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  3. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Troy Trojans
Sat 4:00 PM ET
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks logo
Louisiana-Monroe
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0-6
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Troy Trojans logo
Troy
Trojans14
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Team1234T
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks0301821
Troy Trojans700714
NCAAF · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans

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Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Troy Trojans prediction, odds and best bet

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET

Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) — Troy, AL

Article updated Oct 24, 1:23 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Troy will beat Louisiana-Monroe, with a projected score of Troy 34, Louisiana-Monroe 17. The Trojans’ strong home offense faces a Warhawks defense allowing 483.2 yards and 41.2 points per game, giving Troy the strongest matchup advantage. Troy -11.5 (-112) is the official wager with medium confidence. The total of 50.5 is a Pass because the scoring evidence cuts both ways.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Troy Trojans prediction and best bet

Troy -11.5 (-112) is the best bet, supported by more than the difference in records. The Trojans have averaged 477.0 yards and 37.7 points across three home wins. Their season rushing average of 204.7 yards gives them a productive starting point against a ULM defense surrendering substantial yardage and points.

The other half of the cover equation is ULM’s ability to answer. Its 29.6-percent third-down conversion rate and Troy’s strong red-zone defense favor the Trojans when possessions become difficult to finish. A double-digit margin remains vulnerable to an improved Warhawks offense, but the combination of Troy’s home production and ULM’s defensive struggles supports laying 11.5.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, at 3 p.m. CT, or 4 p.m. EDT, for this 2026 college football matchup.

Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama. Broadcast: ESPN+.

Records: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 0-6; Troy Trojans 3-3.

SportsJaw spreads: Louisiana-Monroe +11.5 (-108); Troy -11.5 (-112). Moneylines: Louisiana-Monroe +446; Troy -600.

SportsJaw total: Over 50.5 (-110) or Under 50.5 (-110). The spread is the official selection.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks outlook

Louisiana-Monroe’s immediate challenge is recovering from its 24-0 loss to Louisiana Tech on Oct. 17. The game was scoreless at halftime, but the Warhawks never found an offensive answer. Aidan Armenta completed 14 of 24 passes for 119 yards with two interceptions and added 25 rushing yards.

Armenta enters this matchup with 974 passing yards, six touchdown passes, three interceptions and a 63.4-percent completion rate. His season completion percentage offers a better picture than the shutout alone, although completions must translate into longer possessions. ULM averages 342.5 total yards, 120.5 rushing yards and 20.0 points per game.

The Warhawks convert 29.6 percent of third downs, ranking 133rd in FBS, and score on 76.5 percent of red-zone trips. Those figures help explain why a moderate yardage total has not produced more points. Against Troy, finishing opportunities looks particularly challenging.

There is meaningful counterevidence to another lopsided defeat: ULM lost only 26-20 at UAB and scored 35 in a 52-35 loss at South Alabama. Those road results show different scoring possibilities. Its defense, however, allows 483.2 yards and 41.2 points per game, leaving the offense with a demanding assignment.

Troy Trojans outlook

Troy’s home and road results tell sharply different stories. Its three home games have produced averages of 37.7 points and 477.0 yards, compared with 11.0 points and 328.3 yards on the road. Returning home is a meaningful part of this forecast, although three games remain a limited sample.

The Trojans’ rushing offense ranks 27th nationally at 204.7 yards per game. Their Oct. 6 home victory over Southern Miss supplied the biggest example: Troy rushed for 437 yards in a 55-34 win. That performance shows the offense’s scoring potential, but allowing 34 points also cautions against expecting an effortless defensive afternoon.

Across the season, Troy averages 402.7 total yards and 24.3 points. Will Crowder has 1,112 passing yards, nine touchdown passes, four interceptions and a 56.8-percent completion rate. Those passing totals complement the ground production without making this forecast depend on an exceptional passing performance.

The strongest recent warning is Troy’s 33-6 loss at Louisiana on Oct. 17. Its season defense allows 350.0 yards and 25.5 points per game, so there is room for ULM to improve on last week’s shutout. Troy’s best defensive indicator is allowing scores on just 68.2 percent of opposing red-zone trips.

