side of the spread by only half a point. That is too small a cushion to treat as a meaningful betting advantage, especially with Sam Houston coming off nine first downs and a fourth straight loss. Neither spread earns an endorsement.

Sam Houston St. Bearkats vs Missouri St. Bears total prediction

Pass on Over 51.5 (-110) and Under 51.5 (-110). The projected 54 points lean toward the Over, with Missouri State's passing production and recent defensive difficulties supplying the scoring argument.

The counterweight is offensive consistency. Sam Houston scored 24 against New Mexico State but produced just 246 yards, with an 81-yard touchdown contributing heavily. Missouri State's injuries could also limit its scoring options. A projection 2.5 points above the total leaves a modest cushion against those concerns. The recent results suggest scoring possibilities without making either total price compelling.

Sam Houston St. Bearkats vs Missouri St. Bears projected score

Game forecast: Missouri State 30, Sam Houston 24. The Bears' passing attack gets the deciding vote because Belin and Myers demonstrated enough production at Delaware to make Missouri State the preferred winner here. Sam Houston's most recent rushing and first-down totals make an upset harder to project.

The strongest counterargument is that Missouri State's own mistakes and defensive problems can erase an offensive advantage, just as they did after its halftime lead at Delaware. Burns also gives Sam Houston a demonstrated explosive threat. Confidence is low, reflecting those competing signals and the Bears' injury uncertainty. The spread recommendation is Pass, the total recommendation is Pass, and the single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Bearkats24

Bears30

Projected winner Missouri St. BearsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Missouri St. Bears -6.5 (-101) and Sam Houston St. Bearkats +6.5 (-113).

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Missouri State AthleticsFootball Bears Back Home Tuesday to Host Sam Houston
  • Sam Houston AthleticsPrevious-game context: NM State pushes past Sam Houston 30-24
  • University of Delaware AthleticsPrevious-game context: Minicucci Ties UD Single-Game Passing Touchdowns Record as Football Dominates Missouri State, 61-38

SportsJaw Bearkats vs Bears game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Bearkats vs Bears matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Sam Houston St. Bearkats+167 → +185Moved
  • Moneyline · Missouri St. Bears-182 → -225Moved
  • Spread · Sam Houston St. Bearkats+6.5 (-120) → +6.5 (-115)Moved
  • Spread · Missouri St. Bears-6.5 (-102) → -6.5 (-105)Moved
  • Total · Over51.5 (-117) → 50.5 (-115)Moved
  • Total · Under51.5 (-113) → 50.5 (-105)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Sam Houston St. Bearkats
1-6 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 4-6-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Missouri St. Bears
2-5 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-25T13:08:30.708Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. Missouri State lost despite that production, allowing 482 yards and turning the ball over twice on possessions Delaware converted into touchdowns. Its injury concerns add uncertainty. A projected six-point victory leaves little room at Missouri State -6.5, and Sam Houston's own offensive limitations make backing the underdog uncomfortable.

Injuries complicate the offensive outlook. An October 23 Springfield News-Leader report said starting running back Breezy Dubar and receiver Mekhi Miller missed the Delaware game. Coach Casey Woods also said running back Ramone Green Jr. and offensive lineman Logan Scrivner would miss some time, without specifying their availability against Sam Houston. Woods described the injury list as the deepest of the season. That uncertainty tempers expectations for the supporting cast around Belin and Myers.

The counterweight is offensive consistency. Sam Houston scored 24 against New Mexico State but produced just 246 yards, with an 81-yard touchdown contributing heavily. Missouri State's injuries could also limit its scoring options. A projection 2.5 points above the total leaves a modest cushion against those concerns. The recent results suggest scoring possibilities without making either total price compelling.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

Keep browsing

More NCAAF matchups

Compare predictions, consensus picks and recorded odds for other NCAAF games on this slate.

View all NCAAF games
NCAAFTue 7:00 PM
DELEWAR-2.5 (-110)
wku+2.5 (-110)
O/U58.5