Key matchup factors

Finishing drives could separate the teams more than simply moving the ball. ULM’s third-down difficulties create pressure to make early downs count, while Troy’s red-zone defense threatens to limit the reward when the Warhawks advance. That combination supports a Troy margin without requiring another ULM shutout.

The SportsJaw community snapshot updated Oct. 24 at 00:30:48 UTC lists ULM +11.5 (-106) as its spread leader at 50 percent. That is an even split, not a strong community endorsement or a win probability. The snapshot’s -106 differs from the actionable SportsJaw price of ULM +11.5 (-108). Neither the community label nor its percentage outweighs the matchup case for Troy.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Troy Trojans spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Troy Trojans -11.5 (-112). The projected 17-point margin clears the supplied spread, with Troy’s home offense and ULM’s defensive averages supplying the substantive case. The projection is an estimate, not a measured probability of covering.

ULM’s six-point loss at UAB is a reminder that its winless record alone cannot justify laying this number. Troy also enters after scoring only six points at Louisiana. Those results keep confidence at medium. Even with those reservations, Troy has enough offensive production and a favorable scoring matchup to warrant the spread selection.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Troy Trojans total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on 50.5, with Over 50.5 (-110) and Under 50.5 (-110) both unselected. The projected 51 points sit almost directly on the line, leaving no useful cushion.

ULM’s shutout, weak third-down conversion rate and difficult red-zone matchup make a lower-scoring game plausible. Troy’s home scoring average and ULM’s 41.2 points allowed per game pull the other way. The Warhawks also scored 35 at South Alabama. With credible scoring paths on both sides of 50.5, the spread offers the stronger wager.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Troy Trojans Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Troy Trojans 34, Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 17. Troy’s productive rushing offense and stronger home output should create enough scoring opportunities to win comfortably. ULM’s difficulties extending and finishing drives make it harder to envision the Warhawks matching that pace.

The strongest counterargument is the contrast between Troy’s latest six-point performance and ULM’s more competitive road outing at UAB. A repeat of those performances would threaten the cover. The forecast gives greater weight to Troy’s home production and ULM’s season defensive struggles, with medium confidence. Troy Trojans -11.5 (-112) is the single official SportsJaw wager. The total of 50.5 remains a Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Warhawks17

Trojans34

Projected winner Troy TrojansConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Spread: Troy Trojans -11.5 (-112)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on total 50.5: Over 50.5 (-110) and Under 50.5 (-110)

Sources

  • Troy University AthleticsTroy Hosts ULM on Military Appreciation Day at The Vet
  • The Associated Press via AOLTroy hosts UL Monroe in Sun Belt action
  • University of Louisiana Monroe AthleticsULM Football Hits the Road for Test at Troy
#LouisianaMonroeWarhawks#TroyTrojans

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Warhawks vs Trojans game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Warhawks vs Trojans matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks+625 → +450Moved
  • Moneyline · Troy Trojans-950 → -600Moved
  • Spread · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks+17.5 (-110) → +13.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Troy Trojans-17.5 (-110) → -13.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over50.5 (-117) → 50.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under50.5 (-104) → 50.5 (-106)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
0-6 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Troy Trojans
3-3 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 1-9-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-19T04:08:27.413Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-10-18Troy Trojans 37 · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 14
  • 2024-09-28Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 13 · Troy Trojans 9
Final result

Matchup pick recap

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks defeated Troy Trojans 21-14

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks defeated Troy Trojans 21-14 on October 24, 2026, a 7-point decision in the series. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks' strongest period was the 4th quarter, when it outscored its opponent 18-7. Against SportsJaw's recorded Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +13.5 (-110) spread, Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks covered, while the 35 combined points finished under the recorded total of 50.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerTroy TrojansLoss
  • SpreadSpread: Troy Trojans -11.5 (-112)Loss
  • TotalPass on total 50.5: Over 50.5 (-110) and Under 50.5 (-110)Pass

Tipster picks

  • RcollinsSpread · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +11.5 (-107)Win
  • EmcSpread · Troy Trojans -11.5 (-113)Loss
  • CodexSpread · Troy Trojans -11.5 (-108)Loss